Difference between revisions of "TD02 (2146)/Past"

Revision as of 06:32, 5 June 2007

Advisory 1

TCAD2 HPCOR 040925
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (4602) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 AM HPT MAY 4 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME

THE 7 A.M. RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SENT BACK INFORMATION CONFIRMING THE EXISTENCE
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA. CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY
STRONG AT AROUND -60 CELSIUS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
T2.0 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW IS GOING AGGRESSIVE AT T2.5/35 KT. BASED ON
RECON INFORMATION... SETTING INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM TO 30 KT... MAKING
THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/15.

AT 9:00 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.9 WEST... OR ABOUT 1615 KM...
1010 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF FORMER EONWË, NEVERSHADOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 1003 HPA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT NEAR 28 KM/H... 17 MPH
... BUT THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW... ONLY NEAR 10 KT... AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FUTHER. AN
INCOMING FRONT FROM THE SW WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SYSTEM FORWARD... ALTHOUGH THE LOW
COULD END UP BEING ABSORBED INTO THE FRONT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT.

ALL MODELS CALL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO 30 DEG CELSIUS WATERS...
AND THE MSHPC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN ABOUT 48 HOURS FOR CERTAIN AREAS. A TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST
WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST... THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE IMPACTED
LATE IN THE FORECAST BY A WEAKENING SYSTEM... LIKELY STILL AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE FIRST NAME ON THE NAME LIST THIS SEASON IS 'MORDREL' SUBMITTED BY BOWIEKNIFE.
CONSULTATIONS WITH THE LOS PAISES LEJANOS CENTRO REGIO DEL METEOROLOGIA WILL BE HELD IF
NECESSARY TO DECIDE IF THE STORM SHOULD BE GIVEN A LOCAL NAME OFF THE CARITAS LIST. THE
FIRST NAME ON THE LOCAL CARITAS LIST IS 'ARIANA'. 

GRAPHICAL FORECAST AIDS ON THE SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IF/WHEN TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE PUT INTO PLACE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 04/0900H
 INITIAL... 03.9 N 25.9 W... 30 KT 
04/2100H... 04.9 N 25.3 W... 30 KT 
05/0900H... 06.4 N 24.5 W... 35 KT 
05/2100H... 07.8 N 23.2 W... 35 KT 
06/0900H... 09.4 N 22.0 W... 40 KT 
07/0900H... 12.5 N 18.9 W... 45 KT 
08/0900H... 14.5 N 17.2 W... 40 KT... NEAR MODNA SUD

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 03.9 NORTH 25.9 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NNE AT 15 KT.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 1535 HPT.

FORECASTER CALTS

BPCT2 HPCOR 041000
DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 2 (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 09 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146

DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 2/4602 [1003 HPA].

POSITION LE 4 MAI A 09 HEURES HPT: 03.9 NORD / 25.9 OUEST
(TROIS DEGRES NEUF NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES NEUF OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 15 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 06.4N 24.5W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 09.4N 22.0W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 12.5N 18.9W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.5N 17.2W

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 16 HEURES HPT.

Advisory 2

TCAD2 HPCOR 041535
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME

RECONNAISSANCE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... BUT EARLY REPORTS SUGGEST
THAT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN ATTAINED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE UP... T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... AND T3.0 FROM HDCW.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE WITH DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS UPPED TO 35 KT... MAKING TD-TWO
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL. INITIAL MOTION IS 025/20.

THE FIRST NAME ON THE CARITAS LIST... ARIANA... WILL BE ASSIGNED TO THIS SYSTEM
IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY
TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST... OR ABOUT 1870 KM...
1170 MILES... WEST OF FERONIA, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT
1000 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT NEAR 36 KM/H... 23 MPH.

MORDREL HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS (STT: D0.5/06HRS) AND IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MOST MODELS NO LONGER INITIATE THE FRONT MENTIONED IN THE FIRST
DISCUSSION... INSTEAD MOST SHOW HIGH-PRESSURE BUILDING UP TO THE WEST OF MORDREL WHICH
COULD PUSH THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED. WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK FOR NOW... BUT IF MODELS VERIFY AND THE HIGH PUSHES IN... EXPECT WIDE
DEVIATIONS FROM THE TRACK FORECAST.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE NEEDED YET. MORDREL WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN WARM WATERS AIDED BY LOW SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER AS
PER ABOVE... IF THERE ARE WIDE DEVIATIONS FROM THE TRACK FORECAST EMERGENCY WARNINGS
MAY HAVE TO BE INSTITUTED AT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE. FOLLOWING THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST... MORDREL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO JUST SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
WEAKENING... ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TWO RELIABLE MODELS HAVE MORDREL
PEAKING AS A 75-KT HURRICANE IN AROUND 72-96 HOURS.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA...
AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS... SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR
THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER
ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 04/1500H
 INITIAL... 04.5 N 25.6 W... 35 KT 
05/0300H... 05.9 N 24.7 W... 40 KT 
05/1500H... 07.2 N 23.7 W... 40 KT 
06/0300H... 08.8 N 22.6 W... 45 KT 
06/1500H... 10.3 N 21.1 W... 50 KT 
07/1500H... 13.4 N 18.0 W... 60 KT 
08/1500H... 15.0 N 16.7 W... 55 KT...EAST OF BARRIER ISLAND

REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 04.5 NORTH 25.6 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NNE AT 20 KT.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 2135 HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW02 FOLN 041535
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 1535 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        1500 21460504
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         2
POSITION:           4.5N 25.6W
ACCURACY:           35NM
MOVEMENT:           NNE 20KT
CENT PRES:          1000HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR:          5.9N 24.7W
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G55KT
NXT WRN:            2100 21460504=

BPCT2 HPCOR 041600
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA].

POSITION LE 4 MAI A 15 HEURES HPT: 04.5 NORD / 25.6 OUEST
(QUATRE DEGRES CINQ NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES SIX OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 20 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 07.2N 23.7W
FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (50 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.3N 21.1W
FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (60 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.4N 18.0W
FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (55 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 15.0N 16.7W

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22 HEURES HPT.

Advisory 3

TCAD2 HPCOR 042135
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 4 PM LOCAL TIME

CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTRE REVEALING A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. EXPECT THAT
THIS SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW TO MODERATE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REGENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION/CDO NEAR OR OVER CENTRE SOON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE... STILL T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW HAS LOWERED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE TO T2.5. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS T-NUMBERS... AS WELL AS A RECONNAISSANCE
REPORT FROM FIVE HOURS AGO... WILL HOLD MORDREL AT 35 KT OR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
MOTION OVER PAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED AT 045/17. INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/23.

AFTER SOME EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION... THE MSHPC HAS CHOSEN NOT TO NAME THE SYSTEM
ARIANA YET. THE LOS LEJANOS CRM WILL BE INFORMED AHEAD OF ANY SUCH NAMING. MORDREL
WILL BE GIVEN THE NAME ARIANA IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY
TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.1 WEST... ABOUT 3290 KM... 2045 MILES...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD IN THE OUTER ISLANDS... OR ABOUT 2225 KM... 1385 MILES...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEOPOLINUS, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR
40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 HPA. TROPICAL
STORM MORDREL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 43 KM/H... 27 MPH.

INTENSIFICATION HAS MOMENTARILY RETARDED DUE TO SHEARING OF CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY AND MORDREL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE MODELS THAT PREDICTED A HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NW HAVE GOT
IT RIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THIS HIGH... AS WELL AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW
NEAR 11N 17W... WILL STEER THIS STORM TO THE RIGHT... OR EAST... OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK... AND MORDREL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY. IN THE LONG-TERM... THE MODELS FORECAST SOME SORT
OF CURVATURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THEN TO THE EAST... WHICH PUTS MORIANTON IN THE FIRING
LINE OF THE STORM.

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
ISLANDS. WHILE MORDREL MAINTAINS GOOD OUTFLOW... SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ALONG THIS FORECAST
TRACK WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE DOWN. INTENSITY-FORECASTING COMPUTER MODELS NOW TAKE
MORDREL TO ABOUT 45 KT ON THIS TRACK... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW IN BUMPING THE
FORECAST INTENSITY DOWN TO PEAK AT 45 KT.

COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS...
SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS
SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV.

IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... THE 90-HOUR FORECAST IS SHOWN DUE TO EXPECTED LANDFALL. DUE
TO THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI... FLOODING/RIVER OVERFLOW MAY POSE A DANGEROUS PROBLEM.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 04/2100H
 INITIAL... 05.1 N 25.1 W... 35 KT 
05/0900H... 06.5 N 23.7 W... 35 KT 
05/2100H... 08.0 N 22.8 W... 40 KT 
06/0900H... 09.5 N 21.4 W... 40 KT 
06/2100H... 10.9 N 20.2 W... 40 KT 
07/2100H... 13.5 N 17.7 W... 45 KT...SOUTH OF ILE GRANDE, OUTER ISLANDS
08/1500H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 45 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON
08/2100H... 14.6 N 15.2 W... 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 05.1 NORTH 25.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 KT.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT.

FORECASTERS STELIVA/HUNTER

TCTW02 FOLN 042135 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING CORRECTED
ISSUED 2135 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
CORRECTION:         NEXT WARNING TIME
ACTIVE TIME:        2100 21460504
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         3
POSITION:           5.1N 25.1W
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           NE 23KT
CENT PRES:          1000HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR:          6.5N 23.7W
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G50KT
NXT WRN:            0300 21460505=

BPCT2 HPCOR 042200
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA].

POSITION LE 4 MAI A 21 HEURES HPT: 05.1 NORD / 25.1 OUEST
(CINQ DEGRES UN NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES UN OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST À 23 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 08.0N 22.8W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.9N 20.2W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.5N 17.7W
TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.6N 15.2W

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 04 HEURES HPT.