TD02 (2146)

TCAD2 HPCOR 051545
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 006
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME

TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA)

RECON AIRCRAFT IS DUE IN TO INVESTIGATE MORDREL AROUND 1200 LOCAL TIME LATER
TODAY. BEFORE THEN... I HAVE THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE TO WRITE... AND SO BASED
ON CONTINUITY WILL USE THE INFORMATION WE HAD AT THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
THREE HOURS AGO. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL HAS BECOME BETTER CONSOLIDATED...
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CURRENTLY AT A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KTS
FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO MAXIMUM WIND SPEED AT THIS
POINT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KTS. MORDREL/ARIANA IS LOOKING GOOD
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
I AM UNDER-ESTIMATING THE INTENSITY OF MORDREL RIGHT NOW. INITIAL 24-HOUR
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 030/25.

AT 3 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARRIER ISLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF GRAND ISLAND.

AT 3 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARITAS COAST
FROM THE COASTAL EDGE OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK IN HERCONIA NORTHWARD TO
COVASNA.

IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 36-48 
HOURS. 

AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA) WAS ESTIMATED BY
MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 23.0 WEST...
ABOUT 2615 KM... 1635 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD OR ABOUT 1420 KM... 885 MI
NORTHWEST OF FERONIA, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H
OR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... WITH SOME MINIMAL STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 997 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING
SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 46 KM/H... 29 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 210 KM... 130 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE.

NO RAINFALL DIRECTLY FROM MORDREL IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING OR WATCH AREAS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ALTHOUGH TRACE AMOUNTS TO TWO INCHES... 50 MM... ARE POSSIBLE
ON BARRIER ISLAND DUE TO THE LARGER LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE AREA.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST AND FASTER THAN THE LAST ONE... FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS... BUT STILL FOLLOWS THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. THE LOW IS THE MAIN COMPLICATING
FACTOR HERE... AND WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS. INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS FROM 45 KT TO 40.

A RIVER/LAKE OVERFLOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TOZAI, MORIANTON... IN THE EXPECTATION
THAT THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI WILL OVERFLOW DURING PASSAGE OF MORDREL THROUGH MORIANTON.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 05/1500H
 INITIAL... 07.2 N 23.0 W... 35 KT 
06/0300H... 08.6 N 22.0 W... 35 KT 
06/1500H... 10.5 N 20.4 W... 35 KT 
07/0300H... 12.2 N 18.5 W... 40 KT 
07/1500H... 13.8 N 16.6 W... 40 KT 
08/0300H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 40 KT...LANDFALL 
08/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 07.2 NORTH 23.0 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 25 KT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF ÎLE GRANDE
AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS
FROM THE COASTAL EDGE OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK IN HERCONIA TO THE SETTLEMENT OF
COVASNA, FORMER TANTAVIA.

THE NEXT FULL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT. AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 1815 HPT. IF THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ANY NEW INFORMATION
EITHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE OR SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IN PLACE OF THE
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW02 FOLN 051545
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 1545 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        1500 21460505
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         6
POSITION:           7.2N 23.0W
ACCURACY:           30NM
MOVEMENT:           NNE 25KT
CENT PRES:          997HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           45KT
FCST 12HR:          8.6N 22.0W
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G50KT
NXT WRN:            1210 21460505=

BPCT2 HPCOR 051600
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 6
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 5 MAI 2146

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/ARIANA/4602 [997 HPA].

POSITION LE 5 MAI À 15 HEURES HPT: 07.2 NORD / 23.0 OUEST
(SEPT DEGRES DEUX NORD ET VINGT-TROIS DEGRES OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 25 KT

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
LES BULLETINS SUR LES CYCLONES TROPICAUX NE SERONT PLUS EN FRANÇAIS.
MERCI POUR L'USAGE DES BULLETINS FRANÇAIS.