TD02 (2146)

TCAD2 HPCOR 042135
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 4 PM LOCAL TIME

CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTRE REVEALING A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. EXPECT THAT
THIS SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW TO MODERATE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REGENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION/CDO NEAR OR OVER CENTRE SOON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE... STILL T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW HAS LOWERED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE TO T2.5. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS T-NUMBERS... AS WELL AS A RECONNAISSANCE
REPORT FROM FIVE HOURS AGO... WILL HOLD MORDREL AT 35 KT OR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
MOTION OVER PAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED AT 045/17. INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/23.

AFTER SOME EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION... THE MSHPC HAS CHOSEN NOT TO NAME THE SYSTEM
ARIANA YET. THE LOS LEJANOS CRM WILL BE INFORMED AHEAD OF ANY SUCH NAMING. MORDREL
WILL BE GIVEN THE NAME ARIANA IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY
TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.1 WEST... ABOUT 3290 KM... 2045 MILES...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD IN THE OUTER ISLANDS... OR ABOUT 2225 KM... 1385 MILES...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEOPOLINUS, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR
40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 HPA. TROPICAL
STORM MORDREL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 43 KM/H... 27 MPH.

INTENSIFICATION HAS MOMENTARILY RETARDED DUE TO SHEARING OF CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY AND MORDREL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE MODELS THAT PREDICTED A HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NW HAVE GOT
IT RIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THIS HIGH... AS WELL AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW
NEAR 11N 17W... WILL STEER THIS STORM TO THE RIGHT... OR EAST... OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK... AND MORDREL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY. IN THE LONG-TERM... THE MODELS FORECAST SOME SORT
OF CURVATURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THEN TO THE EAST... WHICH PUTS MORIANTON IN THE FIRING
LINE OF THE STORM.

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
ISLANDS. WHILE MORDREL MAINTAINS GOOD OUTFLOW... SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ALONG THIS FORECAST
TRACK WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE DOWN. INTENSITY-FORECASTING COMPUTER MODELS NOW TAKE
MORDREL TO ABOUT 45 KT ON THIS TRACK... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW IN BUMPING THE
FORECAST INTENSITY DOWN TO PEAK AT 45 KT.

COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS...
SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS
SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV.

IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... THE 90-HOUR FORECAST IS SHOWN DUE TO EXPECTED LANDFALL. DUE
TO THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI... FLOODING/RIVER OVERFLOW MAY POSE A DANGEROUS PROBLEM.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 04/2100H
 INITIAL... 05.1 N 25.1 W... 35 KT 
05/0900H... 06.5 N 23.7 W... 35 KT 
05/2100H... 08.0 N 22.8 W... 40 KT 
06/0900H... 09.5 N 21.4 W... 40 KT 
06/2100H... 10.9 N 20.2 W... 40 KT 
07/2100H... 13.5 N 17.7 W... 45 KT...SOUTH OF ILE GRANDE, OUTER ISLANDS
08/1500H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 45 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON
08/2100H... 14.6 N 15.2 W... 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 05.1 NORTH 25.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 KT.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT.

FORECASTERS STELIVA/HUNTER

TCTW02 FOLN 042135
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 2135 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        2100 21460504
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         3
POSITION:           5.1N 25.1W
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           NE 23KT
CENT PRES:          1000HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR:          6.5N 23.7W
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G50KT
NXT WRN:            0300 21460504=

BPCT2 HPCOR 042200
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA].

POSITION LE 4 MAI A 21 HEURES HPT: 05.1 NORD / 25.1 OUEST
(CINQ DEGRES UN NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES UN OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST À 23 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 08.0N 22.8W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.9N 20.2W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.5N 17.7W
TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.6N 15.2W

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 04 HEURES HPT.