Difference between revisions of "TD02 (2146)"

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{{Active storm|name=Tropical Storm Mordrel
 
{{Active storm|name=Tropical Storm Mordrel
 
|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
 
|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
−
|time=1500 HPT
+
|time=2100 HPT
 
|date=May 4
 
|date=May 4
 
|year=2146
 
|year=2146
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 4.5°N 25.6°W]<br/>About 1870 km (1170 mi) west of Feronia, Herconia
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 5.1°N 25.1°W]<br/>About 3290 km (2045 mi) south-southwest of Modna Sud, Outer Islands or about 2225 km (1385 miles) west-northwest of Deopolinus, Herconia
 
|winds=65 km/h (40 mph)
 
|winds=65 km/h (40 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|pressure=1000 hPa
 
|pressure=1000 hPa
−
|movement=North-northeast at 20 kt}}
+
|movement=Northeast at 23 kt}}
 
----
 
----
−
  TCAD2 HPCOR 041535
+
  TCAD2 HPCOR 042135
−
  TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 002
+
  TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 003
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
−
  3 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME
+
  9 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 4 PM LOCAL TIME
 
   
 
   
−
  RECONNAISSANCE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... BUT EARLY REPORTS SUGGEST
+
  CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF
−
  THAT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN ATTAINED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
+
  THE CENTRE REVEALING A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. EXPECT THAT
−
  CONTINUE TO BE ON THE UP... T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... AND T3.0 FROM HDCW.
+
THIS SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW TO MODERATE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REGENERATE
−
  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE WITH DEEP
+
DEEP CONVECTION/CDO NEAR OR OVER CENTRE SOON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW
−
  CONVECTION FLARING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS UPPED TO 35 KT... MAKING TD-TWO
+
  LITTLE CHANGE... STILL T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW HAS LOWERED INTENSITY
−
  TROPICAL STORM MORDREL. INITIAL MOTION IS 025/20.
+
  ESTIMATE TO T2.5. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS T-NUMBERS... AS WELL AS A RECONNAISSANCE
 +
  REPORT FROM FIVE HOURS AGO... WILL HOLD MORDREL AT 35 KT OR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
 +
  MOTION OVER PAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED AT 045/17. INITIAL
 +
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/23.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE FIRST NAME ON THE CARITAS LIST... ARIANA... WILL BE ASSIGNED TO THIS SYSTEM
+
  AFTER SOME EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION... THE MSHPC HAS CHOSEN NOT TO NAME THE SYSTEM
−
  IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM.
+
ARIANA YET. THE LOS LEJANOS CRM WILL BE INFORMED AHEAD OF ANY SUCH NAMING. MORDREL
 +
  WILL BE GIVEN THE NAME ARIANA IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY
+
  AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY
−
  TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST... OR ABOUT 1870 KM...
+
  TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.1 WEST... ABOUT 3290 KM... 2045 MILES...
−
  1170 MILES... WEST OF FERONIA, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
+
  SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD IN THE OUTER ISLANDS... OR ABOUT 2225 KM... 1385 MILES...
−
NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT
+
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEOPOLINUS, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR
−
1000 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT NEAR 36 KM/H... 23 MPH.
+
40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 HPA. TROPICAL
 +
STORM MORDREL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 43 KM/H... 27 MPH.
 
   
 
