Difference between revisions of "TD10 (2145)"

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{{WatchesWarnings map|http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/3815/watchwarnnstd4510fu9.png}}
+
{{WatchesWarnings map|http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/1341/watchwarnnstd4510ax8.png}}
 
{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel
 
{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel
 
|category=cat4|type=Category 4 major hurricane
 
|category=cat4|type=Category 4 major hurricane
|local time=1400
+
|local time=1800
 
|date=June 14
 
|date=June 14
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.9&deg;S 0.6&deg;E]<br/>About 840 km (525 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]]
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 14.1&deg;S 0.4&deg;W]<br/>About 595 km (375 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]]
|winds=250 km/h (155 mph)
+
|winds=220 km/h (140 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
|pressure=907 hPa
+
|pressure=921 hPa
 
|movement=W at 39 km/h (24 mph)
 
|movement=W at 39 km/h (24 mph)
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
|advisory=latest}}
Line 14: Line 14:
 
----
 
----
 
  4510 TCWC HPCOR
 
  4510 TCWC HPCOR
  HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 016
+
  HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 017
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
 
  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
  1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145
+
  ISSUED BY THE MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
 +
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 6 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145
 
   
 
   
  GRIEL WEAKENS IN COOLER WATERS... ALTHOUGH 26C WATERS ARE
+
  GRIEL WEAKENS FURTHER... NOW EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO AT
  STILL MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONES.
+
  LANDFALL...
 
   
 
   
  THE HURRICANE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PRUBDABLIA
  NORTHEASTERN IBPORTIA NEAR THE SANXAY STRAIT HAS BEEN
+
SOUTHWARD FOR 130 KM. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY
  DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
+
  IN EFFECT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS HAS BEEN  
 +
  UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
 
   
 
   
  THE HURRICANE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR PRUBDABLIA
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE IBPORTIAN
  SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN LETÍA/MONTAURA COAST IN THE
+
  COAST ALONG THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS.
SANXAY STRAIT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
+
 
   
 
   
  A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
+
  A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY-STATE OF
  VASSFFORCIA IN THE BAY OF PUERTO NUEVO... MEANING THE CITY-STATE
+
  PUERTO NUEVO AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS.
AS WELL AS COASTLINE UP TO EITHER END OF THE TROPICAL STORM
+
WARNING AREAS.
+
 
   
 
   
  HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
+
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS STILL LASHING PRUBDABLIA...
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN
+
  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL SOON AFFECT THE NORTHERN COAST OF
  THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
+
  THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS.
  WITHIN 24 HOURS.
+
 
   
 
   
GRIEL HAS WEAKENED AND HAS NOW TAKEN ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
+
  AT 9 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 SOUTH
TRACK IN RESPONSE TO ITS WEAKENING. THIS KIND OF MOTION
+
  LONGITUDE 0.4 WEST... OR ABOUT 595 KM... 375 MILES EAST OF
IRREGULARITIES ARE NOT UNCOMMON IN LARGE SYSTEMS FLUCTUATING IN
+
INTENSITY... BUT AS GRIEL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER NO
+
FURTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED.
+
+
GRIEL'S TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED
+
IN PRUBDABLIA.
+
+
  AT 3 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 SOUTH
+
  LONGITUDE 0.6 EAST... OR ABOUT 840 KM... 525 MILES EAST OF
+
 
  PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED
 
  PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED
  TO ABOUT 250 KM/H... 155 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS NOW A
+
  TO ABOUT 220 KM/H... 140 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A
 
  CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...
 
  CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...
  AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
+
  AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
  SOUTHWEST AT 39 KM/H OR 26 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
+
  WEST AT 39 KM/H OR 24 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  907 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.  
+
  921 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 18 HOURS.  
 
