Liverpool England MSHPC Tropical Weather Updates

Tropical Weather Updates are 12-hourly outlook bulletins issued during cyclone season by the Liverpool England Meteorological Service Hurricane Prediction Centre that summarises tropical weather activity in The Heartland, and gives a short-term forecast of possible development of tropical cyclones. They are sometimes issued outside-of-season, at a rate of one every 24 hours, when there is (rare) tropical activity.

TWUTH HPCOR 291500
TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 PM HPT BULLETIN MARCH 29 2146

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 998 HPA NEAR 2.8N 38.9E MOVING ENE VERY SLOWLY
RECON FROM YESTERDAY FOUND THAT THERE WAS NO CLOSED CIRCULATION
SO NO ADVISORIES WERE INITIATED. HOWEVER... SATELLITE SIGNATURE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO
THE SYSTEM AT AROUND 6 PM HPT. CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE
T1.5 FROM ALL HDCW AND UHWF... AND T2.0/30 KT FROM AFLE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 30 KT. BASED ON THE
MSHPC'S TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION GUIDELINES... THIS SYSTEM
RATES 37 POINTS.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS
IN THE GENERAL AREA OF 3 DEG N LATITUDE/39 DEG E LONGITUDE. SSTS ARE NEAR
29 DEG C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE... 15-20 KT... BUT EXPECTED
TO LIGHTEN. LLCC CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO NORTH
AND EAST OF SYSTEM... LLCC REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO SW OF CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO GET GOING THERE. POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS FORMATION ALERT WILL
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING... REISSUED... OR CANCELLED BY 1500 HPT MARCH 30.

NO OTHER DISTURBANCES OBSERVED.

NEXT TWU ISSUANCE AT 1500 HPT MARCH 30... OR EARLIER IF ADVISORIES INITIATED.

FORECASTER HUNTER