Difference between revisions of "Liverpool England MSHPC cyclone summary"

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[[/Past summaries]]
 
[[/Past summaries]]
 
----
 
----
  TCMS TCWC HPCOR CCC
+
  TCMS TCWC HPCOR
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHLY SUMMARY
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHLY SUMMARY
  JUNE 2145
+
  JULY 2145
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE, OREAN
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE, OREAN
  3 AM HPT JUL 1 2145
+
  3 PM HPT AUG 1 2145
 
  UPDATED 3 AM HPT JUL 23 2145
 
  UPDATED 3 AM HPT JUL 23 2145
 
   
 
   
  SIX TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN JUNE... WELL ABOVE THE MONTHLY EXTRAPOLATED AVERAGE
+
  JULY WAS RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH... WHEN WE SAW A TOTAL OF
  OF FOUR. OF THE SIX... FIVE... NITSCHKE 4511... GRIEL 4510... MIRSCQY 4513...
+
  FOUR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES IN A LITTLE OVER A WEEK. TWO TROPICAL
  LINAS 4514 AND AMY 4515... WERE NAMED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS THE ONLY
+
  DEPRESSIONS... AND TWO NAMED STORMS - ONE SUBTROPICAL - FORMED. THE MONTHLY
  UNNAMED STORM OF THE MONTH... BUT STILL BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO AREAS
+
  EXTRAPOLATED AVERAGE FOR JULY IS FIVE... SO THIS WAS STILL A BELOW-AVERAGE
  OF KOMPA RU.
+
  MONTH.
 
   
 
   
  THE FIRST AND LONGEST-LASTING STORM OF THE MONTH... IMPRESSIVE CATEGORY FIVE
+
  THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE MONTH WAS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (4516)...
HURRICANE GRIEL (4510)... FORMED ON JUNE 10 FROM A DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE WEST OF
+
  WAS DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 5 PM HPT ON JULY 22 AFTER AN AFLE RECON
  TORQUAY THAT HAD BEEN CONTINUALLY GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT A DAY. AN AFLE
+
  PLANE FOUND EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM WAS INITIATED AT 25 KT
  RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FLEW INTO THE SYSTEM ON JUNE 10 AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS
+
  BASED ON THE REPORT FROM THE AIRCRAFT. DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ... NO SIGNIFICANT
ISSUED AT 10/2200 HPT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT. COUPLED
+
  DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED. A NEARBY TUTT... TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH... IMPARTED
  WITH SPARSE SHIP REPORTS OF 35 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS AT THE TIME
+
  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHEAR ONTO THE CYCLONE... AND THE FINAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
THE SYSTEM WAS INITIATED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
+
  AT 9 AM HPT JULY 23 WHEN RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE SYSTEM HAD
STORM FIVE HOURS LATER BUT INSTEAD OF BEING NAMED NITSCHKE - THE NEXT NAME ON THE LIST
+
  DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE.
- A DECISION WAS TAKEN TO NAME IT GRIEL, AS IT WAS DECIDED THAT STORM 4511 HAD REACHED
+
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EARLIER THAN 4510 AND HENCE WOULD TAKE THE NEXT AVAILABLE NAME.
+
AN INTERESTING POINT TO NOTE ABOUT THIS STORM WAS THAT WHILE TROPICAL... IT WAS ALWAYS
+
  WITHIN A HALF DEGREE LATITUDE OF 14.0 SOUTH. GRIEL CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST AND
+
STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE AT 11/2100 HPT - BARELY 24 HOURS AFTER FORMING. CONSENSUS
+
DATA-T OF 4.0 FROM HDCW AND UHWF WAS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING GRIEL TO A 65-KT HURRICANE.
+
ITS WESTWARD PATH CONTINUED AND AS IT MOVED OVER WARM WATERS GRIEL CONTINUED ITS
+
INTENSIFICATION, BECOMING A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE JUST SIX HOURS LATER. THIS ADVISORY
+
... THE 6TH... WAS ALSO THE FIRST WHILE GRIEL WAS A HURRICANE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
+
  OF A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. AT 12/1500 HPT THE DECISION WAS MADE TO UPGRADE GRIEL TO A
+
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH 105-KNOT WINDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS PUT IN PLACE AT
+
THIS TIME FOR THE COAST OF VASSFFORCIA. AGAIN... GRIEL'S RAPID STRENGTHENING PHASE BUMPED
+
IT UP ANOTHER CATEGORY AT THE NEXT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT WAS DECIDED TO PUT A TROPICAL
+
  STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO NUEVO. FURTHER WARNINGS AND WATCHES WERE SOON NEEDED
+
FOR THE SOUTHERN VENERATIO-01 AND NORTHERN ANIMUS-01 COASTS. AT 13/1500 HPT A NEW REGIONAL
+
RECORD FOR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 928 HPA... AND AN AFLE RECON AIRCRAFT
+
WAS SCRAMBLED. A SIGNIFICANT RELOCATION OCCURRED AT 14/0300 HPT WITH THE FINDINGS OF THIS
+
RECON FLIGHT... WHICH PLACED THE CENTRE OF GRIEL WEST OF THE EXPECTED POSITION. IT WAS
+
ALSO AT THIS ADVISORY WHERE THE AFLE PLANE REPORTED 140-KT WINDS FROM A DROPSONDE... AS
+
WELL AS A 907 HPA MINIMUM PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE READING FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS ESTIMATED
+
AT 903 HPA AS THE READING WAS NOT FROM THE CENTRE. HOWEVER, THE 140-KT INTENSITY WAS
+
UTILISED... MAKING GRIEL THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OR CYCLONE THAT THE MSHPC OR
+
EX-MSCPC HAD WARNED ON FOR SIX YEARS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE FOR THIS CYCLONE... ALONG
+
  WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS... WERE REPORTED AT THE NEXT ADVISORY - 145 KT, 899 HPA - MAKING
+
GRIEL THE STRONGEST CYCLONE EVER ON RECORD IN THE REGION. AT THIS POINT - 14/0900HPT...
+
GRIEL HAD WOBBLED TO THE WNW... FORCING HURRICANE WARNINGS TO GO INTO EFFECT FOR
+
PRUBDABLIA. A RAPID WEAKENING THEN ENSUED AS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE TOOK PLACE AND
+
GRIEL WOBBLED BACK ONTO ITS ORIGINAL PATH... NOW AS A 135-KT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. FURTHER
+
WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL AT 15/1220 HPT AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. IN ALL GRIEL KILLED
+
AT LEAST 40... AND CAUSED AS MUCH AS 13 BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS IN DAMAGE. THE STORM
+
BECAME EXTRATROPICAL INLAND LATER THAT DAY AND ADVISORIES WERE STOPPED AT 15/1500 HPT.
+
 