   
 
   
  GRIEL REMAINS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY
+
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 570 KM...
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 610 KM... 380 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY
+
355 MILES FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CENTRE...
TO THE WEST OF CENTRE...  WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND
+
  WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM...
OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE.
+
175 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
  INITIAL TIME IS 14/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
+
  INITIAL TIME IS 14/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT
   INITIAL... 13.9 S 00.6 E...135 KT
+
   INITIAL... 14.1 S 00.4 W...120 KT... CAT 4
14/2100H... 14.0 S 00.4 W...120 KT
+
  15/0300H... 14.2 S 01.3 W...105 KT... CAT 3
  15/0300H... 14.0 S 01.2 W...110 KT <!-- 15/0900H... 14.1 S 02.2 W...100 KT... CAT 3 NEAR LANDFALL -->
+
15/0900H... 14.2 S 02.3 W... 95 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL <!-- 15/1500H... 13.5 S 03.6 W... 55 KT...INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED -->
15/1500H... 13.5 S 03.6 W... 55 KT...INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED
+
 
  15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM
 
  15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM
 
   
 
   
  REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 0.6 EAST. MAXIMUM
+
  REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 14.1 SOUTH 0.4 WEST. MAXIMUM
  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 250 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
+
  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 220 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
  PRESSURE 907 HPA... MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 39 KM/H.
+
  PRESSURE 921 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 39 KM/H.
+
THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT.
+
+
FORECASTER HUNTER
+
----
+
ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR
+
INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE REGARDING HURRICANE GRIEL (4510)
+
[[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
+
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
+
+
INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE...
+
FOR THE GOVERNMENTS OF LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... AND VASSFFORCIA... AS WELL
+
AS OTHER HEARTLAND GOVERNMENTS CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
+
HURRICANE GRIEL...
+
+
ALL EVACUATIONS MUST STOP IMMEDIATELY. THE ONSET OF GRIEL IS IN
+
LESS THAN THREE HOURS. GRIEL'S TRACK HAS CHANGED AND IT IS NOW
+
HEADING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS RELIEF FOR PRUBDABLIA
+
WHICH SHOULD NOW NOT GET ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST TROPICAL STORM
+
-FORCE... OR AT MOST CATEGORY 1-FORCE... WINDS.
+
 
   
 
   
  THIS WILL BE THE FINAL INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE REGARDING
+
  THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.
HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) UNLESS GRIEL MAKES YET ANOTHER UNEXPECTED
+
MOVE.
+
 
   
 
   
  ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
+
  FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN
DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS
+
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
JUNE 14, 2145
+
FOR THE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN

Revision as of 02:40, 13 October 2006

Current warnings and watches
watchwarnnstd4510ax8.png
Latest storm information
Hurricane Griel
Category 4 major hurricane
As of: 1800 local time June 14, 2145
Location: 14.1°S 0.4°W
About 595 km (375 miles) east of Puerto Nuevo, Vassfforcia
Maximum
winds:
220 km/h (140 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 921 hPa
Movement: W at 39 km/h (24 mph)
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here

4510 TCWC HPCOR
HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 017
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
ISSUED BY THE MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 6 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145

GRIEL WEAKENS FURTHER... NOW EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO AT
LANDFALL...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PRUBDABLIA
SOUTHWARD FOR 130 KM. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY
IN EFFECT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS HAS BEEN 
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE IBPORTIAN
COAST ALONG THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY-STATE OF
PUERTO NUEVO AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS STILL LASHING PRUBDABLIA...
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL SOON AFFECT THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS.

AT 9 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 SOUTH
LONGITUDE 0.4 WEST... OR ABOUT 595 KM... 375 MILES EAST OF
PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED
TO ABOUT 220 KM/H... 140 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...
AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST AT 39 KM/H OR 24 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
921 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 18 HOURS. 

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 570 KM...
355 MILES FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CENTRE...  
WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM...
175 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 14/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 14.1 S 00.4 W...120 KT... CAT 4
15/0300H... 14.2 S 01.3 W...105 KT... CAT 3
15/0900H... 14.2 S 02.3 W... 95 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL 
15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM

REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 14.1 SOUTH 0.4 WEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 220 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 921 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 39 KM/H.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
FOR THE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN