Difference between revisions of "TD10 (2145)"
From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
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|+ colspan="7" nowrap="nowrap"| <small>Current warnings and watches</small> | |+ colspan="7" nowrap="nowrap"| <small>Current warnings and watches</small> | ||
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| − | |http:// | + | |http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/7509/watchwarnnstd4510hm8.png |
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{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel | {{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel | ||
| − | |category= | + | |category=cat5|type=Category 5 major hurricane |
| − | |local time= | + | |local time=0200 |
| − | |date=June | + | |date=June 14 |
|year=2145 | |year=2145 | ||
| − | |location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.8°S | + | |location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.8°S 2.3°E]<br/>About 1475 km (920 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]] |
| − | |winds= | + | |winds=260 km/h (160 mph) |
|windtype=1-minute sustained | |windtype=1-minute sustained | ||
| − | |pressure= | + | |pressure=903 hPa |
| − | |movement=West at | + | |movement=West at 31 km/h (20 mph) |
|advisory=latest}} | |advisory=latest}} | ||
<div style="clear: both"></div> | <div style="clear: both"></div> | ||
---- | ---- | ||
4510 TCWC HPCOR | 4510 TCWC HPCOR | ||
| − | HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY | + | HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 014 |
[[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN | MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN | ||
| − | + | 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145 | |
| − | GRIEL | + | AFLE AIRCRAFT FINDS CENTRE OF GRIEL TO THE LEFT/WEST OF EXPECTED |
| + | POSITION... A DROPSONDE MEASURED 140-KNOT WINDS AND THIS MAY NOT | ||
| + | EVEN BE REPRESENTATIVE AS THIS MEASUREMENT WAS NOT TAKEN FROM | ||
| + | THE CENTRE... | ||
| − | + | IN SUMMARY... GRIEL IS CLOSER TO VASSFFORCIA THAN THOUGHT... AND | |
| − | + | IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... THE FIRST | |
| − | + | CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OR CYCLONE THAT THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND | |
| + | MET SERVICE HAS HAD TO WARN ON SINCE HURRICANE SANDRA IN 2139... | ||
| − | + | A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF | |
| − | + | MONTAURA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE EDGE OF THE HURRICANE | |
| + | WARNING AREA. | ||
| − | + | A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN MONTAURA | |
| − | + | COAST... CIUDAD ESTADIO DE PUERTO NUEVO ... AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN | |
| − | + | IBPORTIA COAST NEAR THE CAPE. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE | TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE | ||
| Line 47: | Line 48: | ||
SHOULD BE COMPLETE. | SHOULD BE COMPLETE. | ||
| − | + | WITH THE FINDINGS OF THE AFLE AIRCRAFT... THIS HAS GOTTEN MORE | |
| − | + | COMPLICATED. AS WITH ANY LARGE SYSTEM... EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES | |
| − | + | ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY WHEN THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED THE HIGHER | |
| − | + | ECHLEONS OF THE INTENSITY SCALE. | |
| − | AT | + | THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 140 KNOTS... CATEGORY 5... BASED ON |
| − | LONGITUDE | + | THE DROPSONDE... WHICH ALSO MEASURED A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 907 HPA. |
| + | ASSUMING THAT THIS DROPSONDE DID NOT CAPTURE THE FULL STRENGTH... IT | ||
| + | WAS NOT TAKEN FROM THE CENTRE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FOR THIS | ||
| + | ADVISORY IS SET AT 903 HPA. | ||
| + | |||
| + | THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO COMPLICATED DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF GRIEL. | ||
| + | SINCE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTRE TO THE WEST OF WHAT WAS EXPECTED... | ||
| + | I WILL BE GOING WITH A TENTATIVE 285/17... WEST AT 17 KNOTS. | ||
| + | |||
| + | GRIEL IS A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH THE POWER TO KILL. ALREADY | ||
| + | 30 INDIRECT DEATHS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM GRIEL DUE TO EVACUATIONS. | ||
| + | GRIEL'S TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL START TO LASH THE WARNING AREAS | ||
| + | WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. | ||
| + | |||
| + | AT 3 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH | ||
| + | LONGITUDE 2.3 EAST... OR ABOUT 1475 KM... 920 MILES EAST OF PUERTO | ||
NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR | NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR | ||
| − | + | 260 KM/H... 160 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS NOW A DANGEROUS | |
| − | CATEGORY | + | CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... |
| − | AND IS | + | AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT |
| − | + | 31 KM/H OR 20 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 903 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. | |
| − | + | LANDFALL IS EXPECTED... NOW WITHIN 36 HOURS. | |
| − | AN AIR FORCE (AFLE) RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT IS | + | AN AIR FORCE (AFLE) RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING |
| − | THIS SYSTEM. | + | THIS SYSTEM. MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING A POSSIBLE INTENSITY OR |
| + | LOCATION CHANGE... COULD BE MADE KNOWN IN A SPECIAL UPDATE... OR BY | ||
| + | THE NEXT ADVISORY. | ||
GRIEL IS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND | GRIEL IS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND | ||
| − | OUTWARD UP TO | + | OUTWARD UP TO 610 KM... 380 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE |
WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD | WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD | ||
| − | UP TO | + | UP TO 370 KM... 230 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. |
OFFICIAL FORECAST | OFFICIAL FORECAST | ||
| − | INITIAL TIME IS | + | INITIAL TIME IS 14/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT |
| − | INITIAL | + | INITIAL... 13.8 S 02.3 E...140 KT... CAT 5 |
| − | + | 14/0900H... 13.8 S 01.5 E...145 KT | |
| − | 14/0900H... 13.8 S 01. | + | 14/1500H... 13.8 S 00.5 E...150 KT <!-- 14/2100H... 13.7 S 00.5 W...150 KT --> |
| − | + | 15/0300H... 13.6 S 01.6 W...135 KT <!-- 15/0900H... 13.6 S 02.5 W...110 KT... CAT 3 NEAR LANDFALL --> | |
| − | + | 15/1500H... 13.4 S 00.3 W... 55 KT...INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED <!-- 15/2100H... 13.1 S 03.7 W... 45 KT... INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL --> | |
| − | + | ||
16/0300H...ABSORBED | 16/0300H...ABSORBED | ||
| − | REPEATING THE | + | REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 2.3 EAST. MAXIMUM |
| − | SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR | + | SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 260 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL |
| − | PRESSURE | + | PRESSURE 903 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 31 KM/H. |
| − | THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT | + | THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT... |
| + | WITH AN ADVISORY UPDATE IF NECESSARY BEFORE THEN. | ||
FORECASTER HUNTER | FORECASTER HUNTER | ||
| Line 98: | Line 116: | ||
***EMERGENCY*** | ***EMERGENCY*** | ||
| − | + | A RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRIEL IN AN UNEXPECTED POSITION... | |
| − | NOW | + | LANDFALL NOW WITHIN 36 HOURS. |
| − | EMERGENCY EVACUATIONS | + | |
| − | + | ALL EMERGENCY SUPPLIES SHOULD BE STOCKED UP. ALL EVACUATIONS HAVE | |
| − | + | TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN 12 HOURS DUE TO THE SIZE OF THIS STORM. BEYOND | |
| + | 12 HOURS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE... AND POSSIBLY EVEN HURRICANE-FORCE... | ||
| + | WINDS AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN. AT WHICH POINT... ALL EVACUATIONS | ||
| + | SHOULD STOP AT ONCE AND AN APPROPRIATE SHELTER BE FOUND. | ||
WINDSPEEDS OF UP TO 190 KM/H SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING LANDFALL. | WINDSPEEDS OF UP TO 190 KM/H SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING LANDFALL. | ||
| Line 114: | Line 135: | ||
ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ||
DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS | DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS | ||
| − | JUNE | + | JUNE 14, 2145 |
Revision as of 06:11, 4 October 2006
|
| Hurricane Griel | |
|---|---|
| Category 5 major hurricane | |
| As of: | 0200 local time June 14, 2145 |
| Location: | 13.8°S 2.3°E About 1475 km (920 miles) east of Puerto Nuevo, Vassfforcia |
| Maximum winds: |
260 km/h (160 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 903 hPa |
| Movement: | West at 31 km/h (20 mph) |
| See latest advisory below. Past advisories and discussions available here | |
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 014 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145 AFLE AIRCRAFT FINDS CENTRE OF GRIEL TO THE LEFT/WEST OF EXPECTED POSITION... A DROPSONDE MEASURED 140-KNOT WINDS AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE REPRESENTATIVE AS THIS MEASUREMENT WAS NOT TAKEN FROM THE CENTRE... IN SUMMARY... GRIEL IS CLOSER TO VASSFFORCIA THAN THOUGHT... AND IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OR CYCLONE THAT THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HAS HAD TO WARN ON SINCE HURRICANE SANDRA IN 2139... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MONTAURA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE EDGE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN MONTAURA COAST... CIUDAD ESTADIO DE PUERTO NUEVO ... AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN IBPORTIA COAST NEAR THE CAPE. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. WITH THE FINDINGS OF THE AFLE AIRCRAFT... THIS HAS GOTTEN MORE COMPLICATED. AS WITH ANY LARGE SYSTEM... EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY WHEN THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED THE HIGHER ECHLEONS OF THE INTENSITY SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 140 KNOTS... CATEGORY 5... BASED ON THE DROPSONDE... WHICH ALSO MEASURED A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 907 HPA. ASSUMING THAT THIS DROPSONDE DID NOT CAPTURE THE FULL STRENGTH... IT WAS NOT TAKEN FROM THE CENTRE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 903 HPA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO COMPLICATED DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF GRIEL. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTRE TO THE WEST OF WHAT WAS EXPECTED... I WILL BE GOING WITH A TENTATIVE 285/17... WEST AT 17 KNOTS. GRIEL IS A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH THE POWER TO KILL. ALREADY 30 INDIRECT DEATHS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM GRIEL DUE TO EVACUATIONS. GRIEL'S TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL START TO LASH THE WARNING AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AT 3 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 2.3 EAST... OR ABOUT 1475 KM... 920 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 260 KM/H... 160 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 31 KM/H OR 20 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 903 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED... NOW WITHIN 36 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE (AFLE) RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM. MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING A POSSIBLE INTENSITY OR LOCATION CHANGE... COULD BE MADE KNOWN IN A SPECIAL UPDATE... OR BY THE NEXT ADVISORY. GRIEL IS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 610 KM... 380 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 370 KM... 230 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 14/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 02.3 E...140 KT... CAT 5 14/0900H... 13.8 S 01.5 E...145 KT 14/1500H... 13.8 S 00.5 E...150 KT 15/0300H... 13.6 S 01.6 W...135 KT 15/1500H... 13.4 S 00.3 W... 55 KT...INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED 16/0300H...ABSORBED REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 2.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 260 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 903 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 31 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT... WITH AN ADVISORY UPDATE IF NECESSARY BEFORE THEN. FORECASTER HUNTER
ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE REGARDING HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE... FOR THE GOVERNMENTS OF LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... AND VASSFFORCIA... AS WELL AS OTHER HEARTLAND GOVERNMENTS CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF HURRICANE GRIEL... ***EMERGENCY*** A RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRIEL IN AN UNEXPECTED POSITION... LANDFALL NOW WITHIN 36 HOURS. ALL EMERGENCY SUPPLIES SHOULD BE STOCKED UP. ALL EVACUATIONS HAVE TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN 12 HOURS DUE TO THE SIZE OF THIS STORM. BEYOND 12 HOURS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE... AND POSSIBLY EVEN HURRICANE-FORCE... WINDS AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN. AT WHICH POINT... ALL EVACUATIONS SHOULD STOP AT ONCE AND AN APPROPRIATE SHELTER BE FOUND. WINDSPEEDS OF UP TO 190 KM/H SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING LANDFALL. CIUDAD ESTADIO/PUERTO NUEVO SHOULD BE FULLY EVACUATED. INLAND... A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHING IN FROM DASHAKE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB GRIEL... SO VASSFORCIA LA SERENÍSIMA SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR. CITIES AND TOWNS NEAR RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FLOODS. ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS JUNE 14, 2145