   
 
   
  NITSCHKE WAS ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT WARRANTED A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO INITIATE THE SYSTEM. AT
+
  A MIDGET SYSTEM WAS SPOTTED NEAR MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM ABOUT A WEEK AFTER
  THE SAME TIME THAT TD-TEN WAS NUMBERED... TWO SHIPS... SSC ARMADON AND NLES RUSSELL...
+
  THE DISSIPATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN. HOWEVER... BEFORE ANY NUMBERED
  REPORTED CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 KM OF THE CENTRE OF A DISTURBANCE
+
WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED... THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL. SHORTLY AFTER, QUIKSCAT
  LOCATED ABOUT 700 KM SOUTHWEST OF VICTORY UNION. THE SYSTEM WAS INITIATED AS A 30-KT
+
CONFIRMED A REFORMED CENTRE OF CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST, AND ADVISORIES WERE
  DEPRESSION... ALTHOUGH DISCUSSIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER WAY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS
+
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN (4517) AT 9 PM HPT JULY 28. A TROPICAL
  VALUE WILL BE UPPED TO 35 KT IN THE POST-STORM TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT. THE STORM WAS
+
  CYCLONE UPDATE WAS ISSUED THREE HOURS LATER TO PUT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND
  UPGRADED TO A 40-KT SYSTEM AT THE NEXT ADVISORY BASED ON AN IMPROVING SATELLITE
+
  WARNINGS INTO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST. IT STRENGTHENED
  APPEARANCE AND SOON COMMENCED ON A LOOP PATH. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY LOST TROPICALITY AND
+
INTO A TROPICAL STORM AT THE NEXT ADVISORY AND WAS NAMED BRENT WITH THE SECOND NAME
  WAS DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL ON JUNE 11.
+
  FROM THE OLD LISTS. BECAUSE OF ITS MIDGET SIZE... THE FORECAST CALLED FOR HURRICANE
 +
  INTENSITY. HOWEVER... IT MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 0817 HPT JULY 29. THE LOW SOON
 +
  DECOUPLED FROM CONVECTION... AND A FINAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT JULY 30.
 +
  BRENT CAUSED HALF A BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS WORTH OF DAMAGE FROM FLOODING... BUT
 +
  NO CASUALTIES WERE REPORTED.
 
