Liverpool England MSHPC cyclone summary
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The Liverpool England Meterological Service Hurricane Prediction Centre releases monthly summaries of tropical cyclone activity during the active season (February through December) in The Heartland.
/Past summaries
TCMS TCWC HPCOR CCA TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHLY SUMMARY JUNE 2145 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE, OREAN 3 AM HPT JUL 1 2145 CORRECTED TROPICALITY OF NITSCHKE SIX TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN JUNE... WELL ABOVE THE MONTHLY EXTRAPOLATED AVERAGE OF FOUR. OF THE SIX... FIVE... NITSCHKE 4511... GRIEL 4510... MIRSCQY 4513... LINAS 4514 AND AMY 4515... WERE NAMED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS THE ONLY UNNAMED STORM OF THE MONTH... BUT STILL BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO AREAS OF KOMPA RU. THE FIRST AND LONGEST-LASTING STORM OF THE MONTH... IMPRESSIVE CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE GRIEL (4510)... FORMED ON JUNE 10 FROM A DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE WEST OF TORQUAY THAT HAD BEEN CONTINUALLY GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT A DAY. AN AFLE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FLEW INTO THE SYSTEM ON JUNE 10 AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 10/2200 HPT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT. COUPLED WITH SPARSE SHIP REPORTS OF 35 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS AT THE TIME THE SYSTEM WAS INITIATED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM FIVE HOURS LATER BUT INSTEAD OF BEING NAMED NITSCHKE - THE NEXT NAME ON THE LIST - A DECISION WAS TAKEN TO NAME IT GRIEL, AS IT WAS DECIDED THAT STORM 4511 HAD REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EARLIER THAN 4510 AND HENCE WOULD TAKE THE NEXT AVAILABLE NAME. AN INTERESTING POINT TO NOTE ABOUT THIS STORM WAS THAT WHILE TROPICAL... IT WAS ALWAYS WITHIN A HALF DEGREE LATITUDE OF 14.0 SOUTH. GRIEL CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST AND STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE AT 11/2100 HPT - BARELY 24 HOURS AFTER FORMING. CONSENSUS DATA-T OF 4.0 FROM HDCW AND UHWF WAS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING GRIEL TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. ITS WESTWARD PATH CONTINUED AND AS IT MOVED OVER WARM WATERS GRIEL CONTINUED ITS INTENSIFICATION, BECOMING A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE JUST SIX HOURS LATER. THIS ADVISORY ... THE 6TH... WAS ALSO THE FIRST WHILE GRIEL WAS A HURRICANE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. AT 12/1500 HPT THE DECISION WAS MADE TO UPGRADE GRIEL TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH 105-KNOT WINDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS PUT IN PLACE AT THIS TIME FOR THE COAST OF VASSFFORCIA. AGAIN... GRIEL'S RAPID STRENGTHENING PHASE BUMPED IT UP ANOTHER CATEGORY AT THE NEXT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT WAS DECIDED TO PUT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO NUEVO. FURTHER WARNINGS AND WATCHES WERE SOON NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN VENERATIO-01 AND NORTHERN ANIMUS-01 COASTS. AT 13/1500 HPT A NEW REGIONAL RECORD FOR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 928 HPA... AND AN AFLE RECON AIRCRAFT WAS SCRAMBLED. A SIGNIFICANT RELOCATION OCCURRED AT 14/0300 HPT WITH THE FINDINGS OF THIS RECON FLIGHT... WHICH PLACED THE CENTRE OF GRIEL WEST OF THE EXPECTED POSITION. IT WAS ALSO AT THIS ADVISORY WHERE THE AFLE PLANE REPORTED 140-KT WINDS FROM A DROPSONDE... AS WELL AS A 907 HPA MINIMUM PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE READING FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS ESTIMATED AT 903 HPA AS THE READING WAS NOT FROM THE CENTRE. HOWEVER, THE 140-KT INTENSITY WAS UTILISED... MAKING GRIEL THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OR CYCLONE THAT THE MSHPC OR EX-MSCPC HAD WARNED ON FOR SIX YEARS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE FOR THIS CYCLONE... ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS... WERE REPORTED AT THE NEXT ADVISORY - 145 KT, 899 HPA - MAKING GRIEL THE STRONGEST CYCLONE EVER ON RECORD IN THE REGION. AT THIS POINT - 14/0900HPT... GRIEL HAD WOBBLED TO THE WNW... FORCING HURRICANE WARNINGS TO GO INTO EFFECT FOR PRUBDABLIA. A RAPID WEAKENING THEN ENSUED AS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE TOOK PLACE AND GRIEL WOBBLED BACK ONTO ITS ORIGINAL PATH... NOW AS A 135-KT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. FURTHER WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL AT 15/1220 HPT AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. IN ALL GRIEL KILLED AT LEAST 35... AND CAUSED AS MUCH AS 500 MILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS IN DAMAGE. THE STORM BECAME EXTRATROPICAL INLAND LATER THAT DAY AND ADVISORIES WERE STOPPED AT 15/1500 HPT. NITSCHKE WAS ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT WARRANTED A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO INITIATE THE SYSTEM. AT THE SAME TIME THAT TD-TEN WAS NUMBERED... TWO SHIPS... SSC ARMADON AND NLES RUSSELL... REPORTED CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 KM OF THE CENTRE OF A DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 700 KM SOUTHWEST OF VICTORY UNION. THE SYSTEM WAS INITIATED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION... ALTHOUGH DISCUSSIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER WAY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS VALUE WILL BE UPPED TO 35 KT IN THE POST-STORM TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT. THE STORM WAS UPGRADED TO A 40-KT SYSTEM AT THE NEXT ADVISORY BASED ON AN IMPROVING SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND SOON COMMENCED ON A LOOP PATH. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY LOST TROPICALITY AND WAS DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL ON JUNE 11. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS A RAIN-BRINGER TO MANY PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL EASTERN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST DISTRICT OF THE HEARTLAND. IT BEGAN AS A DISTURBANCE BUT NEVER GAINED ENOUGH ORGANISATION TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL EARLY JUNE 11. DUE TO ITS GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... WATCHES WERE PUT INTO EFFECT. HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND MEANT THAT THE SYSTEM NEVER STRENGTHENED BEYOND ITS INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT. IT DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW 12 HOURS AFTER THE FIRST ADVISORY. HOWEVER... IT REMAINED A POTENT SYSTEM WITH THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE PICKING UP ON THE SYSTEM AND ISSUING FOUR ADVISORIES. UP TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN WERE REPORTED IN EAST KOMPA RU AND KOMPA RU... AS WELL AS UP TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ON THE OFFSHORE PARQUE DE CORRACION. THREE DEATHS WERE REPORTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM MIRSCQY WAS A WEIRD SYSTEM... BOTH IN NAME AND IN ITS LIFESPAN. THE SHORT- LIVED STORM MOVED SOUTH OFF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, WHICH IS RARE. IT WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT LOST EXTRATROPICALITY DUE TO A WEATHER FRONT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORMED NORTH OF ALTHOS, SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS LATE ON JUNE 12. THE SYSTEM... WHICH HAD BEEN MONITORED FOR ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF... WAS DETERMINED TO BE SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AND WITH ENOUGH ORGANISATION TO WARRANT A DESIGNATION. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WERE SOON ISSUED FOR ALTHOS DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO STORM STRENGTH -- A SHIP... CALL SIGN SNX334X... REPORTED A GUST TO 42 KT NEAR ALTHOS. THE STORM THEN SPED UP A BIT IN FORWARD SPEED AND STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR ALTHOS... MAKING LANDFALL NOT LONG AFTER, KILLING SEVEN. THE FINAL STORM OF THE MONTH FORMED FROM A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS ORIGINALLY SPOTTED SOUTH OF LOX LAND ISLAND. THE SYSTEM MOVED OVER THE ISLAND, CAUSING WIND DAMAGE, BEFORE STRENGTHENING AND ORGANISING IN WARM WATERS NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL. IT WAS DESIGNATED A TROPICAL STORM AT THE INITIAL ADVISORY AND NAMED AMY WITH THE FIRST NAME OFF THE OLD NAMING LISTS. THE SYSTEM FAILED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS EXPECTED IN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS HOWEVER, AND DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH 24 HOURS AFTER FORMATION. SUMMARY TABLE STR NAME NUMBER DURATION MAX WIND DEATHS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND KT DAMAGE --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HU GRIEL 4510 10-15 JUN 145 35* NONE TS NITSCHKE 4511 10-11 JUN 40 0 NONE TD TWELVE 4512 11 JUN 30 3* NONE TS MIRSCQY 4513 12 JUN 35 0 NONE TS LINAS 4514 12-13 JUN 35 7* NONE TS AMY 4515 14-15 JUN 35 0 MINIMAL MONTHLY TOTAL 6 JUNE 10-15 45* MINIMAL *PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE DATES ARE BASED ON LOCAL TIME --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECASTERS CALTS/RINDLI/HUNTER/JOHNSON/JARVINEN