TD14 (2145)
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Subtropical Depression Fourteen | |
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Subtropical Depression | |
As of: | 2300 local time June 12, 2145 |
Location: | 40.5°S 39.5°E About 145 km (90 miles) northwest of Althos |
Maximum winds: |
50 km/h (30 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
Pressure: | 1006 hPa |
Movement: | Nearly stationary |
See first advisory below. Past advisories and discussions available here |
4514 TCWC HPCLC SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN (4514) ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 TROPICAL LOW NORTH OF SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS DEEMED TO BE SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE... AND REACHES DEPRESSION STATUS... AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.5 SOUTH LONGITUDE 39.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 145 KM... 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALTHOS, SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... AND STRENGTHENING INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA... AND SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN IS NEARLY STATIONARY. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE MUCH... IF AT ALL... IN THE COMING DAYS. MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFLE... THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER JUST NORTH OF ALTHOS... AND GRADUALLY GROWING IN SIZE. THE AFLE PROJECTS SLIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND CALLS FOR A SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS... WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS... WHICH MEANS NO SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED... AND ONLY SLOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR. NONETHELESS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 100 MM... 4 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS TO 300 MM... 12 INCHES... IN THE COMING DAY OR TWO. GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... THEREFORE AT THIS TIME A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE CITY OF ALTHOS... AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME 12/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 40.5 S 39.5 E... 25 KT 13/0300H... 40.5 S 39.4 E... 25 KT 13/0900H... 40.5 S 39.4 E... 25 KT 13/2100H... 40.5 S 39.5 E... 30 KT 14/0900H... 40.6 S 39.6 E... 35 KT 14/2100H... 40.8 S 39.7 E... 35 KT... OVER WATER NEAR ALTHOS 15/0900H... 41.0 S 39.9 E... 30 KT... INLAND DISSIPATING 16/0900H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 40.5 SOUTH 39.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KT... HIGHER GUSTS. MOVEMENT... NEARLY STATIONARY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1006 HPA. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER RYAN