Difference between revisions of "TD17 (2145)"

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{{TCwarnings|http://img427.imageshack.us/img427/5967/nsts4515td3.png}}
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{{TCwarnings|http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/7347/nsts4515do5.png}}
 
{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Storm Brent
 
{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Storm Brent
 
|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
 
|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
−
|local time=0500
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|local time=1100
 
|date=July 29
 
|date=July 29
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
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|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 41.6°N 34.2°E]<br/>50 km (30 miles) east of [[Magna Carta]], [[PopularFreedom]]
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|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 41.5°N 34.0°E]<br/>Inland near or over [[Magna Carta]], [[PopularFreedom]]
 
|winds=65 km/h (40 mph)
 
|winds=65 km/h (40 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
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|pressure=1007 hPa
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|pressure=1005 hPa
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|movement=Almost stationary
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|movement=WNW slowly
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
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  4517 TCWC MSHPC CCA
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  4517 TCWC HPCLC
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  TROPICAL STORM BRENT (4517) ADVISORY 002...CORRECTED
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  TROPICAL STORM BRENT (4517) ADVISORY 003
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
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  LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU HPCLC
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  LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
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  CYCLONESVILLE WT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND WARNING CENTRE HPCWT
+
  7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 29 2145
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1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 29 2145
+
−
CORRECTED 01/0300H FORECAST POINT
+
 
   
 
   
−
  WHILST STILL MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM NEAR
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  VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRE OF TS-BRENT
−
MAGNA CARTA... TD-SEVENTEEN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
+
  MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 1017H LOCAL TIME. THE MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM
−
  BRENT... THE 15TH OF THE SEASON. IT IS STILL A MIDGET SYSTEM...
+
IS HARD TO PREDICT. SINCE BRENT IS A MIDGET SYSTEM... IT IS POSSIBLE
−
  SO MAJOR INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
+
  THAT IT COULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY INLAND. AT THIS POINT... ALL TROPICAL
 +
STORM WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
 +
PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE STAYS IN EFFECT AS A PRECAUTION.
 +
 
 +
AT 9 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MAGNA CARTA
 +
NORTHWARD TO... AND INCLUDING... THE CITY OF LOCKE HARBOR.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 2 AM LOCAL TIME... 12 AM HPT... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND
+
  AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM BRENT WAS LOCATED BY VISIBLE
−
  WATCHES WERE INITIATED.
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SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE CITY OF MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM
 +
... OR LATITUDE 41.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 34.0 EAST. AT THIS TIME... MAXIMUM
 +
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH... AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
 +
  PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS 1005 HPA. THE AFLE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT FOR
 +
0615 HPT WAS CANCELLED DUE TO THE STORM'S EXTREME PROXIMITY TO LAND.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY
+
  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
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  OF MAGNA CARTA AND THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT COAST... AND A TROPICAL
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  FEW HOURS UNDER THE WEAK INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE PATTERN... BUT
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  STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTHWARD TO... AND INCLUDING... THE CITY
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  IF IT DOESN'T LOSE ITS IDENTITY IT SHOULD RE-EMERGE INTO OPEN WATER...
−
  OF LOCKE HARBOR.
+
  WHICH IS JUSTIFICATION FOR RETAINING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
 
   
 
   
−
AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED
+
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO JUST 15 KM... 10 MILES...
−
BY CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...
+
−
LONGITUDE 34.2 EAST... OR ABOUT 50 KM... 30 MILES... EAST OF MAGNA CARTA
+
−
POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 65 KM/H
+
−
OR 40 MPH... AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED
+
−
TO BE NEAR 1007 HPA. AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY
+
−
THIS SYSTEM AT 0615 HPT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY.
+
−
+
−
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO JUST 25 KM... 15 MILES...
+
 
  FROM THE CENTRE.
 
  FROM THE CENTRE.
 
   
 
   
Line 49: Line 48:
 
  FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BOTH CITIES.
 
  FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BOTH CITIES.
 
   
 
   
−
  WILL BORROW FROM PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC... GIVEN THE APPARENT LACK OF ANY
+
  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BRING IT BACK INTO OPEN WATER AS A REMNANT LOW.
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  STEERING MECHANISM AT THIS POINT...HAVE KEPT THE STORM STATIONARY FOR THE
+
  WHETHER IT REGENERATES IS THE QUESTION HERE. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVOURABLE
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FIRST SIX HOURS OR SO. BY THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW LOOP...
+
  CONDITIONS... NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL HAPPEN... AND WILL DISSIPATE IT WITHIN
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EGGED ON BY A NICE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE SW. TROPICAL
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  24 HR.
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  STORM BRENT IS IN AN AREA OF 10-15 KNOT SHEAR... AND 27-28 DEGREE C SSTS.
+
−
THESE ARE SIGNS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING... AND WITH SUCH A MIDGET SYSTEM
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−
  - NO MORE THAN 50 NM... 95 KM... ACROSS... RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
+
−
ACCORDINGLY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE
+
−
WEAKENING DUE TO IT RECROSSING ITS PATH OF COOLER SSTS.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
−
  INITIAL TIME IS 29/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT.
+
  INITIAL TIME IS 29/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT.
−
   INITIAL... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 35 KT
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   INITIAL... 41.5 N 34.0 E... 35 KT...INLAND
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29/0900H... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 45 KT
+
  29/1500H... 41.6 N 33.8 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
−
  29/1500H... 41.7 N 34.3 E... 50 KT <!-- 29/2100H... 41.7 N 34.3 E... 60 KT -->
+
  29/2100H... 41.9 N 33.6 E... 20 KT...OVER WATER/REMNANT LOW
−
  30/0300H... 41.7 N 34.5 E... 65 KT <!-- 30/0900H... 41.6 N 34.4 E... 65 KT -->
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  30/0900H...DISSIPATED
−
30/1500H... 41.6 N 34.3 E... 60 KT <!-- 30/2100H... 41.6 N 34.0 E... 50 KT...NEAR LANDFALL -->
+
−
31/0300H... 41.8 N 33.8 E... 35 KT...OVER WATER POST-LANDFALL <!-- 31/0900H... 42.0 N 33.9 E... 40 KT
+
−
  31/1500H... 42.3 N 33.7 E... 45 KT
+
−
31/2100H... 42.3 N 33.0 E... 40 KT...NEAR LOCKE HARBOR -->
+
−
01/0300H... 42.4 N 31.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
+
−
01/0900H...DISSIPATED
+
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 41.6 N 34.2 E... ABOUT 50 KM EAST OF
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  REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 41.5 N 34.0 E... MAGNA CARTA,
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MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...
+
POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...
−
  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY.
+
  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY
 +
WNW.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY HPCLC AT 9 AM HPT.
+
  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY HPCLC AT 3 PM HPT.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTERS LAVAL/FRABANK
+
  FORECASTER LAVAL

Revision as of 04:09, 4 November 2006

Current warnings and watches
nsts4515do5.png
Latest storm information
Tropical Storm Brent
Tropical storm
As of: 1100 local time July 29, 2145
Location: 41.5°N 34.0°E
Inland near or over Magna Carta, PopularFreedom
Maximum
winds: 		65 km/h (40 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 1005 hPa
Movement: WNW slowly
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here 
4517 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL STORM BRENT (4517) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 29 2145

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRE OF TS-BRENT
MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 1017H LOCAL TIME. THE MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM
IS HARD TO PREDICT. SINCE BRENT IS A MIDGET SYSTEM... IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT IT COULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY INLAND. AT THIS POINT... ALL TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE STAYS IN EFFECT AS A PRECAUTION.

AT 9 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MAGNA CARTA
NORTHWARD TO... AND INCLUDING... THE CITY OF LOCKE HARBOR.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM BRENT WAS LOCATED BY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE CITY OF MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM
... OR LATITUDE 41.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 34.0 EAST. AT THIS TIME... MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH... AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS 1005 HPA. THE AFLE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT FOR
0615 HPT WAS CANCELLED DUE TO THE STORM'S EXTREME PROXIMITY TO LAND.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS UNDER THE WEAK INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE PATTERN... BUT
IF IT DOESN'T LOSE ITS IDENTITY IT SHOULD RE-EMERGE INTO OPEN WATER...
WHICH IS JUSTIFICATION FOR RETAINING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO JUST 15 KM... 10 MILES...
FROM THE CENTRE.

HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 200 MM... 8 IN... ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MAGNA CARTA... AND OF UP TO 100 MM... 4 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LOCKE HARBOR.
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BOTH CITIES.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BRING IT BACK INTO OPEN WATER AS A REMNANT LOW.
WHETHER IT REGENERATES IS THE QUESTION HERE. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVOURABLE
CONDITIONS... NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL HAPPEN... AND WILL DISSIPATE IT WITHIN
24 HR.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 29/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT.
 INITIAL... 41.5 N 34.0 E... 35 KT...INLAND
29/1500H... 41.6 N 33.8 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
29/2100H... 41.9 N 33.6 E... 20 KT...OVER WATER/REMNANT LOW
30/0900H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 41.5 N 34.0 E... MAGNA CARTA,
POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY
WNW.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY HPCLC AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL
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