   
−
  MORDREL HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS (STT: D0.5/06HRS) AND IS LIKELY TO
+
  INTENSIFICATION HAS MOMENTARILY RETARDED DUE TO SHEARING OF CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN
−
  CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MOST MODELS NO LONGER INITIATE THE FRONT MENTIONED IN THE FIRST
+
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY AND MORDREL IS EXPECTED TO
−
  DISCUSSION... INSTEAD MOST SHOW HIGH-PRESSURE BUILDING UP TO THE WEST OF MORDREL WHICH
+
  CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE MODELS THAT PREDICTED A HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NW HAVE GOT
−
  COULD PUSH THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED. WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OF PREVIOUS
+
  IT RIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THIS HIGH... AS WELL AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW
−
  FORECAST TRACK FOR NOW... BUT IF MODELS VERIFY AND THE HIGH PUSHES IN... EXPECT WIDE
+
  NEAR 11N 17W... WILL STEER THIS STORM TO THE RIGHT... OR EAST... OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
−
  DEVIATIONS FROM THE TRACK FORECAST.
+
  TRACK... AND MORDREL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
 +
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY. IN THE LONG-TERM... THE MODELS FORECAST SOME SORT
 +
  OF CURVATURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THEN TO THE EAST... WHICH PUTS MORIANTON IN THE FIRING
 +
LINE OF THE STORM.
 
   
 
   
−
  BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE NEEDED YET. MORDREL WILL
+
  BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
−
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN WARM WATERS AIDED BY LOW SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER AS
+
ISLANDS. WHILE MORDREL MAINTAINS GOOD OUTFLOW... SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ALONG THIS FORECAST
−
PER ABOVE... IF THERE ARE WIDE DEVIATIONS FROM THE TRACK FORECAST EMERGENCY WARNINGS
+
  TRACK WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE DOWN. INTENSITY-FORECASTING COMPUTER MODELS NOW TAKE
−
  MAY HAVE TO BE INSTITUTED AT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE. FOLLOWING THE CURRENT TRACK
+
  MORDREL TO ABOUT 45 KT ON THIS TRACK... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW IN BUMPING THE
−
  FORECAST... MORDREL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO JUST SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
+
  FORECAST INTENSITY DOWN TO PEAK AT 45 KT.
−
  WEAKENING... ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TWO RELIABLE MODELS HAVE MORDREL
+
−
PEAKING AS A 75-KT HURRICANE IN AROUND 72-96 HOURS.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA...
+
  COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS...
−
AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS... SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24
+
SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS
−
HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR
+
SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY
−
THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER
+
FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV.
−
ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV.
+
 +
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... THE 90-HOUR FORECAST IS SHOWN DUE TO EXPECTED LANDFALL. DUE
 +
TO THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI... FLOODING/RIVER OVERFLOW MAY POSE A DANGEROUS PROBLEM.
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
−
  INITIAL TIME... 04/1500H
+
  INITIAL TIME... 04/2100H
−
   INITIAL... 04.5 N 25.6 W... 35 KT <!-- 04/2100H... 05.1 N 25.1 W... 35 KT -->
+
   INITIAL... 05.1 N 25.1 W... 35 KT <!-- 05/0300H... 05.8 N 24.4 W... 35 KT -->
−
  05/0300H... 05.9 N 24.7 W... 40 KT <!-- 05/0900H... 06.6 N 24.3 W... 40 KT -->
+
  05/0900H... 06.5 N 23.7 W... 35 KT <!-- 05/1500H... 07.2 N 23.0 W... 35 KT -->
−
  05/1500H... 07.2 N 23.7 W... 40 KT <!-- 05/2100H... 08.0 N 23.0 W... 45 KT -->
+
  05/2100H... 08.0 N 22.8 W... 40 KT <!-- 06/0300H... 08.8 N 22.0 W... 40 KT -->
−
  06/0300H... 08.8 N 22.6 W... 45 KT <!-- 06/0900H... 09.6 N 21.8 W... 45 KT -->
+
  06/0900H... 09.5 N 21.4 W... 40 KT <!-- 06/1500H... 10.2 N 20.8 W... 40 KT -->
−
  06/1500H... 10.3 N 21.1 W... 50 KT <!-- 06/2100H... 11.1 N 20.2 W... 50 KT    
+
  06/2100H... 10.9 N 20.2 W... 40 KT <!-- 07/0300H... 11.7 N 19.8 W... 40 KT
−
  07/0300H... 11.9 N 19.4 W... 55 KT      07/0900H... 12.7 N 18.7 W... 55 KT -->
+
  07/0900H... 12.4 N 19.2 W... 45 KT      07/1500H... 13.0 N 18.5 W... 45 KT -->
−
  07/1500H... 13.4 N 18.0 W... 60 KT <!-- 07/2100H... 13.7 N 17.8 W... 60 KT    
+
  07/2100H... 13.5 N 17.7 W... 45 KT...SOUTH OF ILE GRANDE, OUTER ISLANDS
−
08/0300H... 14.3 N 17.4 W... 60 KT     08/0900H... 14.6 N 17.1 W... 55 KT -->
+
<!--
−
  08/1500H... 15.0 N 16.7 W... 55 KT...EAST OF BARRIER ISLAND
+
08/0300H... 13.9 N 17.0 W... 45 KT     08/0900H... 14.3 N 16.4 W... 45 KT -->
 +
08/1500H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 45 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON
 +
  08/2100H... 14.6 N 15.2 W... 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 04.5 NORTH 25.6 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
+
  REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 05.1 NORTH 25.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
−
  65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NNE AT 20 KT.
+
  65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 KT.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 2135 HPT.
+
  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER RINDLI
+
  FORECASTERS STELIVA/HUNTER
 