   
 
   
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS A RAIN-BRINGER TO MANY PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL EASTERN
+
  SUBTROPICAL STORM CASSANDRA WAS NAMED ON JULY 30 WHILE EAST OF THE OLD BORDER BETWEEN
  PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST DISTRICT OF THE HEARTLAND. IT BEGAN AS A DISTURBANCE BUT NEVER
+
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AND THE FORMER UPPER BISWALD. QUIKSCAT INDICATED 40 KT WINDS AND
  GAINED ENOUGH ORGANISATION TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL EARLY JUNE 11. DUE
+
  SHIP REPORTS INDICATED 50-KT WINDS... SO INITIAL INTENSITY WAS 45 KT. THE STORM
TO ITS GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... WATCHES WERE PUT INTO EFFECT. HOWEVER,
+
  INTENSIFIED INTO A 65-KT SUBTROPICAL STORM... HURRICANE INTENSITY... BUT RETAINED
INTERACTION WITH LAND MEANT THAT THE SYSTEM NEVER STRENGTHENED BEYOND ITS INITIAL ADVISORY
+
  SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND HENCE WAS NOT UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH
  INTENSITY OF 30 KT. IT DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW 12 HOURS AFTER THE FIRST ADVISORY.
+
  THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCAL POINT OF POST-STORM ANALYSIS. IT LOST TROPICALITY AT 3 PM
  HOWEVER... IT REMAINED A POTENT SYSTEM WITH THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE PICKING UP ON
+
  HPT JULY 30 AND A FINAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED WITH THE SYSTEM NEVER HAVING AFFECTED LAND.
  THE SYSTEM AND ISSUING FOUR ADVISORIES. UP TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN WERE REPORTED IN
+
  EAST KOMPA RU AND KOMPA RU... AS WELL AS UP TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ON THE OFFSHORE PARQUE
+
DE CORRACION. THREE DEATHS WERE REPORTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.
+
 
   
 
   
  TROPICAL STORM MIRSCQY WAS A WEIRD SYSTEM... BOTH IN NAME AND IN ITS LIFESPAN. THE SHORT-
+
  THE FINAL SYSTEM OF THE MONTH... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN... FORMED FROM THE
LIVED STORM MOVED SOUTH OFF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
+
  REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRENT. IN STRONG SHEAR... IT NEVER REALLY
WHICH IS RARE. IT WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT LOST EXTRATROPICALITY DUE TO A
+
  HAD A CHANCE... AND DISSIPATED WITHIN A DAY OF ITS FORMATION.
WEATHER FRONT.
+
+
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORMED NORTH OF ALTHOS, SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS LATE ON JUNE 12.
+
THE SYSTEM... WHICH HAD BEEN MONITORED FOR ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF... WAS DETERMINED TO
+
  BE SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AND WITH ENOUGH ORGANISATION TO WARRANT A DESIGNATION. TROPICAL
+
STORM WARNINGS WERE SOON ISSUED FOR ALTHOS DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO STORM STRENGTH -- A
+
SHIP... CALL SIGN SNX334X... REPORTED A GUST TO 42 KT NEAR ALTHOS. THE STORM THEN SPED
+
  UP A BIT IN FORWARD SPEED AND STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR ALTHOS... MAKING
+
LANDFALL NOT LONG AFTER, KILLING SEVEN.
+
+
THE FINAL STORM OF THE MONTH FORMED FROM A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
+
WAS ORIGINALLY SPOTTED SOUTH OF LOX LAND ISLAND. THE SYSTEM MOVED OVER THE ISLAND,
+
CAUSING WIND DAMAGE, BEFORE STRENGTHENING AND ORGANISING IN WARM WATERS NORTHEAST
+
OF SCHIMPOL. IT WAS DESIGNATED A TROPICAL STORM AT THE INITIAL ADVISORY AND NAMED
+
AMY WITH THE FIRST NAME OFF THE OLD NAMING LISTS. THE SYSTEM FAILED TO STRENGTHEN
+
FURTHER AS EXPECTED IN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS HOWEVER, AND DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN
+
TROUGH 24 HOURS AFTER FORMATION. 36 MILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS IN DAMAGE WERE REPORTED
+
FROM THE NON-TROPICAL PREDECESSOR OF AMY ON LOX LAND ISLAND.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  SUMMARY TABLE
 
  SUMMARY TABLE
Line 103: Line 55:
 
                                             KT                      DAMAGE
 
                                             KT                      DAMAGE
 
  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
 
  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
  HU   GRIEL        4510     10-15 JUN    145        40*            NONE
+
  TD   SIXTEEN      4516     22-23 JUL      30          0            NONE
  TS  NITSCHKE      4511     10-11 JUN     40          0            NONE
+
  TS  BRENT        4517     28-30 JUL     35    NONE REPORTED       NONE
TD  TWELVE        4512       11  JUN      30          3*            NONE
+
  SS   CASSANDRA    4518       30 JUL     65         0            NONE
  TS   MIRSCQY       4513      12 JUN     35         0            NONE
+
  TD   NINETEEN     4519     30-31 JUL     30         0             NONE
  TS   LINAS        4514    12-13 JUN     35          7*            NONE
+
TS  AMY          4515     14-15 JUN     35         0         36 000 000
+
 
