Difference between revisions of "TD17 (2145)"

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{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Depression Seventeen
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{{TCwarnings|http://img427.imageshack.us/img427/5967/nsts4515td3.png}}
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|category=depression|type=Tropical depression
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{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Storm Brent
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|local time=2300
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|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
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|date=July 28
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|local time=0500
 +
|date=July 29
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
 
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 41.6°N 34.2°E]<br/>50 km (30 miles) east of [[Magna Carta]], [[PopularFreedom]]
 
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 41.6°N 34.2°E]<br/>50 km (30 miles) east of [[Magna Carta]], [[PopularFreedom]]
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|winds=55 km/h (35 mph)
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|winds=65 km/h (40 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
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|pressure=1009 hPa
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|pressure=1007 hPa
 
|movement=Almost stationary
 
|movement=Almost stationary
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|advisory=first}}
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|advisory=latest}}
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
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  TCUP TCWC HPCWT CCB
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  4517 TCWC MSHPC
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  TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN (4517) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
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  TROPICAL STORM BRENT (4517) ADVISORY 002
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
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  CYCLONESVILLE WT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND WARNING CENTRE
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LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU HPCLC
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  10 PM PAX JUL 28... 12 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 29 2145
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  CYCLONESVILLE WT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND WARNING CENTRE HPCWT
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CORRECTED FOR GRAMMAR 2 AM HPT
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  1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 29 2145
 
   
 
   
−
  THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME TO UPDATE
+
  WHILST STILL MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM NEAR
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  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES.
+
MAGNA CARTA... TD-SEVENTEEN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
 +
BRENT... THE 15TH OF THE SEASON. IT IS STILL A MIDGET SYSTEM...
 +
  SO MAJOR INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
 
   
 
   
−
  AS OF 2 AM LOCAL TIME... 12 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
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  AT 2 AM LOCAL TIME... 12 AM HPT... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND
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IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FOR THE COASTAL CITY OF
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  WATCHES WERE INITIATED.
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MAGNA CARTA... AND UP AND DOWN THE COAST 50 KM EITHER WAY. A
+
−
  TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS FURTHER IN EFFECT NORTHWARDS TO...
+
−
AND INCLUDING... THE CITY OF LOCKE HARBOR.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE JOINTLY RELEASED BY HPCLC AND HPCWT AT
+
  AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY
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3 AM HPT.
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OF MAGNA CARTA AND THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT COAST... AND A TROPICAL
 +
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTHWARD TO... AND INCLUDING... THE CITY
 +
OF LOCKE HARBOR.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER FRABANK
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  AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED
−
 
+
  BY CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...
−
<!--
+
  LONGITUDE 34.2 EAST... OR ABOUT 50 KM... 30 MILES... EAST OF MAGNA CARTA
−
4517 TCWC MSHPC
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  POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 65 KM/H
−
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN (4517) ADVISORY 001
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  OR 40 MPH... AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED
−
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
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TO BE NEAR 1007 HPA. AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY
−
  LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU HPCLC
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THIS SYSTEM AT 0615 HPT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY.
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  CYCLONESVILLE WT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND WARNING CENTRE HPCWT
+
−
  7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME JUL 28 2145
+
 
   
 
   
−
  SYSTEM THAT PREVIOUSLY CROSSED THE COAST BEFORE NUMBERED WARNINGS
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  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO JUST 25 KM... 15 MILES...
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COULD BE INITIATED NOW INDICATED TO BE CENTRED OFF THE COAST OF
+
  FROM THE CENTRE.
−
POPULARFREEDOM... AND WITH SUFFICIENT ORGANISATION... WARNINGS ARE
+
−
  INITIATED ON THE 17TH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON... AT 30 KT.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AS THIS SYSTEM IS A MIDGET SYSTEM... IT COULD STRENGTHEN VERY RAPIDLY
+
  HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 200 MM... 8 IN... ARE POSSIBLE OVER
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  OVER 27-28 DEG C SSTS. LIKEWISE... HOWEVER... IT COULD WEAKEN VERY
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  MAGNA CARTA... AND OF UP TO 100 MM... 4 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LOCKE HARBOR.
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QUICKLY INLAND AS WELL. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS CYCLONE HAS NOT
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  FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BOTH CITIES.
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BEEN EASY... GIVEN THE APPARENT LACK OF ANY STEERING MECHANISM AT
+
−
  THIS POINT.
+
 
   
 
   
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  AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED
+
  WILL BORROW FROM PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC... GIVEN THE APPARENT LACK OF ANY
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  BY QUIKSCAT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.2 EAST...
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  STEERING MECHANISM AT THIS POINT...HAVE KEPT THE STORM STATIONARY FOR THE
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  OR ABOUT 50 KM... 30 MILES... EAST OF MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM.
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  FIRST SIX HOURS OR SO. BY THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW LOOP...
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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH...
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  EGGED ON BY A NICE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE SW. TROPICAL
−
  ALTHOUGH THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF FASTER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTHENING.
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  STORM BRENT IS IN AN AREA OF 10-15 KNOT SHEAR... AND 27-28 DEGREE C SSTS.
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THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
+
−
1009 HPA OR MBAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY.
+
−
+
−
  TD-SEVENTEEN IS IN AN AREA OF 10-15 KNOT SHEAR... AND 27-28 DEGREE C SSTS.
+
 
  THESE ARE SIGNS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING... AND WITH SUCH A MIDGET SYSTEM
 
  THESE ARE SIGNS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING... AND WITH SUCH A MIDGET SYSTEM
 
  - NO MORE THAN 50 NM... 95 KM... ACROSS... RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
 
  - NO MORE THAN 50 NM... 95 KM... ACROSS... RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
−
   
+
  ACCORDINGLY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE
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THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN DIFFICULT... BUT HAVE KEPT IT STATIONARY
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  WEAKENING DUE TO IT RECROSSING ITS PATH OF COOLER SSTS.
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FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 200 MM...
+
−
  8 IN... ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAGNA CARTA... AND OF UP TO 100 MM... 4 INCHES...
+
−
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LOCKE HARBOR. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
+
−
BOTH CITIES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT THE NEXT ADVISORY.
+
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IN THE LONG RUN... MODELS ARE DIVERGENT. SOME TAKE THIS NE-WARDS... BUT
+
−
MOST MAJOR ONES... INCLUDING THE UHWF AND AFLE... TAKE IT INLAND AS A 50-KT
+
−
TROPICAL STORM... AFTER SOME MEANDERING. ACCORDINGLY THAT IS REFLECTED...
+
−
HOWEVER... RE-EMERGENCE INTO WATER IS EXPECTED.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
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  INITIAL TIME IS 28/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT.
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  INITIAL TIME IS 29/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT.
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   INITIAL... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 30 KT
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   INITIAL... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 35 KT
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29/0300H... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 35 KT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS POSSIBLE
+
  29/0900H... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 45 KT  
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  29/0900H... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 45 KT --><!-- 29/1500H... 41.7 N 34.3 E... 50 KT --><!--
+
29/1500H... 41.7 N 34.3 E... 50 KT <!-- 29/2100H... 41.7 N 34.3 E... 60 KT -->
−
29/2100H... 41.7 N 34.3 E... 55 KT --><!-- 30/0300H... 41.7 N 34.5 E... 60 KT --><!--
+
30/0300H... 41.7 N 34.5 E... 65 KT <!-- 30/0900H... 41.6 N 34.4 E... 65 KT -->
−
30/0900H... 41.6 N 34.4 E... 65 KT --><!-- 30/1500H... 41.6 N 34.3 E... 60 KT --><!--
+
30/1500H... 41.6 N 34.3 E... 60 KT <!-- 30/2100H... 41.6 N 34.0 E... 50 KT...NEAR LANDFALL -->
−
30/2100H... 41.6 N 34.0 E... 50 KT...NEAR LANDFALL --><!-- 31/0300H... 41.8 N 33.8 E... 35 KT...OVER WATER  
+
31/0300H... 41.8 N 33.8 E... 35 KT...OVER WATER POST-LANDFALL <!-- 31/0900H... 42.0 N 33.9 E... 40 KT
−
31/0900H... 42.0 N 33.9 E... 40 KT
+
  31/1500H... 42.3 N 38.7 E... 45 KT  
−
  31/1500H... 42.3 N 38.7 E... 45 KT --><!--
+
  31/2100H... 42.3 N 38.0 E... 40 KT...NEAR LOCKE HARBOR -->
−
  31/2100H... 42.3 N 38.0 E... 40 KT...NEAR LOCKE HARBOR
+
01/0300H... 42.4 N 36.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
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  01/0900H...DISSIPATED INLAND
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  01/0900H...DISSIPATED
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 41.6 N 34.2 E... ABOUT 50 KM EAST OF
+
  REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 41.6 N 34.2 E... ABOUT 50 KM EAST OF
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  MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...
+
  MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...
−
  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY.
+
  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE JOINTLY RELEASED BY HPCLC AND HPCWT AT 3 AM HPT.
+
  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY HPCLC AT 9 AM HPT.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTERS LAVAL/STELIVA
+
  FORECASTERS LAVAL/FRABANK
−
-->
+

Revision as of 10:29, 3 November 2006

Current warnings and watches
nsts4515td3.png
Latest storm information
Tropical Storm Brent
Tropical storm
As of: 0500 local time July 29, 2145
Location: 41.6°N 34.2°E
50 km (30 miles) east of Magna Carta, PopularFreedom
Maximum
winds: 		65 km/h (40 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 1007 hPa
Movement: Almost stationary
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here 
4517 TCWC MSHPC
TROPICAL STORM BRENT (4517) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU HPCLC
CYCLONESVILLE WT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND WARNING CENTRE HPCWT
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 29 2145

WHILST STILL MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM NEAR
MAGNA CARTA... TD-SEVENTEEN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
BRENT... THE 15TH OF THE SEASON. IT IS STILL A MIDGET SYSTEM...
SO MAJOR INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

AT 2 AM LOCAL TIME... 12 AM HPT... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND
WATCHES WERE INITIATED.

AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY
OF MAGNA CARTA AND THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT COAST... AND A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTHWARD TO... AND INCLUDING... THE CITY
OF LOCKE HARBOR.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED
BY CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 34.2 EAST... OR ABOUT 50 KM... 30 MILES... EAST OF MAGNA CARTA
POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 65 KM/H
OR 40 MPH... AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 HPA. AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY
THIS SYSTEM AT 0615 HPT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO JUST 25 KM... 15 MILES...
FROM THE CENTRE.

HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 200 MM... 8 IN... ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MAGNA CARTA... AND OF UP TO 100 MM... 4 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LOCKE HARBOR.
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BOTH CITIES.

WILL BORROW FROM PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC... GIVEN THE APPARENT LACK OF ANY
STEERING MECHANISM AT THIS POINT...HAVE KEPT THE STORM STATIONARY FOR THE
FIRST SIX HOURS OR SO. BY THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW LOOP...
EGGED ON BY A NICE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE SW. TROPICAL
STORM BRENT IS IN AN AREA OF 10-15 KNOT SHEAR... AND 27-28 DEGREE C SSTS.
THESE ARE SIGNS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING... AND WITH SUCH A MIDGET SYSTEM
- NO MORE THAN 50 NM... 95 KM... ACROSS... RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
ACCORDINGLY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE
WEAKENING DUE TO IT RECROSSING ITS PATH OF COOLER SSTS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 29/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT.
 INITIAL... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 35 KT
29/0900H... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 45 KT 
29/1500H... 41.7 N 34.3 E... 50 KT 
30/0300H... 41.7 N 34.5 E... 65 KT 
30/1500H... 41.6 N 34.3 E... 60 KT 
31/0300H... 41.8 N 33.8 E... 35 KT...OVER WATER POST-LANDFALL 
01/0300H... 42.4 N 36.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
01/0900H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 41.6 N 34.2 E... ABOUT 50 KM EAST OF
MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY HPCLC AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTERS LAVAL/FRABANK
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