----
 
----
−
  TCTW02 FOLN 041535
+
  TCTW02 FOLN 042135
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
−
  ISSUED 1535 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
+
  ISSUED 2135 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
−
  ACTIVE TIME:        1500 21460504
+
  ACTIVE TIME:        2100 21460504
 
  TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
 
  TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
 
  TROP CYC:          MORDREL
 
  TROP CYC:          MORDREL
−
  WARNING NR:        2
+
  WARNING NR:        3
−
  POSITION:          4.5N 25.6W
+
  POSITION:          5.1N 25.1W
−
  ACCURACY:          35NM
+
  ACCURACY:          25NM
−
  MOVEMENT:          NNE 20KT
+
  MOVEMENT:          NE 23KT
 
  CENT PRES:          1000HPA
 
  CENT PRES:          1000HPA
 
  MAX WIND:          35KT
 
  MAX WIND:          35KT
 
  MAX GUST:          50KT
 
  MAX GUST:          50KT
−
  FCST 12HR:          5.9N 24.7W
+
  FCST 12HR:          6.5N 23.7W
−
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G55KT
+
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G50KT
−
  NXT WRN:            2100 21460504=
+
  NXT WRN:            0300 21460504=
 
----
 
----
−
  BPCT2 HPCOR 041600
+
  BPCT2 HPCOR 042200
−
  TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2
+
  TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
 
  BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146
 
  BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146
Line 96: Line 106:
 
  TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA].
 
  TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA].
 
   
 
   
−
  POSITION LE 4 MAI A 15 HEURES HPT: 04.5 NORD / 25.6 OUEST
+
  POSITION LE 4 MAI A 21 HEURES HPT: 05.1 NORD / 25.1 OUEST
−
  (QUATRE DEGRES CINQ NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES SIX OUEST)
+
  (CINQ DEGRES UN NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES UN OUEST)
 
   
 
   
−
  DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 20 KT
+
  DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST À 23 KT
 
   
 
   
 
  VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
 
  VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
 
  DES PROCHAINS JOURS:
 
  DES PROCHAINS JOURS:
 
   
 
   
−
  TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 07.2N 23.7W
+
  TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 08.0N 22.8W
−
  FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (50 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.3N 21.1W
+
  TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.9N 20.2W
−
  FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (60 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.4N 18.0W
+
  TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.5N 17.7W
−
  FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (55 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 15.0N 16.7W
+
  TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.6N 15.2W
 
   
 
   
 
  CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
 
  CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
−
  PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22 HEURES HPT.
+
  PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 04 HEURES HPT.

