Liverpool England MSHPC cyclone summary
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The Liverpool England Meterological Service Hurricane Prediction Centre releases monthly summaries of tropical cyclone activity during the active season (February through December) in The Heartland.
/Past summaries
TCMS TCWC HPCOR CCC
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHLY SUMMARY
JUNE 2145
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE, OREAN
3 AM HPT JUL 1 2145
UPDATED 3 AM HPT JUL 23 2145
SIX TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN JUNE... WELL ABOVE THE MONTHLY EXTRAPOLATED AVERAGE
OF FOUR. OF THE SIX... FIVE... NITSCHKE 4511... GRIEL 4510... MIRSCQY 4513...
LINAS 4514 AND AMY 4515... WERE NAMED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS THE ONLY
UNNAMED STORM OF THE MONTH... BUT STILL BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO AREAS
OF KOMPA RU.
THE FIRST AND LONGEST-LASTING STORM OF THE MONTH... IMPRESSIVE CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE GRIEL (4510)... FORMED ON JUNE 10 FROM A DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE WEST OF
TORQUAY THAT HAD BEEN CONTINUALLY GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT A DAY. AN AFLE
RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FLEW INTO THE SYSTEM ON JUNE 10 AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED AT 10/2200 HPT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT. COUPLED
WITH SPARSE SHIP REPORTS OF 35 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS AT THE TIME
THE SYSTEM WAS INITIATED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM FIVE HOURS LATER BUT INSTEAD OF BEING NAMED NITSCHKE - THE NEXT NAME ON THE LIST
- A DECISION WAS TAKEN TO NAME IT GRIEL, AS IT WAS DECIDED THAT STORM 4511 HAD REACHED
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EARLIER THAN 4510 AND HENCE WOULD TAKE THE NEXT AVAILABLE NAME.
AN INTERESTING POINT TO NOTE ABOUT THIS STORM WAS THAT WHILE TROPICAL... IT WAS ALWAYS
WITHIN A HALF DEGREE LATITUDE OF 14.0 SOUTH. GRIEL CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST AND
STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE AT 11/2100 HPT - BARELY 24 HOURS AFTER FORMING. CONSENSUS
DATA-T OF 4.0 FROM HDCW AND UHWF WAS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING GRIEL TO A 65-KT HURRICANE.
ITS WESTWARD PATH CONTINUED AND AS IT MOVED OVER WARM WATERS GRIEL CONTINUED ITS
INTENSIFICATION, BECOMING A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE JUST SIX HOURS LATER. THIS ADVISORY
... THE 6TH... WAS ALSO THE FIRST WHILE GRIEL WAS A HURRICANE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
OF A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. AT 12/1500 HPT THE DECISION WAS MADE TO UPGRADE GRIEL TO A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH 105-KNOT WINDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS PUT IN PLACE AT
THIS TIME FOR THE COAST OF VASSFFORCIA. AGAIN... GRIEL'S RAPID STRENGTHENING PHASE BUMPED
IT UP ANOTHER CATEGORY AT THE NEXT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT WAS DECIDED TO PUT A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO NUEVO. FURTHER WARNINGS AND WATCHES WERE SOON NEEDED
FOR THE SOUTHERN VENERATIO-01 AND NORTHERN ANIMUS-01 COASTS. AT 13/1500 HPT A NEW REGIONAL
RECORD FOR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 928 HPA... AND AN AFLE RECON AIRCRAFT
WAS SCRAMBLED. A SIGNIFICANT RELOCATION OCCURRED AT 14/0300 HPT WITH THE FINDINGS OF THIS
RECON FLIGHT... WHICH PLACED THE CENTRE OF GRIEL WEST OF THE EXPECTED POSITION. IT WAS
ALSO AT THIS ADVISORY WHERE THE AFLE PLANE REPORTED 140-KT WINDS FROM A DROPSONDE... AS
WELL AS A 907 HPA MINIMUM PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE READING FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS ESTIMATED
AT 903 HPA AS THE READING WAS NOT FROM THE CENTRE. HOWEVER, THE 140-KT INTENSITY WAS
UTILISED... MAKING GRIEL THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OR CYCLONE THAT THE MSHPC OR
EX-MSCPC HAD WARNED ON FOR SIX YEARS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE FOR THIS CYCLONE... ALONG
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS... WERE REPORTED AT THE NEXT ADVISORY - 145 KT, 899 HPA - MAKING
GRIEL THE STRONGEST CYCLONE EVER ON RECORD IN THE REGION. AT THIS POINT - 14/0900HPT...
GRIEL HAD WOBBLED TO THE WNW... FORCING HURRICANE WARNINGS TO GO INTO EFFECT FOR
PRUBDABLIA. A RAPID WEAKENING THEN ENSUED AS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE TOOK PLACE AND
GRIEL WOBBLED BACK ONTO ITS ORIGINAL PATH... NOW AS A 135-KT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. FURTHER
WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL AT 15/1220 HPT AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. IN ALL GRIEL KILLED
AT LEAST 40... AND CAUSED AS MUCH AS 13 BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS IN DAMAGE. THE STORM
BECAME EXTRATROPICAL INLAND LATER THAT DAY AND ADVISORIES WERE STOPPED AT 15/1500 HPT.