   
 
   
  MONTHLY TOTAL        6    JUNE 10-15                50*        36 000 000
+
  MONTHLY TOTAL        4      22-31 JUL                  0            NONE
 
   
 
   
*PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
 
 
  DATES ARE BASED ON LOCAL TIME
 
  DATES ARE BASED ON LOCAL TIME
 
  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
   
 
   
  FORECASTERS CALTS/RINDLI/HUNTER/JOHNSON/JARVINEN
+
  FORECASTERS RINDLI/HUNTER

Revision as of 08:11, 20 November 2006

The Liverpool England Meterological Service Hurricane Prediction Centre releases monthly summaries of tropical cyclone activity during the active season (February through December) in The Heartland.
/Past summaries


TCMS TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHLY SUMMARY
JULY 2145
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE, OREAN
3 PM HPT AUG 1 2145
UPDATED 3 AM HPT JUL 23 2145

JULY WAS RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH... WHEN WE SAW A TOTAL OF
FOUR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES IN A LITTLE OVER A WEEK. TWO TROPICAL
DEPRESSIONS... AND TWO NAMED STORMS - ONE SUBTROPICAL - FORMED. THE MONTHLY
EXTRAPOLATED AVERAGE FOR JULY IS FIVE... SO THIS WAS STILL A BELOW-AVERAGE
MONTH.

THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE MONTH WAS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (4516)...
WAS DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 5 PM HPT ON JULY 22 AFTER AN AFLE RECON
PLANE FOUND EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM WAS INITIATED AT 25 KT
BASED ON THE REPORT FROM THE AIRCRAFT. DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ... NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED. A NEARBY TUTT... TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH... IMPARTED
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHEAR ONTO THE CYCLONE... AND THE FINAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
AT 9 AM HPT JULY 23 WHEN RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE SYSTEM HAD
DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE.

A MIDGET SYSTEM WAS SPOTTED NEAR MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM ABOUT A WEEK AFTER
THE DISSIPATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN. HOWEVER... BEFORE ANY NUMBERED
WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED... THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL. SHORTLY AFTER, QUIKSCAT
CONFIRMED A REFORMED CENTRE OF CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST, AND ADVISORIES WERE
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN (4517) AT 9 PM HPT JULY 28. A TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATE WAS ISSUED THREE HOURS LATER TO PUT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND
WARNINGS INTO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST. IT STRENGTHENED
INTO A TROPICAL STORM AT THE NEXT ADVISORY AND WAS NAMED BRENT WITH THE SECOND NAME
FROM THE OLD LISTS. BECAUSE OF ITS MIDGET SIZE... THE FORECAST CALLED FOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY. HOWEVER... IT MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 0817 HPT JULY 29. THE LOW SOON
DECOUPLED FROM CONVECTION... AND A FINAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT JULY 30.
BRENT CAUSED HALF A BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS WORTH OF DAMAGE FROM FLOODING... BUT
NO CASUALTIES WERE REPORTED.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CASSANDRA WAS NAMED ON JULY 30 WHILE EAST OF THE OLD BORDER BETWEEN
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AND THE FORMER UPPER BISWALD. QUIKSCAT INDICATED 40 KT WINDS AND
SHIP REPORTS INDICATED 50-KT WINDS... SO INITIAL INTENSITY WAS 45 KT. THE STORM 
INTENSIFIED INTO A 65-KT SUBTROPICAL STORM... HURRICANE INTENSITY... BUT RETAINED
SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND HENCE WAS NOT UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH
THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCAL POINT OF POST-STORM ANALYSIS. IT LOST TROPICALITY AT 3 PM
HPT JULY 30 AND A FINAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED WITH THE SYSTEM NEVER HAVING AFFECTED LAND.

THE FINAL SYSTEM OF THE MONTH... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN... FORMED FROM THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRENT. IN STRONG SHEAR... IT NEVER REALLY
HAD A CHANCE... AND DISSIPATED WITHIN A DAY OF ITS FORMATION.

SUMMARY TABLE
STR  NAME         NUMBER    DURATION    MAX WIND    DEATHS     LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
                                           KT                       DAMAGE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
TD   SIXTEEN       4516     22-23 JUL      30          0             NONE
TS   BRENT         4517     28-30 JUL      35    NONE REPORTED       NONE
SS   CASSANDRA     4518       30  JUL      65          0             NONE
TD   NINETEEN      4519     30-31 JUL      30          0             NONE

MONTHLY TOTAL        4      22-31 JUL                  0             NONE

DATES ARE BASED ON LOCAL TIME
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FORECASTERS RINDLI/HUNTER