TD10 (2145)
From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
Revision as of 03:02, 7 September 2006 by Liverpool England (Talk | contribs)
| Tropical Storm Griel | |
|---|---|
| Tropical storm | |
| As of: | 0300 local time June 11, 2145 |
| Location: | 13.8°S 10.0°E About 3455 km (2160 miles) east of Puerto Nuevo, Vassfforcia |
| Maximum winds: |
75 km/h (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 998 hPa |
| Movement: | West at 24 km/h (15 mph) |
| See latest advisory below. Past advisories and discussions available here | |
4510 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON EVER-RISING T-NUMBERS... HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. WIND SHEAR IS ALMOST ZERO. WATERS ARE WAY TOO WARM...NEAR 36 DEG C IN SOME PLACES... AND THIS WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A HURRICANE IN 12-18 HOURS... AND A MAJOR HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 48. AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 10.0E... OR ABOUT 3455 KM... 2160 MILES... EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO, VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... GUSTING TO 60 KT... AND GRIEL IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H... 15 MPH... THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA. BASED ON AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH ARE ALL GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT... GRIEL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS. LATER IN THE 96-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HDCW EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... AND MAKES GRIEL A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 115 MPH... INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 11/0300H... ALL TIMES IN HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 10.0 E... 40 KT 11/0900H... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 55 KT 11/1500H... 14.0 S 08.3 E... 70 KT...CAT 1 12/0300H... 14.0 S 07.9 E... 80 KT 12/1500H... 13.9 S 07.2 E... 95 KT...CAT 2 13/0300H... 13.9 S 06.4 E...115 KT...CAT 4 14/0300H... 13.8 S 04.8 E...145 KT...CAT 5 15/0300H... 14.0 S 03.3 E...120 KT...CAT 4 IT SHOULD BE NOTED LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO ERRORS OF UP TO 40 KT ON DAY 3... AND 50 KT ON DAY 5. REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 13.8S 10.0E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT. FORECASTER LAVAL
