Difference between revisions of "TD15 (2145)"

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----
 
----
 
==MSHPC==
 
==MSHPC==
−
{{WatchesWarnings map|http://img242.imageshack.us/img242/5337/watchwarn4515ee9.png}}
+
{{WatchesWarnings map|http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/5545/watchwarn4515jv4.png}}
 
{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Storm Amy
 
{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Storm Amy
 
|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
 
|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
−
|local time=2130
+
|local time=0330
−
|date=June 14
+
|date=June 15
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 45.9&deg;N 25.7&deg;E]<br/>385 km  (240 miles) north-northeast of [[Schimpol]]
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 46.2&deg;N 26.0&deg;E]<br/>515 km  (325 miles) northeast of [[Schimpol]]
 
|winds=65 km/h (40 mph)
 
|winds=65 km/h (40 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
−
|pressure=998 hPa
+
|pressure=997 hPa
−
|movement=NNE at 19 km/h (12 mph)
+
|movement=NNE at 22 km/h (14 mph)
 
|advisory=latest}}<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
|advisory=latest}}<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
 
  4515 TCWC HPCOR
 
  4515 TCWC HPCOR
−
  TROPICAL STORM AMY (4515) ADVISORY 003
+
  TROPICAL STORM AMY (4515) ADVISORY 004
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
 
  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
−
  7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145
+
  1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145
 
   
 
   
−
  DATA T-NUMBERS STILL DO NOT JUSTIFY THE UPGRADING OF
+
  ONCE AGAIN... AMY HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. I AM
−
  INTENSITY OF AMY... AT 2.5 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.
+
  DUMBFOUNDED AS TO WHY THIS IS SO... AMY IS NOT A PARTICULARLY
−
  ON RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY... CONVECTION TOPS WERE
+
  LARGE SYSTEM... AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE...
−
AS COLD AS MAYBE -65 DEG C... WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY
+
−
SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTRE OF AMY IS PARTIALLY
+
−
EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHEAST.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW SUPERSEDES THE TROPICAL
+
  REGARDLESS... DO NOT EXPECT AMY TO WEAKEN. THEREFORE A TROPICAL
−
  STORM WATCH FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN
+
  STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE
−
  GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS
+
  SOUTHERN GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM
−
  IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN GULP
+
  WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE EASTERN SIDE. A TROPICAL STORM
−
  MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.
+
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING
 +
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA
 +
IN 24-36 HOURS. PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO
 +
A WARNING LATER TODAY... WHILE THE REST OF IT MAY BE CANCELLED.
 +
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
 +
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
   
 
   
−
  AMY REMAINS IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY HIGH SSTS AND LOW
+
  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM
−
  WIND SHEAR... SO UNSURE WHY IT HASN'T STRENGTHENED...
+
  THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SAME REASONING... LARGER FRONT PUSHING
−
  REGARDLESS... AS PER LAST TIME... SLOW STRENGTHENING
+
  IN FROM THE NORTHWEST... AND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
−
  IS STILL EXPECTED.
+
ABSORB AN EXTRATROPICAL AMY. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS...
 +
  INITIAL MOTION IS 020/12. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.
 
   
 
   
−
  CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK... BUT
+
  AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM AMY WAS LOCATED NEAR
−
  LANDFALL STILL EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN COAST OF THE
+
LATITUDE 46.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 515 KM...
−
  SOUTHERN GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.
+
  325 MILES NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL... LOX LAND ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 +
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
 +
  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 997 HPA... AMY IS
 +
MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 22 KM/H... 14 MPH.
 
   
 
   
−
INITIAL MOTION 025/10.
+
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM... 100 MILES...
−
+
FROM THE CENTRE.
−
AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM AMY WAS
+
−
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.7 EAST...
+
−
OR ABOUT 385 KM... 240 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
+
−
LOX LAND ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
+
−
ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
+
−
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 998 HPA... AMY IS
+
−
MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 19 KM/H... 12 MPH.
+
−
+
−
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM...
+
−
100 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
−
  INITIAL TIME... 14/2100H
+
  INITIAL TIME... 15/0300H
−
   INITIAL... 45.9 N 25.7 E... 35 KT  
+
   INITIAL... 46.2 N 26.0 E... 35 KT
−
  15/0300H... 46.3 N 26.0 E... 40 KT
+
  15/0900H... 46.8 N 26.3 E... 35 KT  
−
  15/0900H... 47.0 N 26.3 E... 40 KT <!-- 15/1500H... 47.2 N 26.6 E... 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL -->
+
  15/1500H... 47.2 N 26.6 E... 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
−
  15/2100H... 47.5 N 27.1 E... 45 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
+
15/2100H... 47.5 N 27.1 E... 40 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL  
 +
  16/0300H... 48.0 N 27.5 E... 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED
 
