TD10 (2145)
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| Tropical Storm Griel | |
|---|---|
| Tropical storm | |
| As of: | 0900 local time June 11, 2145 |
| Location: | 13.9°S 9.2°E |
| Maximum winds: |
75 km/h (45 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 998 hPa |
| Movement: | West at 24 km/h (15 mph) |
| See latest advisory below. Past advisories and discussions available here | |
4510 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 GRIEL IS STARTING TO ENCOUNTER SHEAR FROM A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL LOW... SSTS ARE ALSO RAPIDLY DECLINING... ALTHOUGH STILL SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY... AT 29 DEG C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT. THE MSHPC IS NOT NECESSARILY SKILLED IN FORECASTING THIS PARTICULAR AREA OF THE HEARTLAND AND WILL RELY HEAVILY ON THE COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH NOW ALL CALL FOR A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE TOPS. AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.9 SOUTH LATITUDE 9.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA/MBAR. COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS... I DO NOT TRUST THEM BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO DO HERE... FORECAST IS BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS. FORECAST FOR 72 HOURS INITIAL... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 40 KT 11/1500H... 13.8 S 08.7 E... 40 KT 11/2100H... 13.8 S 08.4 E... 45 KT 12/0900H... 13.9 S 07.6 E... 50 KT 12/2100H... 13.9 S 06.8 E... 60 KT 13/0900H... 13.8 S 05.9 E... 70 KT 14/0900H... 13.9 S 04.2 E... 60 KT THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTER LAVAL
