Difference between revisions of "Liverpool England MSHPC cyclone summary"

Revision as of 01:46, 3 September 2006

The Liverpool England Meterological Service Hurricane Prediction Centre releases monthly summaries of tropical cyclone activity during the active season (February through December) in The Heartland.
/Past summaries

TCMS TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHLY SUMMARY
MARCH 2145
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE, OREAN
3 AM HPT APRIL 4 2145

MARCH WAS UNUSUALLY ACTIVE THIS YEAR... WITH SIX TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMING IN
THE HEARTLAND. OF THESE SIX... FIVE... FELICIA... RUVA... ABADDON... YURI AND
GYARNIFQ... WERE NAMED... AND ONE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR... IS BEING
RETROACTIVELY UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FOUR. OF THESE SIX TROPICAL STORMS...
TWO... ABADDON AND YURI... GAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH... WITH YURI BREAKING
HURRICANE VEIRU'S RECORD FOR DEATHS CAUSED.

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS FIRST OBSERVED AS A LOW-PRESSURE AREA ON THE OFFICIAL
START OF THE SEASON... MARCH 1. EARLY ON THE 2ND THE MSHPC DETERMINED THAT FELICIA
HAD GAINED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND ORGANISATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL STORM
WITH 35-40 KT WINDS WEST OF TORQUAY. WIND SHEAR QUICKLY SET IN CAUSING FELICIA TO
WEAKEN. IT WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THE SAME DAY... AND DISSIPATED
ON MARCH 3. NO DEATHS OR DAMAGE REPORTED.

TROPICAL STORM FOUR FORMED ON MARCH 3 NEAR THE PAX MERIDIAN... THE BORDER BETWEEN
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST DISTRICTS. WHILE TROPICAL STORM FOUR NECESSITATED
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS... IT NEVER REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OPERATIONALLY,
WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL 45 KT AT THE FINAL ADVISORY. FOUR'S SECOND ADVISORY WAS
OPERATIONALLY RELEASED WITH 30-KT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS BUT NOTED THAT A BUOY
HAD REPORTED TWO-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 40 KT. AS SUCH... IN POST-STORM
ANALYSIS... THE MSHPC HAS DECIDED TO INCREASE THIS VALUE TO 35 KT... HENCE MAKING
FOUR A TROPICAL STORM AND ADDING 0.1225 TO THE SEASONAL ACE VALUE. THE STORM
QUICKLY LOST TROPICALITY AND CAUSED NO DEATHS OR DAMAGE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED EAST OF SCHIMPOL, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND ON MARCH 3. A
QUICK-MOVING SHORT-LIVED STORM, IT MADE LANDFALL NEAR LOYALTY BAY, DISSIPATING
INLAND OVER THE LOYALTY MOUNTAINS. THREE INDIRECT DEATHS CAME FROM RUVA... ALTHOUGH
NO MAJOR DAMAGE WAS REPORTED. RUVA ALSO SPAWNED ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION, WHICH
WOULD GO ON TO BECOME HURRICANE ABADDON.

IN AN OUTER BAND OF RUVA, A LOW-PRESSURE CENTRE SEEMED TO BE DEVELOPING. WITH SUDDEN
BURSTS OF CONVECTION LATE ON MARCH 3 AND CONFIRMATION FROM A RECON FLIGHT THAT THE
SYSTEM WAS SEPERATE FROM RUVA, ADVISORIES WERE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX.
THREE HOURS LATER, THE SYSTEM HAD SLOWED DOWN ENOUGH TO BE FULLY APART FROM RUVA, AND
HAD BEEN INTENSIFYING OVER WARM WATERS. TROPICAL STORM ABADDON QUICKLY BECAME A
HURRICANE, BUT IN THE WAKE OF RUVA IT WEAKENED ALMOST AS FAST AS IT STRENGTHENED,
PEAKING ONLY AS A CATEGORY TWO 90-KNOT HURRICANE. ABADDON MADE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL
STORM NORTH OF LOYALTY BAY, KILLING FOUR. TWO DAYS LATER, A REMNANT LOW AREA HAD GAINED
CONVECTION ABOUT 1000 KM SOUTHWEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS. AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION, ADVISORIES
WERE RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABADDON, WHICH QUICKLY MADE LANDFALL. ABADDON
CAUSED NO REPORTED DAMAGES.

YURI FORMED FROM A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL ON MARCH 4.
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE (TCWC LLIWO) FIRST
PICKED IT UP AS A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 300 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL ON MARCH 4. THIS SYSTEM
WAS NEVER CLASSIFIED AS A DEPRESSION TO START WITH FROM EITHER TCWC LLIWO OR RSMC-TCWC
MSHPC. YURI WEAKENED LATER THAT DAY... AND ADVISORIES WERE DISCONTINUED THE SAME NIGHT
BY THE MSHPC. THE TCWC CONTINUED TO ISSUE ADVISORIES... ALL THE WHILE FORECASTING
ALPHA.01... THE OFFICIAL TCWC LLIWO DESIGNATION FOR 4507 YURI... TO REGAIN TROPICAL
STORM... AND EVEN HURRICANE... STRENGTH. WHEN TCWC LLIWO REUPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ALPHA TO A TROPICAL STORM... THEY INFORMED THE MSHPC... WHICH DID NOT RESUME ADVISORIES
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL HDCW AND UHWF REPORTS CONFIRMED T-NUMBERS OF CLOSE TO 3.0. ADVISORIES
WERE RESUMED AT 0930H LST ON MARCH 5... 12 HOURS AFTER THE FINAL ADVISORY WAS RELEASED.
YURI THEN MOVED OVER MUCH WARMER WATERS AS IT MOVED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST, TRIGGERING
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE EASTERN LOX LAND ISLAND COAST. THE SYSTEM THEN SPED UP,
TAKING A SLIGHT JIG TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING BACK EAST, AIMING STRAIGHT FOR
PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. THE EASTWARDS MOTION CONTINUED, AND YURI MADE LANDFALL
AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE - THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALL SINCE THE MSHPC TOOK
OVER RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. YURI WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
BUT QUICKLY RE-EMERGED INTO WATER, TRIGGERING TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR WORKERS POINT.
YURI HEADED NORTHEASTWARDS BEFORE MAKING AN ANTI-CLOCKWISE LOOP, MAKING LANDFALL ON
WORKERS POINT AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. YURI DISSIPATED INLAND... TRIGGERING FLOOD
WATCHES AND TORNADO WARNINGS. OVER 400 DEATHS ARE BLAMED ON YURI... WITH OVER ONE BILLION
LIVERPOOL POUNDS IN DAMAGE... SETTING NEW HEARTLAND RECORDS.

GYARNIFQ STARTED LIFE AS A LOW EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF POPULARFREEDOM. WHEN
IT WAS FINALLY DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT, CONDITIONS WERE NOT FAVOURABLE.
HOWEVER, IT MANAGED TO GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL, MAKING
LANDFALL AS A 40-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. NO DAMAGES WERE REPORTED, ALTHOUGH TWO PEOPLE
WERE KILLED.

THIS MAKES THE MONTH OF MARCH ONE OF THE MOST ACTIVE... COSTLY... AND DEADLY... ON
RECORD.

SUMMARY TABLE
STR  NAME         NUMBER    DURATION    MAX WIND    DEATHS     LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
                                           KT                       DAMAGE
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TS   FELICIA       4503     02-03 MAR      40        NONE            NONE
TS** FOUR          4504       03  MAR      35**      NONE            NONE
TS   RUVA          4505     03-04 MAR      50           3            NONE
H    ABADDON       4506     03-04 MAR      
                            05-06 MAR      90           4            NONE
H    YURI          4507       04  MAR
                            05-09 MAR     120         404*        16 000 000
TS   GYARNIFQ      4508     06-08 MAR      40           2            NONE

MONTHLY TOTAL        6      02-09 MAR                 413         16 000 000

*PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
**UPGRADED IN POST-STORM ANALYSIS
DATES ARE BASED ON LOCAL TIME
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FORECASTERS CALTS/RINDLI/HUNTER/GUNTHER