NITSCHKE WAS ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT WARRANTED A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO INITIATE THE SYSTEM. AT
THE SAME TIME THAT TD-TEN WAS NUMBERED... TWO SHIPS... SSC ARMADON AND NLES RUSSELL...
REPORTED CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 KM OF THE CENTRE OF A DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 700 KM SOUTHWEST OF VICTORY UNION. THE SYSTEM WAS INITIATED AS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION... ALTHOUGH DISCUSSIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER WAY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS
VALUE WILL BE UPPED TO 35 KT IN THE POST-STORM TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT. THE STORM WAS
UPGRADED TO A 40-KT SYSTEM AT THE NEXT ADVISORY BASED ON AN IMPROVING SATELLITE
APPEARANCE AND SOON COMMENCED ON A LOOP PATH. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY LOST TROPICALITY AND
WAS DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL ON JUNE 11.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS A RAIN-BRINGER TO MANY PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL EASTERN
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST DISTRICT OF THE HEARTLAND. IT BEGAN AS A DISTURBANCE BUT NEVER
GAINED ENOUGH ORGANISATION TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL EARLY JUNE 11. DUE
TO ITS GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... WATCHES WERE PUT INTO EFFECT. HOWEVER,
INTERACTION WITH LAND MEANT THAT THE SYSTEM NEVER STRENGTHENED BEYOND ITS INITIAL ADVISORY
INTENSITY OF 30 KT. IT DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW 12 HOURS AFTER THE FIRST ADVISORY.
HOWEVER... IT REMAINED A POTENT SYSTEM WITH THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE PICKING UP ON
THE SYSTEM AND ISSUING FOUR ADVISORIES. UP TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN WERE REPORTED IN
EAST KOMPA RU AND KOMPA RU... AS WELL AS UP TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ON THE OFFSHORE PARQUE
DE CORRACION. THREE DEATHS WERE REPORTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM MIRSCQY WAS A WEIRD SYSTEM... BOTH IN NAME AND IN ITS LIFESPAN. THE SHORT-
LIVED STORM MOVED SOUTH OFF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
WHICH IS RARE. IT WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT LOST EXTRATROPICALITY DUE TO A
WEATHER FRONT.
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORMED NORTH OF ALTHOS, SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS LATE ON JUNE 12.
THE SYSTEM... WHICH HAD BEEN MONITORED FOR ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF... WAS DETERMINED TO
BE SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AND WITH ENOUGH ORGANISATION TO WARRANT A DESIGNATION. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WERE SOON ISSUED FOR ALTHOS DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO STORM STRENGTH -- A
SHIP... CALL SIGN SNX334X... REPORTED A GUST TO 42 KT NEAR ALTHOS. THE STORM THEN SPED
UP A BIT IN FORWARD SPEED AND STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR ALTHOS... MAKING
LANDFALL NOT LONG AFTER, KILLING SEVEN.
THE FINAL STORM OF THE MONTH FORMED FROM A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WAS ORIGINALLY SPOTTED SOUTH OF LOX LAND ISLAND. THE SYSTEM MOVED OVER THE ISLAND,
CAUSING WIND DAMAGE, BEFORE STRENGTHENING AND ORGANISING IN WARM WATERS NORTHEAST
OF SCHIMPOL. IT WAS DESIGNATED A TROPICAL STORM AT THE INITIAL ADVISORY AND NAMED
AMY WITH THE FIRST NAME OFF THE OLD NAMING LISTS. THE SYSTEM FAILED TO STRENGTHEN
FURTHER AS EXPECTED IN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS HOWEVER, AND DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH 24 HOURS AFTER FORMATION. 36 MILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS IN DAMAGE WERE REPORTED
FROM THE NON-TROPICAL PREDECESSOR OF AMY ON LOX LAND ISLAND.
SUMMARY TABLE
STR NAME NUMBER DURATION MAX WIND DEATHS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
KT DAMAGE
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HU GRIEL 4510 10-15 JUN 145 40* NONE
TS NITSCHKE 4511 10-11 JUN 40 0 NONE
TD TWELVE 4512 11 JUN 30 3* NONE
TS MIRSCQY 4513 12 JUN 35 0 NONE
TS LINAS 4514 12-13 JUN 35 7* NONE
TS AMY 4515 14-15 JUN 35 0 36 000 000
MONTHLY TOTAL 6 JUNE 10-15 50* 36 000 000
*PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
DATES ARE BASED ON LOCAL TIME
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FORECASTERS CALTS/RINDLI/HUNTER/JOHNSON/JARVINEN