  16/0900H...ABSORBED BY LARGER FRONT
 
  16/0900H...ABSORBED BY LARGER FRONT
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 45.9 NORTH 25.7 EAST.
+
  REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 46.2 NORTH 26.0 EAST. MAXIMUM
−
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS.
+
  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
−
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA... MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST
+
997 HPA... MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 22 KM/H.
−
AT 19 KM/H.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON AMY WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.
+
  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON AMY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER CALTS
+
  FORECASTER HUNTER
 
----
 
----
 
==LLIWO==
 
==LLIWO==
Line 77: Line 73:
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
 
  LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
 
  LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
−
  ADVISORY NR 3 ON SYSTEM
+
  ADVISORY NR 4 ON SYSTEM
 
  SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM DELTA
 
  SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM DELTA
 
  MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM AMY
 
  MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM AMY
Line 85: Line 81:
 
  GULF SEASON.
 
  GULF SEASON.
 
   
 
   
−
  ADVISORY NR 3
+
  ADVISORY NR 4
−
  TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AMY 4515) 996 HPA
+
  TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AMY 4515) 995 HPA
−
  INITIAL ANALYSIS AT 14/2130 LST
+
  INITIAL ANALYSIS AT 15/0330 LST
−
  POSITION WITHIN 45 NM LAT +45.8 LON +25.6
+
  POSITION WITHIN 45 NM LAT +46.2 LON +25.9
−
  380 KM NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL LLI
+
  520 KM NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL LLI
 
  TROPICAL STORM WARNING
 
  TROPICAL STORM WARNING
−
  FOR SEAS BOUNDED BY 45N 25E, 47.5N 26E, 46N 27E, 45N 26E, 45N 25E
+
  FOR SEAS BOUNDED BY 45N 25E, 47.5N 26E, 47N 28E
 
  MAX WINDS 40 KT NEAR CENTRE
 
  MAX WINDS 40 KT NEAR CENTRE
−
  MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 18 KM/H
+
  MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 20 KM/H
 
   
 
   
−
  HIGH SURF CONTINUES TO LASH THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE ISLAND.
+
  NO LONGER A THREAT TO THE ISLAND. SMALL CRAFT OFFSHORE SHOULD CONTINUE
 +
TO BE PREPARED TO ROUGH SEAS.
 
   
 
   
−
  NEXT ANALYSIS ADVISORY AT 0330 LST.  
+
  NEXT ANALYSIS ADVISORY AT 0930 LST.  
 
   
 
   
−
  ISSUED BY GORDON <!--
+
  ISSUED BY GORDON  
 
----
 
----
 
  DF04 TCWC LLIWO
 
  DF04 TCWC LLIWO
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
 
  LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
 
  LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
−
  FORECAST NR 1 ON SYSTEM
+
  FORECAST NR 2 ON SYSTEM
 
  SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM DELTA
 
  SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM DELTA
 
  MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM AMY
 
  MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM AMY
Line 112: Line 109:
 
  GULF SEASON.
 
  GULF SEASON.
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM DELTA.04 (AMY 4515) 999 HPA AT 14/1530
+
  TROPICAL STORM DELTA.04 (AMY 4515) 995 HPA AT 15/0330
−
  FORECAST ANALYSIS AT 14/2130 45.8 NORTH 25.7 EAST WITHIN 75 NM FAIR
+
  FORECAST ANALYSIS AT 15/0930 46.7 NORTH 26.3 EAST WITHIN 75 NM FAIR
−
  INTENSITY 40 KNOTS 997 HPA
+
  INTENSITY 40 KNOTS 993 HPA
−
  FORECAST ANALYSIS AT 15/0330 46.1 NORTH 26.1 EAST WITHIN 100 NM FAIR
+
  FORECAST ANALYSIS AT 15/1530 47.3 NORTH 26.7 EAST WITHIN 100 NM FAIR
−
  INTENSITY 40 KNOTS 995 HPA
+
  INLAND OUTSIDE THE LLIWO AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
 
   
 
   
 
  END PRODUCT//
 
  END PRODUCT//
 
  REFER TO RSMC MSHPC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
 
  REFER TO RSMC MSHPC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
 
   
 
   
−
  NEXT FORECAST ANALYSIS AT 0330 LST.
+
  THIS IS THE FINAL FORECAST ANALYSIS ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY TCWC LLIWO.
 +
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE RESUMED SHOULD THE SYSTEM NOT YET BE OUTSIDE OUR
 +
AOR IN 12 HOURS.
 
