Difference between revisions of "TD02 (2146)"
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|pressure=997 hPa | |pressure=997 hPa | ||
|movement=North-northeast at 25 kt}} | |movement=North-northeast at 25 kt}} | ||
+ | ---- | ||
+ | TCUP2 HPCOR 051815 | ||
+ | TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE | ||
+ | TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) | ||
+ | [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
+ | [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | ||
+ | ISSUED BY MET SERVICE HQ... FOLENISA | ||
+ | 6 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME... 1 PM LOCAL TIME | ||
+ | |||
+ | TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... | ||
+ | RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND 58-KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 45 KNOTS | ||
+ | AT THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS... INTENSITY IS UPPED TO 45 KTS FOR THIS TROPICAL | ||
+ | CYCLONE UPDATE. | ||
+ | |||
+ | HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVOURABLE IN BOTH | ||
+ | THE SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM. IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM | ||
+ | SOUTH OF BARRIER ISLAND WILL FULLY ABSORB A WEAKENING MORDREL WHEN MORDREL GETS | ||
+ | CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS THE LOCAL NAME 'ARIANA' IS DROPPED FROM FURTHER | ||
+ | ADVISORIES. | ||
+ | |||
+ | A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF | ||
+ | GRAND ISLAND AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. | ||
+ | |||
+ | THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS FROM KELLIMITE | ||
+ | NATIONAL PARK TO COVASNA IS NOW CANCELLED. | ||
+ | |||
+ | THE RIVER OVERFLOW ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR TOZAI IN MORIANTON IS NOW | ||
+ | CANCELLED. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST OF CARITAS | ||
+ | IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. | ||
+ | |||
+ | TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 KM... 160 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. | ||
+ | |||
+ | AT 6 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS ESTIMATED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY | ||
+ | TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 22.6 WEST... ABOUT 2485 KM... 1550 MI | ||
+ | SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 KM/H | ||
+ | OR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO START OCCURRING SOON. | ||
+ | MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 994 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING | ||
+ | SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 46 KM/H... 29 MPH. | ||
+ | |||
+ | THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC AT 9:45PM | ||
+ | HPT. | ||
+ | |||
+ | FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN | ||
+ | |||
---- | ---- | ||
TCAD2 HPCOR 051545 | TCAD2 HPCOR 051545 | ||
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FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G50KT | FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G50KT | ||
NXT WRN: 1210 21460505= | NXT WRN: 1210 21460505= | ||
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Revision as of 03:42, 19 June 2007
Tropical Storm Mordrel (Ariana) | |
---|---|
Tropical storm | |
As of: | 1500 HPT May 5, 2146 |
Location: | 7.2°N 23.0°W About 2615 km (1635 mi) south-southwest of Modna Sud, Outer Islands or about 1420 km (885 miles) northwest of Feronia, Herconia |
Maximum winds: |
65 km/h (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
Pressure: | 997 hPa |
Movement: | North-northeast at 25 kt |
Past advisories and discussions available here |
TCUP2 HPCOR 051815 TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS ISSUED BY MET SERVICE HQ... FOLENISA 6 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME... 1 PM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND 58-KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 45 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS... INTENSITY IS UPPED TO 45 KTS FOR THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVOURABLE IN BOTH THE SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM. IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF BARRIER ISLAND WILL FULLY ABSORB A WEAKENING MORDREL WHEN MORDREL GETS CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS THE LOCAL NAME 'ARIANA' IS DROPPED FROM FURTHER ADVISORIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF GRAND ISLAND AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS FROM KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK TO COVASNA IS NOW CANCELLED. THE RIVER OVERFLOW ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR TOZAI IN MORIANTON IS NOW CANCELLED. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST OF CARITAS IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 KM... 160 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. AT 6 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS ESTIMATED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 22.6 WEST... ABOUT 2485 KM... 1550 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 KM/H OR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO START OCCURRING SOON. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 994 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 46 KM/H... 29 MPH. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC AT 9:45PM HPT. FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN
TCAD2 HPCOR 051545 TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 006 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 3 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA) RECON AIRCRAFT IS DUE IN TO INVESTIGATE MORDREL AROUND 1200 LOCAL TIME LATER TODAY. BEFORE THEN... I HAVE THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE TO WRITE... AND SO BASED ON CONTINUITY WILL USE THE INFORMATION WE HAD AT THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY THREE HOURS AGO. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL HAS BECOME BETTER CONSOLIDATED... AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CURRENTLY AT A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KTS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO MAXIMUM WIND SPEED AT THIS POINT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KTS. MORDREL/ARIANA IS LOOKING GOOD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT I AM UNDER-ESTIMATING THE INTENSITY OF MORDREL RIGHT NOW. INITIAL 24-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 030/25. AT 3 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARRIER ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF GRAND ISLAND. AT 3 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARITAS COAST FROM THE COASTAL EDGE OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK IN HERCONIA NORTHWARD TO COVASNA. IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 36-48 HOURS. AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA) WAS ESTIMATED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 23.0 WEST... ABOUT 2615 KM... 1635 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD OR ABOUT 1420 KM... 885 MI NORTHWEST OF FERONIA, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... WITH SOME MINIMAL STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 997 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 46 KM/H... 29 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 210 KM... 130 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. NO RAINFALL DIRECTLY FROM MORDREL IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING OR WATCH AREAS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ALTHOUGH TRACE AMOUNTS TO TWO INCHES... 50 MM... ARE POSSIBLE ON BARRIER ISLAND DUE TO THE LARGER LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE AREA. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST AND FASTER THAN THE LAST ONE... FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS... BUT STILL FOLLOWS THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. THE LOW IS THE MAIN COMPLICATING FACTOR HERE... AND WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS. INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS FROM 45 KT TO 40. A RIVER/LAKE OVERFLOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TOZAI, MORIANTON... IN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI WILL OVERFLOW DURING PASSAGE OF MORDREL THROUGH MORIANTON. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 05/1500H INITIAL... 07.2 N 23.0 W... 35 KT 06/0300H... 08.6 N 22.0 W... 35 KT 06/1500H... 10.5 N 20.4 W... 35 KT 07/0300H... 12.2 N 18.5 W... 40 KT 07/1500H... 13.8 N 16.6 W... 40 KT 08/0300H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 40 KT...LANDFALL 08/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 07.2 NORTH 23.0 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 25 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF ÎLE GRANDE AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS FROM THE COASTAL EDGE OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK IN HERCONIA TO THE SETTLEMENT OF COVASNA, FORMER TANTAVIA. THE NEXT FULL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 1815 HPT. IF THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ANY NEW INFORMATION EITHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE OR SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IN PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. FORECASTER RINDLI
TCTW02 FOLN 051545 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 1545 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 1500 21460505 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: MORDREL WARNING NR: 6 POSITION: 7.2N 23.0W ACCURACY: 30NM MOVEMENT: NNE 25KT CENT PRES: 997HPA MAX WIND: 35KT MAX GUST: 45KT FCST 12HR: 8.6N 22.0W FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G50KT NXT WRN: 1210 21460505=