TD17 (2145)/Past

Tropical Depression Seventeen

Advisory 1

4517 TCWC MSHPC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN (4517) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU HPCLC
CYCLONSVILLE WT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND WARNING CENTRE HPCWT
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME JUL 28 2145

SYSTEM THAT PREVIOUSLY CROSSED THE COAST BEFORE NUMBERED WARNINGS
COULD BE INITIATED NOW INDICATED TO BE CENTRED OFF THE COAST OF
POPULARFREEDOM... AND WITH SUFFICIENT ORGANISATION... WARNINGS ARE
INITIATED ON THE 17TH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON... AT 30 KT.

AS THIS SYSTEM IS A MIDGET SYSTEM... IT COULD STRENGTHEN VERY RAPIDLY
OVER 27-28 DEG C SSTS. LIKEWISE... HOWEVER... IT COULD WEAKEN VERY
QUICKLY INLAND AS WELL. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS CYCLONE HAS NOT
BEEN EASY... GIVEN THE APPARENT LACK OF ANY STEERING MECHANISM AT
THIS POINT.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED
BY QUIKSCAT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.2 EAST...
OR ABOUT 50 KM... 30 MILES... EAST OF MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF FASTER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTHENING.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1009 HPA OR MBAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY.

TD-SEVENTEEN IS IN AN AREA OF 10-15 KNOT SHEAR... AND 27-28 DEGREE C SSTS.
THESE ARE SIGNS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING... AND WITH SUCH A MIDGET SYSTEM
- NO MORE THAN 50 NM... 95 KM... ACROSS... RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN DIFFICULT... BUT HAVE KEPT IT STATIONARY
FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 200 MM...
8 IN... ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAGNA CARTA... AND OF UP TO 100 MM... 4 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LOCKE HARBOR. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
BOTH CITIES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT THE NEXT ADVISORY.
IN THE LONG RUN... MODELS ARE DIVERGENT. SOME TAKE THIS NE-WARDS... BUT
MOST MAJOR ONES... INCLUDING THE UHWF AND AFLE... TAKE IT INLAND AS A 50-KT
TROPICAL STORM... AFTER SOME MEANDERING. ACCORDINGLY THAT IS REFLECTED...
HOWEVER... RE-EMERGENCE INTO WATER IS EXPECTED.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 28/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT.
 INITIAL... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 30 KT
29/0300H... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 35 KT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS POSSIBLE
29/0900H... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 45 KT 
29/2100H... 41.7 N 34.3 E... 55 KT 
30/0900H... 41.6 N 34.4 E... 65 KT 
30/2100H... 41.6 N 34.0 E... 50 KT...NEAR LANDFALL 
31/2100H... 42.3 N 38.0 E... 40 KT...NEAR LOCKE HARBOR
01/0900H...DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 41.6 N 34.2 E... ABOUT 50 KM EAST OF
MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE JOINTLY RELEASED BY HPCLC AND HPCWT AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTERS LAVAL/STELIVA

Tropical Cyclone Update

TCUP TCWC HPCWT CCB
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN (4517) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
CYCLONESVILLE WT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND WARNING CENTRE
10 PM PAX JUL 28... 12 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 29 2145
CORRECTED FOR GRAMMAR 2 AM HPT

THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME TO UPDATE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES.

AS OF 2 AM LOCAL TIME... 12 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FOR THE COASTAL CITY OF
MAGNA CARTA... AND UP AND DOWN THE COAST 50 KM EITHER WAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS FURTHER IN EFFECT NORTHWARDS TO...
AND INCLUDING... THE CITY OF LOCKE HARBOR.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE JOINTLY RELEASED BY HPCLC AND HPCWT AT
3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER FRABANK