Difference between revisions of "TD10 (2145)"
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|+ colspan="7" nowrap="nowrap"| <small>Current warnings and watches</small> | |+ colspan="7" nowrap="nowrap"| <small>Current warnings and watches</small> | ||
|- | |- | ||
| − | |http:// | + | |http://img141.imageshack.us/my.php?image=watchwarnnstd4510pm1.png |
|} | |} | ||
{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel | {{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel | ||
|category=cat4|type=Category 4 major hurricane | |category=cat4|type=Category 4 major hurricane | ||
| − | |local time= | + | |local time=0800 |
| − | |date=June | + | |date=June 13 |
|year=2145 | |year=2145 | ||
| − | |location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13. | + | |location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.8°S 4.6°E]<br/>About 2000 km (1250 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]] |
| − | |winds= | + | |winds=230 km/h (145 mph) |
|windtype=1-minute sustained | |windtype=1-minute sustained | ||
| − | |pressure= | + | |pressure=937 hPa |
|movement=West at 24 km/h (15 mph) | |movement=West at 24 km/h (15 mph) | ||
|advisory=latest}} | |advisory=latest}} | ||
| Line 18: | Line 18: | ||
---- | ---- | ||
4510 TCWC HPCOR | 4510 TCWC HPCOR | ||
| − | HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY | + | HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 011 |
[[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN | MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN | ||
| − | + | 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145 | |
| − | + | ||
GRIEL CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... | GRIEL CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... | ||
| − | AT | + | AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM PRUBDABLIA |
| − | SOUTHWARD FOR 385 KM | + | SOUTHWARD FOR 385 KM AS WELL AS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE OF |
| − | + | ANIMUS ANI-01 IN THE SANXAY STRAIT. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | AT | + | AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR |
| − | + | THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | AT | + | AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN |
| − | + | EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO AND THE ADJACENT COAST. | |
| − | AT | + | AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN |
| − | LONGITUDE | + | COAST OF VENERATIO VEN-01 HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM |
| + | WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH. | ||
| + | |||
| + | AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES | ||
| + | IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VEN-01 HAVE | ||
| + | BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS. | ||
| + | |||
| + | TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE | ||
| + | POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. | ||
| + | TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE | ||
| + | EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO | ||
| + | LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WATCHES | ||
| + | MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA... | ||
| + | GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF | ||
| + | LIFE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT | ||
| + | HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 | ||
| + | HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE | ||
| + | COMPLETE. | ||
| + | |||
| + | AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH | ||
| + | LONGITUDE 4.6 EAST... OR ABOUT 2000 KM... 1250 MILES EAST OF PUERTO | ||
NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR | NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR | ||
| − | + | 230 KM/H... 145 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS | |
| − | CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. | + | CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... |
| − | SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE | + | AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED. |
| − | IS | + | THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE |
| + | IS 937 HPA/MBAR. | ||
| − | TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO | + | TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 KM... |
| − | + | 280 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... | |
| − | WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO | + | WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 KM... |
| − | + | 160 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. | |
HURRICANE ADVISORY/ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE UNV SERVICIO | HURRICANE ADVISORY/ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE UNV SERVICIO | ||
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INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS OR | INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS OR | ||
