TD02 (2146)
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Tropical Storm Mordrel | |
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Tropical storm | |
As of: | 0300 HPT May 5, 2146 |
Location: | 5.9°N 24.2°W About 3115 km (1935 mi) south-southwest of Modna Sud, Outer Islands or about 2065 km (1285 miles) west-northwest of Deopolinus, Herconia |
Maximum winds: |
65 km/h (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
Pressure: | 1002 hPa |
Movement: | Northeast at 23 kt |
Past advisories and discussions available here |
TCAD2 HPCOR 042135 TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 004 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 3 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 10 PM MAY 4 LOCAL TIME SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MORDREL HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS IS DUE TO DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM... WHICH HAD ALREADY BEEN SHEARED BADLY. HOWEVER... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL RANGE IN THE 2S... T2.0/30 KTS FROM AFLE AND T2.5/35 KTS FROM UHWF AND HDCW. THE 1:45 AM HPT WIND SCATTEROMETER PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE IN THE GAPS IN BOTH ITS ASCENDING AND DESCENDING PASSES SO THERE ARE NO SOLID WINDSPEED DATA AVAILABLE. BASED ON CONTINUITY AM KEEPING MORDREL AT 35 KTS AND A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ALTHOUGH IN REALITY MORDREL COULD BE A DEPRESSION. AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN DESPATCHED FROM AD'IHAN IN THE OUTER ISLANDS TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD REPORT BACK ITS FIRST READINGS BY MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME... 5 AM HPT. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 015/25. AT 3 AM HPT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ÎLE GRANDE OF THE OUTER ISLANDS... THE COAST SOUTH OF LATITUDE 15 NORTH... AND FOR THE WHOLE OF BARRIER ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY SOON BE PUT INTO PLACE FOR PARTS OF THE HERCONIAN AND MORIANTON COASTLINES. IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN 36-48 HOURS. EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE IN ADVANCE OF A WARNING. AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 24.2 WEST... ABOUT 3115 KM/1935 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD OR ABOUT 2065 KM/1285 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEOPOLINUS, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 42 KM/H... 26 MPH.
SHEAR ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 15-20 KTS AND THIS COULD TAKE A FURTHER TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. DRY AIR CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM COULD WELL SEE MORDREL ON THE FAST-TRACK TO REMNANT LOW-VILLE... BUT THIS IS AN 'IF'. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MORDREL HAS WARMED TO ABOUT -60 C. ASSUMING THAT MORDREL CAN OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR... MORDREL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN A MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TREK ON A GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION. THE COMPUTER MODELS DEPICT A STRENGTHENING OF THE NON-TROPICAL LOW NEAR 11N 17W ABOUT 1070 KM SOUTH OF MODNA SUD. THIS NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO START PULLING AWAY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHICH COULD DRASTICALLY INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED OF MORDREL. INTENSITY MODELS ARE SPLIT... MOST OF THE MAJOR MODELS DO FINE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE MODEL DISSIPATES MORDREL WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS SITUATION IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS BUT IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY. THE OTHER MODELS PEAK MORDREL AT 40-50 KT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW WEST OF NORTHERN HERCONIA... WILL CALL FOR A NEW PEAK OF 40 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS INITIAL WEAKENING DUE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WEST OF TOZAI, MORIANTON IN 72 HOURS OR THEREABOUTS. THE ALTERNATE SCENARIOS INCLUDE MORDREL DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS... OR BEING FULLY ABSORBED BY THE NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. WHILE BOTH ARE STILL DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES AM DISCOUNTING THEM BASED ON CONTINUITY OF FORECAST TRACK. BASED ON THIS NEW FORECAST... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF GRAND ISLAND AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION IN THE FORECAST THAT MORDREL WILL CATCH ON TO THE NON-TROPICAL LOW... WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE ISLANDS WHILE DRAGGING MORDREL ALONG. HEAVY SURF SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN THE OUTER ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TIDES ON THE WESTERN MOUTH... FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNTIL LANDFALL. THE FORECAST LANDFALL POINT... TOZAI, MORIANTON... MIGHT BE IN FOR A ROUGH TIME IF THE TOZAI LAKE OVERFLOWS DURING LANDFALL. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 05/0300H INITIAL... 05.9 N 24.2 W... 35 KT 05/1500H... 07.2 N 23.0 W... 30 KT 06/0300H... 08.8 N 22.0 W... 35 KT 06/1500H... 10.2 N 20.8 W... 35 KT...PARTIAL ABSORPTION BY NON-TROPICAL LOW 07/0300H... 12.4 N 18.7 W... 40 KT 08/0300H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 40 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON 09/0300H...DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 05.9 NORTH 24.2 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH- NORTHEAST AT 25 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ÎLE GRANDE AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT. FORECASTER STELIVA
TCTW02 FOLN 050335 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 0335 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 0300 21460505 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: MORDREL WARNING NR: 4 POSITION: 5.9N 24.2W ACCURACY: 45NM MOVEMENT: NNE 25KT CENT PRES: 1002HPA MAX WIND: 35KT MAX GUST: 45KT FCST 12HR: 7.2N 23.0W FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT NXT WRN: 0900 21460505=
BPCT2 HPCOR 050400 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 4 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 5 MAI 2146 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1002 HPA]. POSITION LE 5 MAI A 21 HEURES HPT: 05.9 NORD / 24.2 OUEST (CINQ DEGRES NEUF NORD ET VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES DEUX OUEST) DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 25 KT VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS: TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 08.8N 22.0W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 12.4N 18.7W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 14.4N 15.7W UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE GRANDE DU SUD ET POUR BARRIER ISLAND. CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 10 HEURES HPT.