Difference between revisions of "TD02 (2146)"

Revision as of 12:13, 20 June 2007

TCAD2 HPCOR 052145 CCA
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 007...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 4 PM LOCAL TIME

...CORRECTED TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMING UNFAVOURABLE... MORDREL HAS LIKELY PEAKED
IN INTENSITY. THE LOCAL NAME 'ARIANA' HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE CYCLONE.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH NO TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SOUTH OF BARRIER
ISLAND SHOULD ABSORB MORDREL WITHIN 24 HOURS... AS THIS LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST WHILE EXECUTING A LOOP PATTERN. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH AND BECOME A SIGNIFICANT INLAND WEATHER SYSTEM OVER LOS PAISES
LEJANOS.

BASED ON EARLIER RECON INFO... INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T2.5/35KTS TO T3.0/45KTS. INITIAL 24-HOUR MOTION IS
UNCLEAR BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 015/20.

AT 9 PM HPT... ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY RECONNAISSANCE
INFORMATION... AND EXTRAPOLATION... TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.0 NORTH LONGITUDE
22.3 WEST... ABOUT 2340 KM... 1460 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARRIER ISLAND. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H OR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... WITH WEAKENING NOW
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL
IS MOVING SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 38 KM/H... 24 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 210 KM... 130 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE.

ALL MODELS INITIATED NOW SHOW MORDREL BEING FULLY ABSORBED AROUND 11N 21W IN 24-36
HOURS. OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 05/2100H
 INITIAL... 08.0 N 22.3 W... 45 KT 
06/0900H... 09.5 N 21.7 W... 40 KT 
06/2100H... 11.0 N 21.0 W... 35 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED
07/0900H...ABSORBED BY LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW/FRONT

REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 08.0 NORTH 22.3 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT 20 KT.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW02 FOLN 052145
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 2145 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        2100 21460505
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         7
POSITION:           8.0N 22.3W
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           NNE 20KT
CENT PRES:          994HPA
MAX WIND:           45KT
MAX GUST:           55KT
FCST 12HR:          9.5N 21.7W
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
NXT WRN:            0340 21460506=