EVACUATION ORDERS. | EVACUATION ORDERS. | ||
| + | |||
| + | DISCUSSION... | ||
| + | GRIEL HAS BECOME THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO FAR THIS YEAR... SURPASSING | ||
| + | DEADLY HURRICANE YURI. NO VISIBLE SIGNS THAT THIS STRENGTHENING TREND | ||
| + | WILL BUCKLE... AND SO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. INITIAL MOTION | ||
| + | IS ALMOST DUE WEST... 278/12. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... GRIEL WILL | ||
| + | MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. | ||
OFFICIAL FORECAST | OFFICIAL FORECAST | ||
| − | INITIAL TIME IS 13/ | + | INITIAL TIME IS 13/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT |
| − | INITIAL... 13. | + | INITIAL... 13.8 S 04.6 E...125 KT... CAT 4 |
| − | + | 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...130 KT | |
| − | 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...130 KT | + | 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...135 KT <!-- 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...140 KT... CAT 5 --> |
| − | + | 14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...145 KT... CAT 5 <!-- 14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...150 KT... CAT 5 --> | |
| − | + | 14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...155 KT <!-- 15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...145 KT --> | |
| − | + | 15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT... CAT 4 <!-- 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...120 KT 15/2100H... 13.9 S 00.8 W...105 KT 16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT... CAT 3 --> | |
| − | 16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT... CAT 3 | + | 16/0900H... 13.7 S 02.0 W... 95 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL <!-- 16/1500H... 13.6 S 02.5 W... 75 KT...VERY CLOSE TO LAND 16/2100H... 13.0 S 03.5 W... 50 KT... INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 17/0300H... 11.0 S 05.2 W... 25 KT... EXTRATROPICAL/DISSIPATING INLAND --> |
| − | + | 17/0900H...DISSIPATED OVER WATER NORTH OF VASSFORCIA LA SERENÍSIMA | |
| − | REPEATING THE | + | REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 4.6 EAST. MAXIMUM |
| − | SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR | + | SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 230 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL |
| − | PRESSURE | + | PRESSURE 937 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. |
| − | THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT | + | THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT... |
| − | + | WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 12 PM HPT. | |
| − | + | FORECASTERS RINDLI/HUNTER | |
---- | ---- | ||
ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR | ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR | ||
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HURRICANE GRIEL... | HURRICANE GRIEL... | ||
| − | HURRICANE GRIEL | + | HURRICANE GRIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. ITS CURRENT PATH |
| − | NEAR CIUDAD ESTADIO/PUERTO NUEVO... | + | PROJECTS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO LANDFALL NEAR, OR DIRECTLY ON |
| − | HURRICANE | + | CIUDAD ESTADIO/PUERTO NUEVO. HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL |
| − | + | STORM WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT... | |
| + | |||
| + | RECOMMENDED - | ||
| + | EVACUATIONS OF ALL RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AREAS | ||
| + | EVACUATIONS OF ALL RESIDENTS STAYING IN APARTMENT BUILDINGS | ||
| + | IMMEDIATE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS | ||
| + | RAISING SAFETY/SECURITY LEVEL IN THE NATION... IF APPROPRIATE | ||
| + | |||
| + | EXPECTED - | ||
| + | WINDS OF NEAR 180 KM/H SUSTAINED | ||
| + | GUSTS OF NEAR 205 KM/H | ||
| + | STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 2.5 METRES | ||
| + | HIGH TIDES | ||
| − | THE | + | DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF STORMS, THE GOVERNMENT IS URGED |
| − | + | TO PREPARE FOR THE FOLLOWING POSSIBILITIES... | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | WINDS OF UP TO 225 KM/H SUSTAINED | |
| − | + | GUSTS OF UP TO 295 KM/H SUSTAINED | |
| − | + | STORM SURGES OF UP TO 8 METRES | |
| − | THE | + | WHILE INLAND... GRIEL WILL DUMP MUCH RAIN OVER THE COUNTRY. THIS |
| − | + | MAY ACCUMULATE TO 500 MM (20 INCHES) IN TOTAL. GRIEL'S PROJECTED | |
| − | + | INLAND TRACK AFFECTS MANY CITIES... INCLUDING THE CAPITAL OF | |
| + | VASSFFORCIA. HOWEVER... MANY OF THESE CITIES WILL SEE ONLY WINDS | ||
| + | OF LESS THAN 65 KM/H SUSTAINED. IN ANY CASE... IT IS WORTH PREPARING | ||
| + | FOR MORE THAN EXPECTED... JUST IN CASE... ALTHOUGH NO EVACUATION | ||
| + | ORDERS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED INLAND... EXCEPT FOR TOWNS NEAR | ||
| + | RIVERS WHICH MAY OVERFLOW. | ||
ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ||
DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS | DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS | ||
JUNE 13, 2145 | JUNE 13, 2145 | ||
Revision as of 07:37, 24 September 2006
|
| Hurricane Griel | |
|---|---|
| Category 4 major hurricane | |
| As of: | 0800 local time June 13, 2145 |
| Location: | 13.8°S 4.6°E About 2000 km (1250 miles) east of Puerto Nuevo, Vassfforcia |
| Maximum winds: |
230 km/h (145 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 937 hPa |
| Movement: | West at 24 km/h (15 mph) |
| See latest advisory below. Past advisories and discussions available here | |
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 011 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145 GRIEL CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD FOR 385 KM AS WELL AS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE OF ANIMUS ANI-01 IN THE SANXAY STRAIT. AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO AND THE ADJACENT COAST. AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF VENERATIO VEN-01 HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH. AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VEN-01 HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WATCHES MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 4.6 EAST... OR ABOUT 2000 KM... 1250 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 230 KM/H... 145 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 HPA/MBAR. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 KM... 280 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 KM... 160 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. HURRICANE ADVISORY/ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE UNV SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL... PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL BULLETINS FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS OR EVACUATION ORDERS. DISCUSSION... GRIEL HAS BECOME THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO FAR THIS YEAR... SURPASSING DEADLY HURRICANE YURI. NO VISIBLE SIGNS THAT THIS STRENGTHENING TREND WILL BUCKLE... AND SO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS ALMOST DUE WEST... 278/12. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... GRIEL WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 13/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 04.6 E...125 KT... CAT 4 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...130 KT 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...135 KT 14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...145 KT... CAT 5 14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...155 KT 15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT... CAT 4 16/0900H... 13.7 S 02.0 W... 95 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL 17/0900H...DISSIPATED OVER WATER NORTH OF VASSFORCIA LA SERENÍSIMA REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 4.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 230 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT... WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 12 PM HPT. FORECASTERS RINDLI/HUNTER
ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE REGARDING HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE... FOR THE GOVERNMENTS OF LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... AND VASSFFORCIA... AS WELL AS OTHER HEARTLAND GOVERNMENTS CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF HURRICANE GRIEL... HURRICANE GRIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. ITS CURRENT PATH PROJECTS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO LANDFALL NEAR, OR DIRECTLY ON CIUDAD ESTADIO/PUERTO NUEVO. HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT... RECOMMENDED - EVACUATIONS OF ALL RESIDENTS IN LOW-LYING AREAS EVACUATIONS OF ALL RESIDENTS STAYING IN APARTMENT BUILDINGS IMMEDIATE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS RAISING SAFETY/SECURITY LEVEL IN THE NATION... IF APPROPRIATE EXPECTED - WINDS OF NEAR 180 KM/H SUSTAINED GUSTS OF NEAR 205 KM/H STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 2.5 METRES HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE NATURE OF STORMS, THE GOVERNMENT IS URGED TO PREPARE FOR THE FOLLOWING POSSIBILITIES... WINDS OF UP TO 225 KM/H SUSTAINED GUSTS OF UP TO 295 KM/H SUSTAINED STORM SURGES OF UP TO 8 METRES WHILE INLAND... GRIEL WILL DUMP MUCH RAIN OVER THE COUNTRY. THIS MAY ACCUMULATE TO 500 MM (20 INCHES) IN TOTAL. GRIEL'S PROJECTED INLAND TRACK AFFECTS MANY CITIES... INCLUDING THE CAPITAL OF VASSFFORCIA. HOWEVER... MANY OF THESE CITIES WILL SEE ONLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 65 KM/H SUSTAINED. IN ANY CASE... IT IS WORTH PREPARING FOR MORE THAN EXPECTED... JUST IN CASE... ALTHOUGH NO EVACUATION ORDERS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED INLAND... EXCEPT FOR TOWNS NEAR RIVERS WHICH MAY OVERFLOW. ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS JUNE 13, 2145
