TD10 (2145)/Past

Tropical Depression Ten

Advisory 1

4510 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (4510) SPECIAL ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
8 PM PAX... 10 PM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 10 2145

RECON DATA IS IN. RECON REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT...
WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED...
ALBEIT VERY SPARSELY... BY SHIPS IN THE REGION. BASED ON T-NUMBERS
FROM HDCW AND UHWF... ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TEN... LOCATED FAR WEST OF TORQUAY AND FAR EAST OF VASSFFORCIA IN
NO-MAN'S LAND... AT 30 KNOTS.

WIND SHEAR IS A VERY LOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WATERS ARE WAY TOO WARM...
NEAR 35 DEG C IN SOME PLACES... AND THIS MIGHT LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE
INTENSIFICATION. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS BECAME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT 10 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.8S 10.4E... OR ABOUT 3580 KM... 2240 MILES... EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO,
VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 55 KM/H... 35 MPH...
GUSTING TO 45 KT... AND TD-TEN IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H... 15 MPH...
THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 HPA.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING STORMS THAT ARE IN THIS GENERAL
AREA... AS SEEN WITH FELICIA AND GEORGE... THE LOCATION FORECASTS ARE
NOT PROVIDED BEYOND 36 HOURS... AND ONLY INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE PROVIDED.
BASED ON AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH ARE ALL GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT... TD-TEN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. LATER IN THE
96-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HDCW
EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... AND BRINGS TD-TEN TO A CATEGORY FOUR 120-KT HURRICANE.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST...
1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 115 MPH...
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 10/2200H... ALL TIMES IN HPT
 INITIAL... 13.8 S 10.4 E... 30 KT
10/0300H... 13.8 S 10.0 E... 40 KT
11/0900H... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 45 KT
11/2100H... 14.0 S 08.3 E... 60 KT
12/0900H... 14.0 S 07.6 E... 75 KT
12/2100H... UNAVAILABLE  ... 95 KT
13/2100H... UNAVAILABLE  ...110 KT 
14/2100H... UNAVAILABLE  ...120 KT

REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION... 13.8S 10.4E OR ABOUT 3580 KM EAST OF PUERTO
NUEVO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MOVING
WEST AT 24 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 HPA.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL

Tropical Storm Griel

Advisory 2

4510 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON EVER-RISING
T-NUMBERS... HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS.

WIND SHEAR IS ALMOST ZERO. WATERS ARE WAY TOO WARM...NEAR 36 DEG C
IN SOME PLACES... AND THIS WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A HURRICANE IN 12-18 HOURS... AND
A MAJOR HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 48.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.8S 10.0E... OR ABOUT 3455 KM... 2160 MILES... EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO,
VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 75 KM/H... 45 MPH...
GUSTING TO 60 KT... AND GRIEL IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H... 15 MPH...
THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA.

BASED ON AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH ARE ALL GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT... GRIEL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS. LATER IN THE
96-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HDCW
EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... AND MAKES GRIEL A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST...
1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 115 MPH...
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 11/0300H... ALL TIMES IN HPT
 INITIAL... 13.8 S 10.0 E... 40 KT
11/0900H... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 55 KT
11/1500H... 14.0 S 08.6 E... 70 KT...CAT 1
12/0300H... 14.0 S 07.9 E... 80 KT
12/1500H... 13.9 S 07.2 E... 95 KT...CAT 2
13/0300H... 13.9 S 06.4 E...115 KT...CAT 4
14/0300H... 13.8 S 04.8 E...145 KT...CAT 5
15/0300H... 14.0 S 03.3 E...120 KT...CAT 4

IT SHOULD BE NOTED LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO ERRORS OF
UP TO 40 KT ON DAY 3... AND 50 KT ON DAY 5.

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 13.8S 10.0E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 HPA.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL

Advisory 3

4510 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

GRIEL IS STARTING TO ENCOUNTER SHEAR FROM A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL LOW...
SSTS ARE ALSO RAPIDLY DECLINING... ALTHOUGH STILL SUPPORT TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY... AT 29 DEG C.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT.

THE MSHPC IS NOT NECESSARILY SKILLED IN FORECASTING THIS PARTICULAR
AREA OF THE HEARTLAND AND WILL RELY HEAVILY ON THE COMPUTER MODELS...
WHICH NOW ALL CALL FOR A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE TOPS.

AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.9 SOUTH
LATITUDE 9.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... 45 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 HPA/MBAR.

COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS... I DO NOT TRUST THEM BUT
THEY WILL HAVE TO DO HERE... FORECAST IS BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS.

FORECAST FOR 72 HOURS
 INITIAL... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 40 KT
11/1500H... 13.8 S 08.7 E... 40 KT
11/2100H... 13.8 S 08.4 E... 45 KT 
12/0900H... 13.9 S 07.6 E... 50 KT 
12/2100H... 13.9 S 06.8 E... 60 KT 
13/0900H... 13.8 S 05.9 E... 70 KT 
14/0900H... 13.9 S 04.2 E... 60 KT

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL

Advisory 4

4510 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 004...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145
CORRECTED TO ADD CO-FORECASTER NAME

GRIEL STRENGTHENS IN 29 DEG C WARM WATERS... INITIAL INTENSITY NOTCHED
UPWARDS TO 55 KNOTS. THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE FAILED THE FORECASTERS...
AND THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON WHAT LITTLE EXPERTISE WE HAVE IN 
FORECASTING STORMS FOR THIS AREA OF THE REGION.

ACCORDINGLY... THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS ONCE AGAIN RAISED TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH... CATEGORY THREE WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO HAS GRIEL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PUERTO NUEVO AS
A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JUST AFTER 96 HOURS.

AT 3 PM HPT TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.8 SOUTH
LATITUDE 8.7 EAST... OR ABOUT 3160 KM... 1975 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 KM/H... 65 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MOVING WEST AT 33 KM/H OR 21 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 990 HPA/MBAR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR AT LEAST 36-48 HOURS.

THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL
STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES...
PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA.
EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES...
PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 11/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 13.8 S 08.7 E... 55 KT
11/2100H... 13.8 S 08.0 E... 65 KT... CAT 1
12/0300H... 13.8 S 07.4 E... 75 KT 
12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E... 85 KT... CAT 2 
13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E... 95 KT 
13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...105 KT... CAT 3
14/1500H... 13.8 S 02.2 E...110 KT
15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...105 KT

WE DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ANOTHER
48 HOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 100 KM... 60 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT.

FORECASTERS LAVAL/RINDLI

Hurricane Griel

Advisory 5

4510 TCWC HPCLC
HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 005
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

GRIEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
FOR ONCE... THE MSHPC IS RIGHT ON WITH FORECASTING THIS STORM...

GRIEL IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. THE VALUE OF 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY WAS REACHED BASED ON CONSENSUS T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH
HDCW AND UHWF.

AT 9 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.8 SOUTH
LATITUDE 8.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 3000 KM... 1875 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 KM/H... 75 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 27 KM/H OR 17
MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 HPA/MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL
STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES...
PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA.
EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES...
PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. 

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM... 100
MILES FROM THE CENTRE... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 45 KM... 30 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST
TRACK... WHICH IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF MODEL CONSENSUS... TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR VASSFFORCIA.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 11/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 13.8 S 08.0 E... 65 KT... CAT 1
12/0300H... 13.8 S 07.4 E... 75 KT 
12/0900H... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 80 KT 
12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E... 90 KT... CAT 2 
13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...100 KT... CAT 3 
13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...105 KT 
14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.5 E...115 KT... CAT 4 
15/2100H... 13.9 S 00.8 W...105 KT

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI