TD10 (2145)/Past
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Tropical Depression Ten
Advisory 1
4510 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (4510) SPECIAL ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 8 PM PAX... 10 PM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 10 2145 RECON DATA IS IN. RECON REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT... WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED... ALBEIT VERY SPARSELY... BY SHIPS IN THE REGION. BASED ON T-NUMBERS FROM HDCW AND UHWF... ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN... LOCATED FAR WEST OF TORQUAY AND FAR EAST OF VASSFFORCIA IN NO-MAN'S LAND... AT 30 KNOTS. WIND SHEAR IS A VERY LOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WATERS ARE WAY TOO WARM... NEAR 35 DEG C IN SOME PLACES... AND THIS MIGHT LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT 10 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 10.4E... OR ABOUT 3580 KM... 2240 MILES... EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO, VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 55 KM/H... 35 MPH... GUSTING TO 45 KT... AND TD-TEN IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H... 15 MPH... THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 HPA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING STORMS THAT ARE IN THIS GENERAL AREA... AS SEEN WITH FELICIA AND GEORGE... THE LOCATION FORECASTS ARE NOT PROVIDED BEYOND 36 HOURS... AND ONLY INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE PROVIDED. BASED ON AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH ARE ALL GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT... TD-TEN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. LATER IN THE 96-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HDCW EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... AND BRINGS TD-TEN TO A CATEGORY FOUR 120-KT HURRICANE. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 115 MPH... INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 10/2200H... ALL TIMES IN HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 10.4 E... 30 KT 10/0300H... 13.8 S 10.0 E... 40 KT 11/0900H... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 45 KT 11/2100H... 14.0 S 08.3 E... 60 KT 12/0900H... 14.0 S 07.6 E... 75 KT 12/2100H... UNAVAILABLE ... 95 KT 13/2100H... UNAVAILABLE ...110 KT 14/2100H... UNAVAILABLE ...120 KT REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION... 13.8S 10.4E OR ABOUT 3580 KM EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 HPA. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER LAVAL
Tropical Storm Griel
Advisory 2
4510 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON EVER-RISING T-NUMBERS... HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. WIND SHEAR IS ALMOST ZERO. WATERS ARE WAY TOO WARM...NEAR 36 DEG C IN SOME PLACES... AND THIS WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A HURRICANE IN 12-18 HOURS... AND A MAJOR HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 48. AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 10.0E... OR ABOUT 3455 KM... 2160 MILES... EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO, VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... GUSTING TO 60 KT... AND GRIEL IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H... 15 MPH... THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA. BASED ON AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH ARE ALL GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT... GRIEL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS. LATER IN THE 96-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HDCW EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... AND MAKES GRIEL A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 115 MPH... INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 11/0300H... ALL TIMES IN HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 10.0 E... 40 KT 11/0900H... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 55 KT 11/1500H... 14.0 S 08.6 E... 70 KT...CAT 1 12/0300H... 14.0 S 07.9 E... 80 KT 12/1500H... 13.9 S 07.2 E... 95 KT...CAT 2 13/0300H... 13.9 S 06.4 E...115 KT...CAT 4 14/0300H... 13.8 S 04.8 E...145 KT...CAT 5 15/0300H... 14.0 S 03.3 E...120 KT...CAT 4 IT SHOULD BE NOTED LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO ERRORS OF UP TO 40 KT ON DAY 3... AND 50 KT ON DAY 5. REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 13.8S 10.0E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT. FORECASTER LAVAL
Advisory 3
4510 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 GRIEL IS STARTING TO ENCOUNTER SHEAR FROM A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL LOW... SSTS ARE ALSO RAPIDLY DECLINING... ALTHOUGH STILL SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY... AT 29 DEG C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT. THE MSHPC IS NOT NECESSARILY SKILLED IN FORECASTING THIS PARTICULAR AREA OF THE HEARTLAND AND WILL RELY HEAVILY ON THE COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH NOW ALL CALL FOR A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE TOPS. AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 SOUTH LONGITUDE 9.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA/MBAR. COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS... I DO NOT TRUST THEM BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO DO HERE... FORECAST IS BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS. FORECAST FOR 72 HOURS INITIAL... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 40 KT 11/1500H... 13.8 S 08.7 E... 40 KT 11/2100H... 13.8 S 08.4 E... 45 KT 12/0900H... 13.9 S 07.6 E... 50 KT 12/2100H... 13.9 S 06.8 E... 60 KT 13/0900H... 13.8 S 05.9 E... 70 KT 14/0900H... 13.9 S 04.2 E... 60 KT THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTER LAVAL
Advisory 4
4510 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 004...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 CORRECTED TO ADD CO-FORECASTER NAME GRIEL STRENGTHENS IN 29 DEG C WARM WATERS... INITIAL INTENSITY NOTCHED UPWARDS TO 55 KNOTS. THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE FAILED THE FORECASTERS... AND THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON WHAT LITTLE EXPERTISE WE HAVE IN FORECASTING STORMS FOR THIS AREA OF THE REGION. ACCORDINGLY... THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS ONCE AGAIN RAISED TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... CATEGORY THREE WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO HAS GRIEL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PUERTO NUEVO AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JUST AFTER 96 HOURS. AT 3 PM HPT TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 8.7 EAST... OR ABOUT 3160 KM... 1975 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 KM/H... 65 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MOVING WEST AT 33 KM/H OR 21 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA/MBAR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 36-48 HOURS. THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES... PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA. EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 11/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 08.7 E... 55 KT 11/2100H... 13.8 S 08.0 E... 65 KT... CAT 1 12/0300H... 13.8 S 07.4 E... 75 KT 12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E... 85 KT... CAT 2 13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E... 95 KT 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...105 KT... CAT 3 14/1500H... 13.8 S 02.2 E...110 KT 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...105 KT WE DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 KM... 60 MILES FROM THE CENTRE. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT. FORECASTERS LAVAL/RINDLI
Hurricane Griel
Advisory 5
4510 TCWC HPCLC HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 005 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 GRIEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... FOR ONCE... THE MSHPC IS RIGHT ON WITH FORECASTING THIS STORM... GRIEL IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. THE VALUE OF 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS REACHED BASED ON CONSENSUS T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH HDCW AND UHWF. AT 9 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 8.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 3000 KM... 1875 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 KM/H... 75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 27 KM/H OR 17 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 HPA/MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES... PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA. EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM... 100 MILES FROM THE CENTRE... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 KM... 30 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... WHICH IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF MODEL CONSENSUS... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR VASSFFORCIA. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 11/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 08.0 E... 65 KT... CAT 1 12/0300H... 13.8 S 07.4 E... 75 KT 12/0900H... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 80 KT 12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E... 90 KT... CAT 2 13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...100 KT... CAT 3 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...105 KT 14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.5 E...115 KT... CAT 4 15/2100H... 13.9 S 00.8 W...105 KT THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER RINDLI
Advisory 6
4510 TCWC HPCLC HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 006...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 CORRECTED FIRST PARA RE SHIP REPORTS GRIEL CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WAY WESTWARD... GETTING EVER STRONGER... RECENT SHIP REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN A 100-NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE OF GRIEL HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS GUSTS TO 100 KT AND SUSTAINED WINDS TO 95 KT. GRIEL IS STRENGTHENING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN 29-DEG C WATERS. A 0214H HPT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED A FEW 95-KT RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS ... AS WELL AS A FEW CLEAN 80-KT VECTORS. AT 0133H PAX... UHWF REPORTED T-NUMBER OF 5.0... WHILE AT 0241H PAX... THE MOST RECENT DATA WE HAVE... HDCW REPORTED T-NUMBER OF 4.5. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL OF THESE FACTORS ... I HAVE DECIDED TO SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 95-KT SHIP REPORTS... PLUS 85 KT IS A GOOD MEAN BETWEEN T-NUMBERS 4.5 OF 77 KT AND 5.0 OF 90 KT. THIS MAKES GRIEL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. AT 3 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 7.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 2870 KM... 1795 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 KM/H... 100 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H OR 16 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 HPA/MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AWAITING GRIEL IS VERY LITTLE. THE 29-DEG C WATERS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO THE EDGE OF VENERATIO... WHEN IT DROPS OFF TO 27 DEG C. WIND SHEAR IS LOW... 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT LAND IS IN THE WAY OR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STORM TO IMPACT IT... YET. THEREFORE IT IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE... AND GRIEL MAY BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM... AND WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN HOW UNRELIABLE THEY ARE IN THIS AREA OF THE HEARTLAND. THEREFORE... THEY HAVE BEEN DISREGARDED. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 KM... 55 MILES ... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR VASSFFORCIA. THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES... PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA. EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 12/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 07.5 E... 85 KT... CAT 2 12/0900H... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 95 KT 12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E...105 KT... CAT 3 13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E...115 KT... CAT 4 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...125 KT 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...130 KT 15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...140 KT... CAT 5 16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 7.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 155 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT BY THE OREAN HEADQUARTERS UNDER REGIONAL HEADER 4510 TCWC HPCOR. FORECASTER RINDLI
Advisory 7
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 007 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 GRIEL STRENGTHENS FURTHER AND IS NOW A 95-KT HURRICANE... AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.S SOUTH LONGITUDE 6.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 2710 KM... 1695 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 KM/H... 110 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A HIGH-END CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND COULD SOON BECOME THE SEASON'S SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H OR 16 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 HPA/ MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. I WILL HAVE TO BORROW HEAVILY FROM THE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION... AWAITING GRIEL IS VERY LITTLE. THE 29-DEG C WATERS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO THE EDGE OF VENERATIO... WHEN IT DROPS OFF TO 27 DEG C. WIND SHEAR IS LOW... 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT LAND IS IN THE WAY OR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STORM TO IMPACT IT... YET. THEREFORE IT IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE... AND GRIEL MAY BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM... AND WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN HOW UNRELIABLE THEY ARE IN THIS AREA OF THE HEARTLAND. THEREFORE... THEY HAVE BEEN DISREGARDED. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 KM... 60 MILES ... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR VASSFFORCIA. THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES... PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA. EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 12/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 95 KT... CAT 2 12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E...105 KT... CAT 3 12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E...110 KT 13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...120 KT... CAT 4 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...125 KT 14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...135 KT 15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT 16/0900H... 13.8 S 02.0 W... 95 KT REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 6.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 175 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTER CALTS
Advisory 8
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 008...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 CORRECTED TO ADD PARA ON TS WATCHES ..GRIEL NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PRUBDABLIA SOUTH TO COAST OF IBPORTIA... LOCAL SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL ADVISORIES FROM VASSFFORCIA ARE IN EFFECT... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 110 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES... HDCW... UHWF... HWS... HPD 26. HOWEVER... DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS... AS WELL AS A RAIN-MARRED QUIKSCAT PASS A WHILE AGO MEANS THAT WE'LL BE SETTING INITIAL INTENSITY AT 105 KT... MAKING GRIEL THE SEASON'S SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE AFTER YURI. AT 3 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 SOUTH LONGITUDE 6.2 EAST... OR ABOUT 2420 KM... 1510 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 195 KM/H... 120 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 40 KM/H OR 25 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 HPA/MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... CULMINATING IN LANDFALL VERY NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF VASSFFORICA... FROM THE COAST OF IBPORTIA NORTHWARD TO PRUBDABLIA ... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 300 KM... 190 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 KM... 65 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. THE FORECAST IS OMINOUS... AND IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE THE MODELS ARE WILLING TO CO-OPERATE WITH US. AFLE SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST GRIP ON THIS SYSTEM... BUT ITS INTENSITY IS WAY OFF. IN CONTRAST ... HDCW EXTRAPOLATED ISN'T VERY GOOD WITH THE TRACK... TAKING GRIEL AS FAR NORTH AS 13.0 NORTH AT 120 HOURS... WHICH IS QUITE RIDICULOUS... BUT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA ON INTENSITY. AS A RESULT... THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE MSHPC'S PREVIOUS ONE... WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWING THE HDCW. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS... YET... UNTIL GRIEL REACHES THE EDGE OF THE VENERATIO CONTINENT WHERE WATERS START TO DROP TO ABOUT 27 C. TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES... PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA. EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 12/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.9 S 06.2 E...105 KT... CAT 3 12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E...110 KT 13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E...115 KT... CAT 4 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...125 KT 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...130 KT 14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...135 KT 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...120 KT 16/1500H... 13.8 S 02.5 W... 75 KT...VERY CLOSE TO LAND REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 6.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 195 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT. FORECASTERS JARVINEN/HARDING
Advisory 9
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 009 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 ..GRIEL STRENGTHENS INTO SEASON'S SECOND CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT... SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL UNV HAS ISSUED EVACUATION ORDERS... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR MORE INFORMATION. MODELS INITIALISED GRIEL AT 110 KT... BUT GRIEL'S IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR SETTING INITIAL INTENSITY AT 115 KNOTS... OR CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. FURTHER GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND GRIEL COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. AT 9 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 SOUTH LONGITUDE 5.7 EAST... OR ABOUT 2290 KM... 1430 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 215 KM/H... 135 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 22 KM/H OR 14 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 HPA/MBAR. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO... AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT COAST. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF VASSFFORICA... FROM THE COAST OF IBPORTIA NORTHWARD TO PRUBDABLIA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS... WHILE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 340 KM... 215 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 KM... 75 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. HURRICANE ADVISORY/ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE UNV SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL... PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL BULLETINS FOR MORE INFORMATION. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 12/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.9 S 05.7 E...115 KT... CAT 4 13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E...120 KT 13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...125 KT 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...130 KT 14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...135 KT 14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...140 KT... CAT 5 15/2100H... 13.9 S 00.8 W...105 KT 16/2100H... 13.0 S 03.5 W... 50 KT... INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 5.7 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 215 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 22 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTERS JARVINEN/HARDING
Advisory 10
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 011...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145 CORRECTED TO UPDATE TS WARN/WATCH FOR PRUBDABLIA REGION GRIEL CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD FOR 325 KM AS WELL AS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE OF ANIMUS ANI-01 IN THE SANXAY STRAIT. AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF VASSFFORICA FAR SOUTH OF PRUBDABLIA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO AND THE ADJACENT COAST... NORTHWARD TO THE POINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF VENERATIO VEN-01 HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH. AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VEN-01 HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WATCHES MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 4.6 EAST... OR ABOUT 2000 KM... 1250 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 230 KM/H... 145 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 HPA/MBAR. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 KM... 280 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 KM... 160 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. HURRICANE ADVISORY/ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE UNV SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL... PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL BULLETINS FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS OR EVACUATION ORDERS. DISCUSSION... GRIEL HAS BECOME THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO FAR THIS YEAR... SURPASSING DEADLY HURRICANE YURI. NO VISIBLE SIGNS THAT THIS STRENGTHENING TREND WILL BUCKLE... AND SO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS ALMOST DUE WEST... 278/12. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... GRIEL WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 13/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 04.6 E...125 KT... CAT 4 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...130 KT 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...135 KT 14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...145 KT... CAT 5 14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...155 KT 15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT... CAT 4 16/0900H... 13.7 S 02.0 W... 95 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL 17/0900H...DISSIPATED OVER WATER NORTH OF VASSFORCIA LA SERENÍSIMA REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 4.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 230 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT... WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 12 PM HPT. FORECASTERS RINDLI/HUNTER
