TD08 (2145)/Past
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Tropical Depression Eight
Advisory 1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 001... SPECIAL ADVISORY...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 2 AM PAX... 4 AM HPT... 6 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145 CORRECTED SPELLING OF SANKT RIURIK IN FORECAST CORRECTED AT 6:45 AM HPT TO INDICATE NEXT ADVISORY AND TO CHANGE FORECAST HDCW REPORTED AT 0513H LST THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF POPULARFREEDOM HAD GAINED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND HAD A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE... AND T NUMBERS WERE 1.5/1.5 FROM HCDW AND UHWF AT 0531H LST AND 0517H LST RESPECTIVELY... MAKING THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. PER THE T-NUMBERS... INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS NEAR AN AREA OF DRY AIR... AND MAY NOT LAST LONG. INDEED... THE AFLE MODEL BRINGS THIS TO A MINIMAL 35-KT TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING IT BY 48 HOURS. THE UHWF SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT MAY BE SLIGHTLY SUBTROPICAL AT THIS POINT... AND PEAKS IT AS A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR SANKT RIURIK. THE HCDW'S EXTRAPOLATED MODEL SUGGESTS A PEAK OF 38 KNOTS BEFORE DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE ABOVE... AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR AND 25-KT WIND SHEAR AWAITING IT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DISSIPATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IN 60 HOURS. AT 6 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT LOCATED ABOUT 285 KM... 180 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM... ABOUT 430 KM... 270 MILES EAST OF LOCKE HARBOUR... OR ABOUT 995 KM... 620 MILES... NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK, VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 16 KM/H... 10 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HECTOPASCALS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY AS THE STORM GRADUALLY INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED. NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN 30-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL... 995 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT 6 HOURS... 890 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT 12 HOURS... 755 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT 24 HOURS... 515 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 36 HOURS... 300 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT 48 HOURS... 215 KM WSW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72 HOURS...DISSIPATED FORECASTER RYAN
Advisory 2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 002... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145 CORRECTED TO SWAP "HDCW" AND "UHWF" IN FIRST PARA. CORRECTED FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT... AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UHWF REPORTS T1.5 AT 0949H LST AND HDCW REPORTED THAT A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1011H LST FAILED TO FIND ANY CLEAR CENTRE OF THIS SYSTEM. AS SUCH... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AT 11 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 KM... 555 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 50 KM/H OR 30 MPH... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 23 KM/H... 14 MPH. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SYSTEM. THE AFLE STILL PEAKS IT AS A 35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM IN 18 HOURS... WHICH MAY SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE. THE UHWF IS STILL INSISTING ON A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL IN SANKT RIURIK... THE HDCW'S EXTRAPOLATED MODEL PEAKS IT AT 41 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SURVIVE THE CONDITIONS LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE LANDFALL... AS WELL AS A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN IN THE STORM'S PATH BEING FORECAST... BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ATTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE AFLE MODEL... BUT THERE IS LITTLE... IF ANY... CHANGE IN TRACK. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY AS THE STORM GRADUALLY INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED. REPEATING THE 11 AM POSITION... 885 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HPA. TD EIGHT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 23 KM/H. NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN 30-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU EVERY THREE HOURS. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 06/0900 HPT INITIAL... 885 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT 06/1500H... 745 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT 07/0300H... 505 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/1500H... 285 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT...DISSIPATING 08/0300H... 200 KM WSW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 08/1500H...DISSIPATED FORECASTER RYAN
Advisory 3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION A BIT STRONGER... CONVECTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST SIX HOURS... AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SOON. QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1626H LST MANAGED TO DETERMINE CIRCULATION CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT... WHICH MAY INDICATE IT GETTING BETTER ORGANISED. DVORAK READINGS FROM HDCW AT 1455H LST SEEMED TO INDICATE SLIGHT STRENGTHENING... AND AS SUCH... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 30 KNOTS. AT 11 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 KM... 470 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 21 KM/H... 13 MPH. THE MODELS STILL FAIL TO AGREE ON THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER... ONE MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE LAST ADVISORY IS THAT THE UHWF NO LONGER INSISTS ON LANDFALL... AND THE HDCW'S EXTRAPOLATED FORECAST ALSO NO LONGER SHOWS LANDFALL TO TAKE THE UHWF MODEL INTO ACCOUNT. I BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM... AND SURVIVE A WHILE... BEFORE SHEAR TEARS IT APART. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPEEDS THE STORM UP A LITTLE FROM 12 HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... TOPPING OFF AT NEAR 40 KM/H AT ONE POINT. INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE ALSO BEEN CHANGED. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY... FROM DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT RIURIK. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36 HOURS. REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION... 750 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 21 KM/H. NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN 40-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU EVERY THREE HOURS. SHIPPING ADVISORY... CENTRE OF STORM LOCATED FOUR ZERO FIVE NAUTICAL MILES ON A BEARING OF THREE ONE ONE DEGREES FROM SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTRE ARE THREE ZERO KNOTS. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 06/1500 HPT INITIAL... 750 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT 06/2100H... 620 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/0300H... 500 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT 07/1500H... 20 KM W SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 08/0300H... 200 KM WSW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT...DISSIPATING 08/1500H...DISSIPATED FORECASTER RYAN
Advisory 4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 004 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION A BIT STRONGER... SHORT AND SIMPLE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS STILL GAINING STRENGTH BUT IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME. AT 11 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 KM... 390 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 24 KM/H... 15 MPH. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WILL ENTER A HIGH-SHEAR REGION WITHIN 18 HOURS. THIS LEAVES VERY LITTLE TIME FOR STRENGTHENING... WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR. ALL MODELS... INCLUDING THE HDCW'S EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... HAVE BEEN IGNORED FOR THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION OF FACTORS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY... FROM DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT RIURIK. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36 HOURS. REPEATING THE 11 PM POSITION... 620 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 24 KM/H. NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN 40-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU EVERY THREE HOURS. SHIPPING ADVISORY... CENTRE OF STORM LOCATED THREE THREE FIVE NAUTICAL MILES ON A BEARING OF THREE ZERO FIVE DEGREES FROM SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTRE ARE THREE ZERO KNOTS... FORECAST FOR ZERO SIX HOURS... TWO FIVE FIVE NAUTICAL MILES ON A BEARING OF THREE ONE THREE DEGREES FROM SANKT RIURIK. FORECAST MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTRE TO BE THREE FIVE KNOTS. FORECAST WIND RADIUS OF THIRTY-FOUR KNOT WINDS ARE ONE THREE NAUTICAL MILES. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 06/2100 HPT INITIAL... 620 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT 07/0300H... 475 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/1500H... 190 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 08/0300H... INLAND DISSIPATED FORECASTER RYAN
Advisory 6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ (4508) ADVISORY 006 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145 GYARNIFQ LOSES MUCH CONVECTION AND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT SUGGESTS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN BEFORE. NOT MANY 35-KT WIND BANDS ARE BEING REPORTED... AND NEAR THE CENTRE ALMOST NO 35-KT WIND BANDS. AS SUCH... INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT... BUT EVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION WOULD PUSH GYARNIFQ BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. AT 11 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 KM... 205 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 23 KM/H... 15 MPH. GYARNIFQ MAY RESTRENGTHEN SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL... LANDFALL EXPECTED IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY... FROM DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT RIURIK... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA INSIDE 24 HOURS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REPEATING THE 11 AM POSITION... 330 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. TROPICAL DPRSN GYARNIFQ IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 23 KM/H. SHIPPING ADVISORY... CONSULT LOCAL AUTHORITIES THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 PM HPT WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 12 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/0900 HPT INITIAL... 330 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT 07/1500H... 190 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/2100H... VERY NEAR SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 08/0300H... INLAND DISSIPATED FORECASTER RYAN
Tropical Storm Gyarnifq
Advisory 5
TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ (4508) ADVISORY 005...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145 CORRECTED INITIAL FORECAST TIME TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FINALLY BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... NAMED GYARNIFQ - THE NAME CONTRIBUTED BY MIRACLIA. AT 5 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 KM... 295 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 23 KM/H... 15 MPH. TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL. PIECES OF INFORMATION HAVE BEEN STREAMING IN FROM HDCW REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS GAINED ENOUGH CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL STORM. A RECENT RECON AIRCRAFT CONFIRMED 35-KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE... INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE 35 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY... FROM DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT RIURIK... HAVE BEEN CANCELLED IN FAVOUR OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA INSIDE 24 HOURS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 25 KM... 15 MILES FROM THE CENTRE, MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... SANKT RIURIK SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITHIN 18 HOURS. REPEATING THE 5 AM POSITION... 470 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA. TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 23 KM/H. NEXT FULL ADVISORY DUE AT 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY IS NOT BEING PLANNED FOR AT THIS TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN 40-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU EVERY THREE HOURS. SHIPPING ADVISORY... CENTRE OF STORM LOCATED TWO FIVE FIVE - 255 NAUTICAL MILES ON A BEARING OF THREE ONE SIX DEGREES FROM SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTRE ARE THREE FIVE KNOTS... EXTENT OF THIRTY-FOUR-KNOT WINDS ARE ONE THREE - 13 NAUTICAL MILES. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/0300 HPT INITIAL... 470 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/0900H... 330 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/1500H... 190 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/2100H... VERY NEAR SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 08/0300H... INLAND DISSIPATED FORECASTER RYAN
Advisory 6A
TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ (4508) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 006A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 10 AM PAX... 12 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145 GYARNIFQ REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GYARNIFQ HAS INCREASED AGAIN OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS... AND A RECENT DVORAK READING RETURNED T2.5 FROM HDCW. THEREFORE... INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY IS RAISED TO 35 KT... BUT THIS VALUE DOES NOT COUNT TOWARDS THE ACE VALUE OF THE STORM. AT 2 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 KM... 165 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FORWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST AT NEAR 26 KM/H... 16 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... GYARNIFQ SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN NINE HOURS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP CLOSER TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY... FROM DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT RIURIK... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE... WITHIN TWELVE HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 25 KM FROM THE CENTRE. REPEATING THE 2 PM POSITION... 260 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 26 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 PM HPT WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY FOLLOWING THAT AT 6 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/1200 HPT INITIAL... 260 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/1500H... 180 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/1800H... 90 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/2100H... INLAND NEAR SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT 08/0300H... INLAND DISSIPATED FORECASTER RYAN
Advisory 7
TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ (4508) ADVISORY 007 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145 GYARNIFQ STRENGTHENS A LITTLE UNEXPECTEDLY... INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KNOTS FROM LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AND INFO FROM HDCW. THE STORM HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED AND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN FOUR AND A HALF HOURS. AT 5 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 KM... 105 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FORWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST AT NEAR 38 KM/H... 24 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... A DIRECT HIT ON SANKT RIURIK IS THE MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE. ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF SANKT RIURIK ARE BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF NEW VARANGIA AROUND SANKT RIURIK... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE... WITHIN SIX HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF NEW VARANGIA FROM 50 KILOMETRES NORTH OF SANKT RIURIK NORTHWARD TO DANJLGRAD. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE CANCELLED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 35 KM FROM THE CENTRE. REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION... 170 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 38 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 PM HPT WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY FOLLOWING THAT AT 6 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/1500 HPT INITIAL... 170 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT 07/1800H... 55 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT 07/2100H... INLAND 40KM S SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT... DISSIPATING 08/0300H... INLAND DISSIPATED FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 7A
TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ (4508) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 007A...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 4 PM PAX... 6 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145 CORRECTED TO ADD NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY TIME GYARNIFQ VERY CLOSE TO LANDFALL... HDCW EXTRAPOLATED, AFLE, UHWF, TCED, THTC, HGCL AND THFB MODELS ALL FORECAST 45 KNOT LANDFALL. HOWEVER... WITH RECENT REPORTS FROM QUIKSCAT, HDCW AND UHWF ... INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KNOTS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF NEW VARANGIA FROM JUST SOUTH OF SANKT RIURIK NORTHWARD FOR 55 KM. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FURTHER NORTH TO DANJLGRAD HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 8 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 38.2E... APPROXIMATELY 50 KM... 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. GYARNIFQ IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT NEAR 38 KM/H... 24 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... A DIRECT HIT ON SANKT RIURIK WILL OCCUR WITHIN TWO HOURS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IF NOT ALREADY IN SHELTER. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 55 KM FROM THE CENTRE. SANKT RIURIK SHOULD ALREADY BE EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 8 PM POSITION... 40.8N 38.2E... 170 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 38 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 PM HPT WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT LANDFALL. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/1800 HPT INITIAL... 50 KM NW SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT 07/2100H... INLAND 40KM S SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT... DISSIPATING 08/0300H... INLAND DISSIPATED FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 8
TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ (4508) SPECIAL ADVISORY 008 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 5:30 PM PAX... 7:30 PM HPT... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145 GYARNIFQ HAS MADE LANDFALL. REPORT OF EYE CROSSING COAST AT 2120H LST. HDCW REPORTED 43-KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL... UHWF REPORTED 51 KNOTS ... OBSERVERS ON GROUND REPORTED 37-KNOT TEN MINUTE WINDS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 40 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF NEW VARANGIA FROM JUST SOUTH OF SANKT RIURIK NORTHWARD FOR 55 KM HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD 130 KM AS GYARNIFQ IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARDS... AND WILL SOON RE-EMERGE OVER WATER. WHETHER IT WILL BE ABLE TO REGENERATE... IS ANOTHER QUESTION. MY PERSONAL THOUGHT IS THAT IT WILL NOT... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS DISSIPATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THTC AND THFB MODELS BOTH CALL FOR STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE... BUT THESE TWO MODELS HAVE BEEN RELIED ON LESS FOR THE FORECAST... WHICH RELIES HEAVILY ON AFLE, UHWF AND COMMON SENSE. AT 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 38.6E ... VERY NEAR... OR PERHAPS EVEN OVER... SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. GYARNIFQ IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT NEAR 35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... GYARNIFQ SHOULD RE-EMERGE OVER WATER WITHIN SIX HOURS. HOWEVER... NO SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 55 KM FROM THE CENTRE. SANKT RIURIK SHOULD ALREADY BE EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. REPEATING THE 9:30 PM POSITION... 40.5N 38.6E... NEAR OR OVER SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS MOVING SOUTHWARDS AT ABOUT 35 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 PM HPT. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/1930 HPT INITIAL... NEAR OR OVER SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT 07/2100H... INLAND 40KM S SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT... DISSIPATING 08/0300H... 250 KM S SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT... DISSIPATING 08/0900H...DISSIPATED FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ (4508) ADVISORY 009 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145 GYARNIFQ NOW INLAND. STILL UNSAFE TO INSPECT DAMAGE. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE GUSTS ARE STILL BLOWING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS DROPPED TO 30 KNOTS FROM A RECENT GROUND REPORT OF 26-KT 8-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS. ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED. GYARNIFQ HAS TAKEN A TURN TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST... AND WILL PROBABLY NOT RE-EMERGE OVER WATER. THTC... THFB... AND HGCL MODELS ALL STILL SHOW GYARNIFQ RE-EMERGING INTO WATER... WITH THE FORMER TWO STRENGTHENING IT INTO A 67-KT HURRICANE. THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL PRETTY MUCH FOLLOW THE UHWF EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... WHICH TAKES GYARNIFQ FURTHER OVER LAND... DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE LIVONIA-MEISSEN BORDER. AT 11 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 38.7E ... ABOUT 40 KM... 25 MILES... SOUTH OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA. GYARNIFQ IS MOVING TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST AT NEAR 27 KM/H... 17 MPH. THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATING... BUT I AM NOT READY... AS YET... TO PULL THE PLUG ON GYARNIFQ... IN CASE IT DOES TAKE THAT UNEXPECTED TURN BACK OVER WATER. REPEATING THE 11 PM POSITION... 40.4N 38.7E... 40 KM SOUTH OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 27 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 AM HPT. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/2100 HPT INITIAL... 40.4 N 38.7 E... 30 KT... DISSIPATING 08/0300H... 40.3 N 40.2 E... 25 KT... DISSIPATING 08/0900H...DISSIPATED FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ (4508) FINAL ADVISORY 010 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 8 2145 REMNANTS OF GYANRNIFQ DISSIPATING/BEING ABSORBED INTO LARGER SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT... STORM IS DISSIPATING. AT 5 AM LOCAL TIME... THE REMNANTS OF EX - TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ ARE LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 40.2E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KM/H OR 30 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 HPA. GYARNIFQ IS MOVING TO THE EAST AT NEAR 47 KM/H... 29 MPH. WE ARE PULLING THE PLUG ON THIS STORM. THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE MSHPC ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ. FORECASTERS HUNTER/JARVINEN