Difference between revisions of "TD02 (2146)"

Revision as of 11:05, 7 June 2007

TCAD2 HPCOR 050940 CCA
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 005 CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 4 AM LOCAL TIME

...CORRECTED FOR PARAGRAPHING

TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA)

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND A BETTER-ORGANISED STORM COMPARED TO ITS
SATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND 0200 HPT EARLIER TODAY. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45-KT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS CORRESPONDING TO 36 KT AT SURFACE... AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 999 HPA. SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN MIXED FROM T2.0/30 KTS TO T2.5/35 KTS. BASED ON THE
RECON INFORMATION... INITIAL INTENSITY IS RETAINED AT 35 KTS AND THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SHORT-LIVED. INITIAL 24-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED
AT 020/23.

AT 9 AM HPT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS
FROM THE COAST OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK, HERCONIA TO THE FORMER SETTLEMENT
OF COVASNA, TANTAVIA. 

DUE TO THE FORECASTED CARITAS LAND THREAT... THIS TROPICAL STORM... MORDREL HAS
BEEN ASSIGNED A NAME FROM THE CARITAS LIST CONTROLLED BY THE LOS LEJANOS CRM...
ARIANA.

AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST
OF GRAND ISLAND AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN 36-48 HOURS. EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE
IN ADVANCE OF A WARNING... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA) WAS ESTIMATED BY
RECONNAISSANCE DATA TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 23.7 WEST...
ABOUT 2905 KM... 1815 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD OR ABOUT 1485 KM... 925 MI
WEST-NORTHWEST OF FERONIA, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H
OR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... WITH SOME MINIMAL STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS RECORDED AT 999 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 42 KM/H... 26 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 190 KM... 120 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... ALTHOUGH INTENSITY FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY UPWARD TO NO LONGER REFLECT EXPECTED WEAKENING INTO A
DEPRESSION. SHEAR ALONG THIS TRACK REMAINS 15-20 KTS WHICH SHOULD STUNT ANY
INTENSIFICATION. DRY AIR HAS BACKED OFF BUT IS STILL PRESENT IN THE AREA AND THIS
TOO WILL PLAY A PART IN THE FUTURE OF MORDREL. SHOULD THE STORM FAIL TO ESCAPE THE
SHEAR AND DRY AIR... IT COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HOURS. THE
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT MORDREL WILL OVERCOME THESE CONDITIONS AND MAKE IT INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. ANOTHER
COMPLICATION IN THIS IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1000 KM
OR SO SOUTH OF MODNA SUD... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY ABSORB MORDREL AS IT
GETS CLOSE. HOWEVER... SHOULD THIS LOW MOVE AWAY EARLIER THAN EXPECTED... MORDREL
WILL NOT GET CAUGHT UP IN ITS STEERING CURRENTS AND MIGHT NOT REACH THE COAST
AS QUICKLY AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE MODELS ON MORDREL ARE STILL SPLIT FOR THE MOST PART... DIFFERING BOTH ON TRACK
AND INTENSITY. THE AFLE MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ONE OF THE MORE RELIABLE WITH MORDREL
AND TAKES MORDREL TO 45 KT JUST SHORT OF LANDFALL AT 60 HOURS WEST OF TOZAI... WHICH
BY CONTINUITY WOULD SEEM THE FAIREST ESTIMATE. THE HWS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE MORDREL
IN 36 HOURS... THIS IS PERHAPS THE MODEL TRYING TO SHOW MORDREL FULLY ABSORBED BY
THE LOW NEAR 11.3 N 17.1 W... WHICH IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IF THE LOW REMAINS
STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE THE LOW 
ABSORBING MODREL THEN BECOMING TROPICAL... BUT IT IS WISE TO NOT DISCOUNT ANYTHING
THAT COULD HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS UNCHANGED... BUT INTENSITY CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE AT THE 12 AND 48 HOUR FORECAST POINTS... FROM 30 AND 40 KTS UP TO 35
AND 45 KTS RESPECTIVELY.

SHOULD THE NON-TROPICAL LOW MOVE OFF EARLIER THAN EXPECTED... HUGE ERRORS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED OF THIS FORECAST... AND THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES MIGHT HAVE TO BE RE-ADJUSTED.

THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE HAS NOW PUT A RIVER/LAKE OVERFLOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR TOZAI, MORIANTON... IN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI WILL OVERFLOW
DURING LANDFALL. IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... THE 60-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS INCLUDED DUE
TO LANDFALL.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 05/0900H
 INITIAL... 06.5 N 23.7 W... 35 KT 
05/2100H... 08.0 N 22.8 W... 35 KT 
06/0900H... 09.5 N 21.4 W... 35 KT 
06/2100H... 11.8 N 19.4 W... 40 KT 
07/0900H... 13.0 N 18.0 W... 45 KT 
08/0300H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 40 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON
08/0900H... 15.0 N 14.6 W... 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 
09/0900H...DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 06.5 NORTH 23.7 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
23 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ÎLE GRANDE AND
FOR BARRIER ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS FROM
THE COASTAL EDGE OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK IN HERCONIA TO THE SETTLEMENT OF
COVASNA, FORMER TANTAVIA.

THE NEXT FULL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT. AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 1215 HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW02 FOLN 050935
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 0935 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0900 21460505
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         5
POSITION:           6.5N 23.7W
ACCURACY:           30NM
MOVEMENT:           NNE 23KT
CENT PRES:          999HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR:          8.0N 22.8W
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G50KT
NXT WRN:            1500 21460505=

BPCT2 HPCOR 051000
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 5
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 09 HEURES HPT, 5 MAI 2146

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/ARIANA/4602 [999 HPA].

POSITION LE 5 MAI À 09 HEURES HPT: 06.5 NORD / 23.7 OUEST
(SIX DEGRES CINQ NORD ET VINGT-TROIS DEGRES SEPT OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 23 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 09.5N 21.4W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 13.0N 18.0W
TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.0N 14.6W

UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LA CÔTE DE CARITAS:
PARC NATIONAL DE KELLIMITE VERS COVASNA.

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE GRANDE DU
SUD ET POUR BARRIER ISLAND.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 13 HEURES HPT.