TD14 (2145)/Past

Subtropical Depression Fourteen

Advisory 1

4514 TCWC HPCLC
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN (4514) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145

TROPICAL LOW NORTH OF SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS DEEMED TO BE SUBTROPICAL IN
NATURE... AND REACHES DEPRESSION STATUS... 

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.5 SOUTH LONGITUDE 39.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 145
KM... 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALTHOS, SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT... AND STRENGTHENING INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD
OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA... AND
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE MUCH... IF AT
ALL... IN THE COMING DAYS. MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES... WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF AFLE... THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER JUST NORTH OF
ALTHOS... AND GRADUALLY GROWING IN SIZE. THE AFLE PROJECTS SLIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND CALLS FOR
A SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS... WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO SOON.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS... WHICH MEANS
NO SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED... AND ONLY SLOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
WILL OCCUR.

NONETHELESS... RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 100 MM... 4 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS TO 300 MM... 12 INCHES... IN THE COMING DAY OR TWO. GUSTS ARE
CURRENTLY REPORTED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... THEREFORE AT THIS TIME A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE CITY OF ALTHOS... AND THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME 12/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 40.5 S 39.5 E... 25 KT
13/0300H... 40.5 S 39.4 E... 25 KT
13/0900H... 40.5 S 39.4 E... 25 KT
13/2100H... 40.5 S 39.5 E... 30 KT
14/0900H... 40.6 S 39.6 E... 35 KT
14/2100H... 40.8 S 39.7 E... 35 KT... OVER WATER NEAR ALTHOS
15/0900H... 41.0 S 39.9 E... 30 KT... INLAND DISSIPATING
16/0900H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 40.5 SOUTH 39.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KT... HIGHER GUSTS. MOVEMENT... NEARLY STATIONARY. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1006 HPA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER RYAN