Difference between revisions of "TD15 (2145)"
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DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE | DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE | ||
| − | OUTSIDE. | + | OUTSIDE. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH STRONG SURF PREVAIL. |
| − | NEXT ANALYSIS ADVISORY AT 1530 LST. | + | NEXT ANALYSIS ADVISORY AT 1530 LST. FORECAST ANALYSIS NOT BEING ISSUED |
| + | AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO RSMC MSHPC FORECASTS. | ||
ISSUED BY NITKAN | ISSUED BY NITKAN | ||
Revision as of 05:30, 7 October 2006
MSHPC
|
| Tropical Storm Amy | |
|---|---|
| Tropical storm | |
| As of: | 0930 local time June 14, 2145 |
| Location: | 45.2°N 25.3°E Over water just northeast of Schimpol |
| Maximum winds: |
65 km/h (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 1002 hPa |
| Movement: | NNE at 16 km/h (10 mph) |
| See first advisory below. Past advisories and discussions available here | |
4515 TCWC HPCOR TROPICAL STORM AMY (4515) ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145 HOO BOY... 13TH NAMED STORM OF YEAR FORMS... MEANING THAT WE HAVE NOW RUN OUT OF NAMES ON THE NORMAL NAME LIST AND HAVE REVERTED TO THE OLD NAME LIST... THE FOLLOWING NAMES ON THE NAME LIST... BRENT... CASSANDRA (KE-SAND-DRA)... DOUGLAS... EILEEN (AI-LIN)... FRANK... GRACE... HENRY... IOLA (EE-YO-LA) THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH MOVED OFF LOX LAND ISLAND YESTERDAY HAS GAINED ENOUGH ORGANISATION TO BE CONSIDERED TROPICAL... AND SINCE IT WAS ALREADY A GALE SYSTEM IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... THE 14TH OF THE SEASON... NAMED AMY. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THREE AGENCIES ARE 2.5/2.5/2.0... SO WE'LL SET THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 35 KT. AMY IS IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY HIGH SSTS AND LOW WIND SHEAR... NEAR 30 DEG C AND 5-10 KT SHEAR... SO SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A LARGE FRONT CLOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GULP MOUNTAINS AND ABSORBS AMY OR MAKES IT EXTRATROPICAL. THE QUESTION HERE IS THE TRACK OF AMY... AND WHETHER IT WILL MAKE TROPICAL LANDFALL ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AFLE MODEL TAKES IT NNE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE TURNING IT NORTH AND THEN NNW... MAKING LANDFALL NEAR WHERE TROPICAL STORM OREN DID EARLIER THIS SEASON. THE UHWF TAKES IT NNE... THEN MAKES A HARD NORTHEAST TURN... MAKING LANDFALL ON THE TIP OF THE PENINSULA NEAR THE NEW YAVIN DEFENSE POST. HDCW EXTRAPOLATED ... WHICH HAS BEEN DISREGARDED FOR THIS ADVISORY... TAKES IT EAST THEN EAST-NORTHEAST... IN A SCARILY-SIMILAR TRACK TO WHAT KILLER HURRICANE YURI DID EARLIER THIS SEASON. AS STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD STILL BE BUFFERING THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF LOX LAND ISLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CITY OF SCHIMPOL AND SURROUNDING COAST... INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE WATERWAY CIRCUIT. SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST OF THIS STORM IS SO DIFFICULT TO PREDICT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AS FOR INITIAL MOTION... CONSERVATIVELY GOING WITH AN 018/9... OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 KM/H. AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM AMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.3 EAST... OR OVER WATER JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CITY OF SCHIMPOL, LOX LAND ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 HPA... TROPICAL STORM AMY IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 KM/H... 10 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 KM... 115 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 14/0900H. INITIAL... 45.2 N 25.3 E... 35 KT 14/1500H... 45.5 N 25.5 E... 35 KT 14/2100H... 45.8 N 25.8 E... 40 KT 15/0900H... 46.5 N 26.7 E... 45 KT 15/2100H... 46.9 N 27.6 E... 50 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 16/0900H... 47.4 N 28.6 E... 40 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED 16/1500H...ABSORBED BY LARGER FRONT REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 45.2 NORTH 25.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA... MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTERS JARVINEN/RINDLI
LLIWO
DA04 TCWC LLIWO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY ADVISORY NO. 1 ON SYSTEM SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM DELTA MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM AMY THIS IS AN OPERATIONAL TEST OF POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE WAY TCWC LLIWO ISSUES ADVISORIES. THIS TEST WILL RUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOX GULF SEASON. ADVISORY NR 1 TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AMY 4515) 1002 HPA INITIAL ANALYSIS AT 14/0930 LST POSITION WITHIN 70 NM LAT +45.2 LON +25.3 NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL LLI TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SEAS BOUNDED BY 45N 24E, 47.5N 26E, 46N 27E, 45N 26E, 45N 25E FOR COAST 30 KM EITHER SIDE OF SCHIMPOL MAX WINDS 35 KT NEAR CENTRE MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 KM/H NEW TROPICAL STORM IN TCWC LLIWO WATERS IS NAMED DELTA. THIS IS THE 4TH STORM IN LLI WATERS THIS SEASON SINCE TCWC LLIWO RECEIVED JURISDICTION FOR LOX LAND ISLAND WATERS. DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTSIDE. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH STRONG SURF PREVAIL. NEXT ANALYSIS ADVISORY AT 1530 LST. FORECAST ANALYSIS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO RSMC MSHPC FORECASTS. ISSUED BY NITKAN