Revision as of 05:46, 27 May 2007

Latest storm information
Tropical Storm Mordrel
Tropical storm
As of: 2100 HPT May 4, 2146
Location: 5.1°N 25.1°W
About 3290 km (2045 mi) south-southwest of Modna Sud, Outer Islands or about 2225 km (1385 miles) west-northwest of Deopolinus, Herconia
Maximum
winds: 		65 km/h (40 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 1000 hPa
Movement: Northeast at 23 kt
Past advisories and discussions available here 
TCAD2 HPCOR 042135
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 4 PM LOCAL TIME

CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTRE REVEALING A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. EXPECT THAT
THIS SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW TO MODERATE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REGENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION/CDO NEAR OR OVER CENTRE SOON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE... STILL T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW HAS LOWERED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE TO T2.5. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS T-NUMBERS... AS WELL AS A RECONNAISSANCE
REPORT FROM FIVE HOURS AGO... WILL HOLD MORDREL AT 35 KT OR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
MOTION OVER PAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED AT 045/17. INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/23.

AFTER SOME EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION... THE MSHPC HAS CHOSEN NOT TO NAME THE SYSTEM
ARIANA YET. THE LOS LEJANOS CRM WILL BE INFORMED AHEAD OF ANY SUCH NAMING. MORDREL
WILL BE GIVEN THE NAME ARIANA IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY
TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.1 WEST... ABOUT 3290 KM... 2045 MILES...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD IN THE OUTER ISLANDS... OR ABOUT 2225 KM... 1385 MILES...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEOPOLINUS, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR
40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 HPA. TROPICAL
STORM MORDREL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 43 KM/H... 27 MPH.

INTENSIFICATION HAS MOMENTARILY RETARDED DUE TO SHEARING OF CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY AND MORDREL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE MODELS THAT PREDICTED A HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NW HAVE GOT
IT RIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THIS HIGH... AS WELL AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW
NEAR 11N 17W... WILL STEER THIS STORM TO THE RIGHT... OR EAST... OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK... AND MORDREL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY. IN THE LONG-TERM... THE MODELS FORECAST SOME SORT
OF CURVATURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THEN TO THE EAST... WHICH PUTS MORIANTON IN THE FIRING
LINE OF THE STORM.

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
ISLANDS. WHILE MORDREL MAINTAINS GOOD OUTFLOW... SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ALONG THIS FORECAST
TRACK WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE DOWN. INTENSITY-FORECASTING COMPUTER MODELS NOW TAKE
MORDREL TO ABOUT 45 KT ON THIS TRACK... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW IN BUMPING THE
FORECAST INTENSITY DOWN TO PEAK AT 45 KT.

COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS...
SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS
SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV.

IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... THE 90-HOUR FORECAST IS SHOWN DUE TO EXPECTED LANDFALL. DUE
TO THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI... FLOODING/RIVER OVERFLOW MAY POSE A DANGEROUS PROBLEM.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 04/2100H
 INITIAL... 05.1 N 25.1 W... 35 KT 
05/0900H... 06.5 N 23.7 W... 35 KT 
05/2100H... 08.0 N 22.8 W... 40 KT 
06/0900H... 09.5 N 21.4 W... 40 KT 
06/2100H... 10.9 N 20.2 W... 40 KT 
07/2100H... 13.5 N 17.7 W... 45 KT...SOUTH OF ILE GRANDE, OUTER ISLANDS
08/1500H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 45 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON
08/2100H... 14.6 N 15.2 W... 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 05.1 NORTH 25.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 KT.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT.

FORECASTERS STELIVA/HUNTER

TCTW02 FOLN 042135
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 2135 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        2100 21460504
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         3
POSITION:           5.1N 25.1W
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           NE 23KT
CENT PRES:          1000HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR:          6.5N 23.7W
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G50KT
NXT WRN:            0300 21460504=

BPCT2 HPCOR 042200
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA].

POSITION LE 4 MAI A 21 HEURES HPT: 05.1 NORD / 25.1 OUEST
(CINQ DEGRES UN NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES UN OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST À 23 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 08.0N 22.8W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.9N 20.2W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.5N 17.7W
TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.6N 15.2W

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 04 HEURES HPT.
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