   
 
   
−
  ISSUED BY NITKAN
+
  ISSUED BY GORDON
−
-->
+

Revision as of 08:00, 15 October 2006

Contents

MSHPC

Current warnings and watches
watchwarn4515jv4.png
Latest storm information
Tropical Storm Amy
Tropical storm
As of: 0330 local time June 15, 2145
Location: 46.2°N 26.0°E
515 km (325 miles) northeast of Schimpol
Maximum
winds: 		65 km/h (40 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 997 hPa
Movement: NNE at 22 km/h (14 mph)
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here 
4515 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL STORM AMY (4515) ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145

ONCE AGAIN... AMY HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. I AM
DUMBFOUNDED AS TO WHY THIS IS SO... AMY IS NOT A PARTICULARLY
LARGE SYSTEM... AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE...

REGARDLESS... DO NOT EXPECT AMY TO WEAKEN. THEREFORE A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE EASTERN SIDE. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA
IN 24-36 HOURS. PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO
A WARNING LATER TODAY... WHILE THE REST OF IT MAY BE CANCELLED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SAME REASONING... LARGER FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST... AND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
ABSORB AN EXTRATROPICAL AMY. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS...
INITIAL MOTION IS 020/12. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM AMY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 46.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 515 KM...
325 MILES NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL... LOX LAND ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 997 HPA... AMY IS
MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 22 KM/H... 14 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM... 100 MILES...
FROM THE CENTRE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 15/0300H
 INITIAL... 46.2 N 26.0 E... 35 KT
15/0900H... 46.8 N 26.3 E... 35 KT 
15/1500H... 47.2 N 26.6 E... 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
15/2100H... 47.5 N 27.1 E... 40 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 
16/0300H... 48.0 N 27.5 E... 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED
16/0900H...ABSORBED BY LARGER FRONT

REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 46.2 NORTH 26.0 EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
997 HPA... MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 22 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON AMY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

LLIWO

DA04 TCWC LLIWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NR 4 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM DELTA
MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM AMY

THIS IS AN OPERATIONAL TEST OF POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE WAY TCWC LLIWO
ISSUES ADVISORIES. THIS TEST WILL RUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOX
GULF SEASON.

ADVISORY NR 4
TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AMY 4515) 995 HPA
INITIAL ANALYSIS AT 15/0330 LST
POSITION WITHIN 45 NM LAT +46.2 LON +25.9
520 KM NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL LLI
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR SEAS BOUNDED BY 45N 25E, 47.5N 26E, 47N 28E
MAX WINDS 40 KT NEAR CENTRE
MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 20 KM/H

NO LONGER A THREAT TO THE ISLAND. SMALL CRAFT OFFSHORE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE PREPARED TO ROUGH SEAS.

NEXT ANALYSIS ADVISORY AT 0930 LST. 

ISSUED BY GORDON 

DF04 TCWC LLIWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
FORECAST NR 2 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM DELTA
MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM AMY

THIS IS AN OPERATIONAL TEST OF POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE WAY TCWC LLIWO
ISSUES FORECASTS. THIS TEST WILL RUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOX
GULF SEASON.

TROPICAL STORM DELTA.04 (AMY 4515) 995 HPA AT 15/0330
FORECAST ANALYSIS AT 15/0930 46.7 NORTH 26.3 EAST WITHIN 75 NM FAIR
INTENSITY 40 KNOTS 993 HPA
FORECAST ANALYSIS AT 15/1530 47.3 NORTH 26.7 EAST WITHIN 100 NM FAIR
INLAND OUTSIDE THE LLIWO AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY

END PRODUCT//
REFER TO RSMC MSHPC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

THIS IS THE FINAL FORECAST ANALYSIS ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY TCWC LLIWO.
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE RESUMED SHOULD THE SYSTEM NOT YET BE OUTSIDE OUR
AOR IN 12 HOURS.

ISSUED BY GORDON
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