TD14 (2145)/Past

Subtropical Depression Fourteen

Advisory 1

4514 TCWC HPCLC
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN (4514) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145

TROPICAL LOW NORTH OF SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS DEEMED TO BE SUBTROPICAL IN
NATURE... AND REACHES DEPRESSION STATUS... 

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.5 SOUTH LONGITUDE 39.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 145
KM... 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALTHOS, SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... AND STRENGTHENING INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD
OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA... AND
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE MUCH... IF AT
ALL... IN THE COMING DAYS. MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES... WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF AFLE... THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER JUST NORTH OF
ALTHOS... AND GRADUALLY GROWING IN SIZE. THE AFLE PROJECTS SLIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND CALLS FOR
A SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS... WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO SOON.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS... WHICH MEANS
NO SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED... AND ONLY SLOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
WILL OCCUR.

NONETHELESS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 100 MM... 4 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS TO 300 MM... 12 INCHES... IN THE COMING DAY OR TWO. GUSTS ARE
CURRENTLY REPORTED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... THEREFORE AT THIS TIME A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE CITY OF ALTHOS... AND THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME 12/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 40.5 S 39.5 E... 25 KT
13/0300H... 40.5 S 39.4 E... 25 KT
13/0900H... 40.5 S 39.4 E... 25 KT
13/2100H... 40.5 S 39.5 E... 30 KT
14/0900H... 40.6 S 39.6 E... 35 KT
14/2100H... 40.8 S 39.7 E... 35 KT... OVER WATER NEAR ALTHOS
15/0900H... 41.0 S 39.9 E... 30 KT... INLAND DISSIPATING
16/0900H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 40.5 SOUTH 39.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KT... HIGHER GUSTS. MOVEMENT... NEARLY STATIONARY. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1006 HPA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER RYAN

Advisory 2

4514 TCWC HPCLC
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN (4514) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN REMAINS STATIONARY... NEW WATCHES
AND WARNINGS ISSUED DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTS TO STORM
STRENGTH...

AT 3 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST
OF SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS FROM 370 KM WEST OF ALTHOS EASTWARD FOR 195
KM... AS WELL AS FROM 195 KM EAST OF ALTHOS EASTWARD FOR 190 KM.
DUE TO THE GROWING SIZE OF S-TD-14... THESE PRECAUTIONARY WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY IN 36
HOURS.

AT 3 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ALTHOS AND ADJACENT
COASTLINE HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS... FROM
175 KM WEST OF ALTHOS TO 195 KM EAST OF ALTHOS... INCLUDING THE
CITY ITSELF. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.
ALL PRECAUTIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED
UP.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.5 SOUTH LONGITUDE 39.4 EAST... OR ABOUT 
145 KM... 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALTHOS, SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH. SOME 
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... AND STRENGTHENING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD OCCUR WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA... AND SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN IS STATIONARY.

WATERS IN THE AREA ARE ONLY ABOUT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS... SO SLOW
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. LANDFALL HAS BEEN JUDGED
BY MOST MODELS TO OCCUR AROUND T-60 HOURS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 100 MM... 4 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS TO 300 MM... 12 INCHES... IN THE COMING DAY OR TWO.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME 13/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 40.5 S 39.4 E... 25 KT
13/0900H... 40.5 S 39.4 E... 25 KT
13/1500H... 40.5 S 39.5 E... 30 KT 
14/0300H... 40.6 S 39.5 E... 35 KT 
14/1500H... 40.7 S 39.6 E... 35 KT... OVER WATER NEAR ALTHOS 
15/0300H... 40.9 S 39.8 E... 30 KT... INLAND NEAR ALTHOS 
15/1500H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 40.5 SOUTH 39.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KT... HIGHER GUSTS. MOVEMENT... NEARLY STATIONARY. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1005 HPA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER RYAN

Advisory 3

4514 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN (4514) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN GAINS FULL TROPICALITY...
NOW STARTING TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARDS...

AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST
OF SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS FROM 370 KM WEST OF ALTHOS EASTWARD FOR 195
KM... AS WELL AS FROM 195 KM EAST OF ALTHOS EASTWARD FOR 190 KM.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY IN 36 HOURS.

AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM 175 KM
WEST OF ALTHOS TO 195 KM EAST OF ALTHOS... INCLUDING THE CITY
ITSELF. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.5 SOUTH LONGITUDE 39.4 EAST... OR ABOUT 
145 KM... 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALTHOS, SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH. SOME GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND TD-14 COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA...
AND TD-14 IS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 5 KM/H... 3 MPH.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 150 MM... 6 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS TO 300 MM... 12 INCHES... IN THE COMING DAY OR TWO.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME 13/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 40.5 S 39.4 E... 30 KT
13/1500H... 40.5 S 39.5 E... 30 KT
13/2100H... 40.5 S 39.5 E... 30 KT 
14/0900H... 40.6 S 39.6 E... 35 KT 
14/2100H... 40.8 S 39.7 E... 35 KT... VERY NEAR ALTHOS 
15/0900H... 41.0 S 39.9 E... 30 KT... INLAND DISSIPATING 
15/2100H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 40.5 SOUTH 39.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KT... HIGHER GUSTS. MOVEMENT... EAST SLOWLY. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1004 HPA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER GUNTHER

Tropical Storm Linas

Advisory 4

4514 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL STORM LINAS (4514) ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145

TD-FOURTEEN STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM... THE FINAL NAME ON
REGULAR NAMING LIST IS USED... TROPICAL STORM LINAS. THE NEXT
TROPICAL STORM WILL BE NAMED FROM THE OLD LISTS.

LINAS HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARDS QUITE QUICKLY/UNEXPECTEDLY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS... AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO ALTHOS.

AT 3 PM HPT... ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALTHOS AND THE
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. ALL
PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE/LOSS OF LIVES SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM LINAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 40.7 SOUTH LONGITUDE 39.6 EAST... OVER SEA BUT
VERY NEAR ALTHOS, SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 HPA... AND LINAS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST SLOWLY.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 150 MM... 6 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS TO 300 MM... 12 INCHES... IN THE COMING DAY OR TWO.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME 13/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 40.7 S 39.6 E... 35 KT... OVER WATER NEAR ALTHOS 
13/2100H... 40.8 S 39.7 E... 40 KT... VERY NEAR ALTHOS
14/0300H... 41.0 S 39.8 E... 25 KT... INLAND DISSIPATING 
15/1500H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 40.7 SOUTH 39.6 EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KT... HIGHER GUSTS. MOVEMENT... SOUTHEAST
SLOWLY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 HPA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT.

FORECASTER GUNTHER