Difference between revisions of "TD02 (2146)/Past"

Revision as of 11:49, 20 June 2007

Advisory 1

TCAD2 HPCOR 040925
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (4602) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 AM HPT MAY 4 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME

THE 7 A.M. RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SENT BACK INFORMATION CONFIRMING THE EXISTENCE
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA. CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY
STRONG AT AROUND -60 CELSIUS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
T2.0 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW IS GOING AGGRESSIVE AT T2.5/35 KT. BASED ON
RECON INFORMATION... SETTING INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM TO 30 KT... MAKING
THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/15.

AT 9:00 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.9 WEST... OR ABOUT 1615 KM...
1010 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF FORMER EONWË, NEVERSHADOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 1003 HPA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT NEAR 28 KM/H... 17 MPH
... BUT THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW... ONLY NEAR 10 KT... AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FUTHER. AN
INCOMING FRONT FROM THE SW WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SYSTEM FORWARD... ALTHOUGH THE LOW
COULD END UP BEING ABSORBED INTO THE FRONT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT.

ALL MODELS CALL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO 30 DEG CELSIUS WATERS...
AND THE MSHPC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN ABOUT 48 HOURS FOR CERTAIN AREAS. A TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST
WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST... THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE IMPACTED
LATE IN THE FORECAST BY A WEAKENING SYSTEM... LIKELY STILL AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE FIRST NAME ON THE NAME LIST THIS SEASON IS 'MORDREL' SUBMITTED BY BOWIEKNIFE.
CONSULTATIONS WITH THE LOS PAISES LEJANOS CENTRO REGIO DEL METEOROLOGIA WILL BE HELD IF
NECESSARY TO DECIDE IF THE STORM SHOULD BE GIVEN A LOCAL NAME OFF THE CARITAS LIST. THE
FIRST NAME ON THE LOCAL CARITAS LIST IS 'ARIANA'. 

GRAPHICAL FORECAST AIDS ON THE SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IF/WHEN TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE PUT INTO PLACE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 04/0900H
 INITIAL... 03.9 N 25.9 W... 30 KT 
04/2100H... 04.9 N 25.3 W... 30 KT 
05/0900H... 06.4 N 24.5 W... 35 KT 
05/2100H... 07.8 N 23.2 W... 35 KT 
06/0900H... 09.4 N 22.0 W... 40 KT 
07/0900H... 12.5 N 18.9 W... 45 KT 
08/0900H... 14.5 N 17.2 W... 40 KT... NEAR MODNA SUD

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 03.9 NORTH 25.9 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NNE AT 15 KT.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 1535 HPT.

FORECASTER CALTS

BPCT2 HPCOR 041000
DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 2 (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 09 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146

DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 2/4602 [1003 HPA].

POSITION LE 4 MAI A 09 HEURES HPT: 03.9 NORD / 25.9 OUEST
(TROIS DEGRES NEUF NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES NEUF OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 15 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 06.4N 24.5W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 09.4N 22.0W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 12.5N 18.9W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.5N 17.2W

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 16 HEURES HPT.

Advisory 2

TCAD2 HPCOR 041535
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME

RECONNAISSANCE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... BUT EARLY REPORTS SUGGEST
THAT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN ATTAINED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE UP... T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... AND T3.0 FROM HDCW.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE WITH DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS UPPED TO 35 KT... MAKING TD-TWO
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL. INITIAL MOTION IS 025/20.

THE FIRST NAME ON THE CARITAS LIST... ARIANA... WILL BE ASSIGNED TO THIS SYSTEM
IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY
TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST... OR ABOUT 1870 KM...
1170 MILES... WEST OF FERONIA, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT
1000 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT NEAR 36 KM/H... 23 MPH.

MORDREL HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS (STT: D0.5/06HRS) AND IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MOST MODELS NO LONGER INITIATE THE FRONT MENTIONED IN THE FIRST
DISCUSSION... INSTEAD MOST SHOW HIGH-PRESSURE BUILDING UP TO THE WEST OF MORDREL WHICH
COULD PUSH THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED. WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK FOR NOW... BUT IF MODELS VERIFY AND THE HIGH PUSHES IN... EXPECT WIDE
DEVIATIONS FROM THE TRACK FORECAST.

BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE NEEDED YET. MORDREL WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN WARM WATERS AIDED BY LOW SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER AS
PER ABOVE... IF THERE ARE WIDE DEVIATIONS FROM THE TRACK FORECAST EMERGENCY WARNINGS
MAY HAVE TO BE INSTITUTED AT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE. FOLLOWING THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST... MORDREL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO JUST SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
WEAKENING... ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TWO RELIABLE MODELS HAVE MORDREL
PEAKING AS A 75-KT HURRICANE IN AROUND 72-96 HOURS.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA...
AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS... SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR
THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER
ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 04/1500H
 INITIAL... 04.5 N 25.6 W... 35 KT 
05/0300H... 05.9 N 24.7 W... 40 KT 
05/1500H... 07.2 N 23.7 W... 40 KT 
06/0300H... 08.8 N 22.6 W... 45 KT 
06/1500H... 10.3 N 21.1 W... 50 KT 
07/1500H... 13.4 N 18.0 W... 60 KT 
08/1500H... 15.0 N 16.7 W... 55 KT...EAST OF BARRIER ISLAND

REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 04.5 NORTH 25.6 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NNE AT 20 KT.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 2135 HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW02 FOLN 041535
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 1535 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        1500 21460504
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         2
POSITION:           4.5N 25.6W
ACCURACY:           35NM
MOVEMENT:           NNE 20KT
CENT PRES:          1000HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR:          5.9N 24.7W
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G55KT
NXT WRN:            2100 21460504=

BPCT2 HPCOR 041600
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA].

POSITION LE 4 MAI A 15 HEURES HPT: 04.5 NORD / 25.6 OUEST
(QUATRE DEGRES CINQ NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES SIX OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 20 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 07.2N 23.7W
FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (50 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.3N 21.1W
FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (60 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.4N 18.0W
FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (55 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 15.0N 16.7W

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22 HEURES HPT.

Advisory 3

TCAD2 HPCOR 042135
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 4 PM LOCAL TIME

CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTRE REVEALING A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. EXPECT THAT
THIS SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW TO MODERATE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REGENERATE
DEEP CONVECTION/CDO NEAR OR OVER CENTRE SOON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE... STILL T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW HAS LOWERED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE TO T2.5. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS T-NUMBERS... AS WELL AS A RECONNAISSANCE
REPORT FROM FIVE HOURS AGO... WILL HOLD MORDREL AT 35 KT OR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
MOTION OVER PAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED AT 045/17. INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/23.

AFTER SOME EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION... THE MSHPC HAS CHOSEN NOT TO NAME THE SYSTEM
ARIANA YET. THE LOS LEJANOS CRM WILL BE INFORMED AHEAD OF ANY SUCH NAMING. MORDREL
WILL BE GIVEN THE NAME ARIANA IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY
TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.1 WEST... ABOUT 3290 KM... 2045 MILES...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD IN THE OUTER ISLANDS... OR ABOUT 2225 KM... 1385 MILES...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEOPOLINUS, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR
40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 HPA. TROPICAL
STORM MORDREL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 43 KM/H... 27 MPH.

INTENSIFICATION HAS MOMENTARILY RETARDED DUE TO SHEARING OF CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY AND MORDREL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE MODELS THAT PREDICTED A HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NW HAVE GOT
IT RIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THIS HIGH... AS WELL AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW
NEAR 11N 17W... WILL STEER THIS STORM TO THE RIGHT... OR EAST... OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK... AND MORDREL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY. IN THE LONG-TERM... THE MODELS FORECAST SOME SORT
OF CURVATURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THEN TO THE EAST... WHICH PUTS MORIANTON IN THE FIRING
LINE OF THE STORM.

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER
ISLANDS. WHILE MORDREL MAINTAINS GOOD OUTFLOW... SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ALONG THIS FORECAST
TRACK WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE DOWN. INTENSITY-FORECASTING COMPUTER MODELS NOW TAKE
MORDREL TO ABOUT 45 KT ON THIS TRACK... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW IN BUMPING THE
FORECAST INTENSITY DOWN TO PEAK AT 45 KT.

COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS...
SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS
SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV.

IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... THE 90-HOUR FORECAST IS SHOWN DUE TO EXPECTED LANDFALL. DUE
TO THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI... FLOODING/RIVER OVERFLOW MAY POSE A DANGEROUS PROBLEM.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 04/2100H
 INITIAL... 05.1 N 25.1 W... 35 KT 
05/0900H... 06.5 N 23.7 W... 35 KT 
05/2100H... 08.0 N 22.8 W... 40 KT 
06/0900H... 09.5 N 21.4 W... 40 KT 
06/2100H... 10.9 N 20.2 W... 40 KT 
07/2100H... 13.5 N 17.7 W... 45 KT...SOUTH OF ILE GRANDE, OUTER ISLANDS
08/1500H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 45 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON
08/2100H... 14.6 N 15.2 W... 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 05.1 NORTH 25.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 KT.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT.

FORECASTERS STELIVA/HUNTER

TCTW02 FOLN 042135 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING CORRECTED
ISSUED 2135 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
CORRECTION:         NEXT WARNING TIME
ACTIVE TIME:        2100 21460504
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         3
POSITION:           5.1N 25.1W
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           NE 23KT
CENT PRES:          1000HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR:          6.5N 23.7W
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G50KT
NXT WRN:            0300 21460505=

BPCT2 HPCOR 042200
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 21 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA].

POSITION LE 4 MAI A 21 HEURES HPT: 05.1 NORD / 25.1 OUEST
(CINQ DEGRES UN NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES UN OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST À 23 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 08.0N 22.8W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.9N 20.2W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.5N 17.7W
TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.6N 15.2W

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 04 HEURES HPT.

Advisory 4

TCAD2 HPCOR 050335
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 10 PM MAY 4 LOCAL TIME

SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MORDREL HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS IS DUE
TO DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM... WHICH HAD ALREADY BEEN
SHEARED BADLY. HOWEVER... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL RANGE IN THE 2S...
T2.0/30 KTS FROM AFLE AND T2.5/35 KTS FROM UHWF AND HDCW. THE 1:45 AM HPT
WIND SCATTEROMETER PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE IN THE GAPS IN BOTH ITS ASCENDING
AND DESCENDING PASSES SO THERE ARE NO SOLID WINDSPEED DATA AVAILABLE. BASED ON
CONTINUITY AM KEEPING MORDREL AT 35 KTS AND A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ALTHOUGH
IN REALITY MORDREL COULD BE A DEPRESSION. AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN
DESPATCHED FROM AD'IHAN IN THE OUTER ISLANDS TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD
REPORT BACK ITS FIRST READINGS BY MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME... 5 AM HPT. INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED AT 015/25.

AT 3 AM HPT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ÎLE GRANDE
OF THE OUTER ISLANDS... THE COAST SOUTH OF LATITUDE 15 NORTH... AND FOR THE WHOLE
OF BARRIER ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY SOON BE PUT INTO PLACE FOR PARTS OF
THE HERCONIAN AND MORIANTON COASTLINES. IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN 36-48 HOURS.
EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE IN ADVANCE OF A WARNING.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 5.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 24.2 WEST... ABOUT 3115 KM/1935 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD OR ABOUT 2065 KM/1285 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEOPOLINUS,
HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 46 KM/H... 29 MPH.

SHEAR ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 15-20 KTS AND THIS
COULD TAKE A FURTHER TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. DRY AIR CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM
COULD WELL SEE MORDREL ON THE FAST-TRACK TO REMNANT LOW-VILLE... BUT THIS IS AN
'IF'. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MORDREL HAS WARMED TO ABOUT -60 C. ASSUMING THAT
MORDREL CAN OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR... MORDREL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY IN A MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TREK ON A GENERALLY
NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION. THE COMPUTER MODELS DEPICT A STRENGTHENING OF
THE NON-TROPICAL LOW NEAR 11N 17W ABOUT 1070 KM SOUTH OF MODNA SUD. THIS NON-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO START PULLING AWAY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHICH COULD DRASTICALLY
INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED OF MORDREL.

INTENSITY MODELS ARE SPLIT... MOST OF THE MAJOR MODELS DO FINE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE
HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE MODEL DISSIPATES MORDREL WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS SITUATION IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS BUT IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY. THE OTHER MODELS
PEAK MORDREL AT 40-50 KT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH TAKES
INTO ACCOUNT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW WEST OF NORTHERN HERCONIA... WILL CALL FOR A NEW PEAK
OF 40 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS INITIAL WEAKENING DUE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WEST OF TOZAI, MORIANTON IN 72 HOURS OR THEREABOUTS.

THE ALTERNATE SCENARIOS INCLUDE MORDREL DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS...
OR BEING FULLY ABSORBED BY THE NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. WHILE BOTH ARE STILL
DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES AM DISCOUNTING THEM BASED ON CONTINUITY OF FORECAST TRACK.

BASED ON THIS NEW FORECAST... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
COASTS OF GRAND ISLAND AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION
IN THE FORECAST THAT MORDREL WILL CATCH ON TO THE NON-TROPICAL LOW... WHICH SHOULD BRING
HIGH WINDS TO THE ISLANDS WHILE DRAGGING MORDREL ALONG. HEAVY SURF SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR
IN THE OUTER ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS
WELL AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TIDES ON THE WESTERN MOUTH... FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNTIL
LANDFALL.

THE FORECAST LANDFALL POINT... TOZAI, MORIANTON... MIGHT BE IN FOR A ROUGH TIME IF
THE TOZAI LAKE OVERFLOWS DURING LANDFALL.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 05/0300H
 INITIAL... 05.9 N 24.2 W... 35 KT 
05/1500H... 07.2 N 23.0 W... 30 KT 
06/0300H... 08.8 N 22.0 W... 35 KT 
06/1500H... 10.2 N 20.8 W... 35 KT...PARTIAL ABSORPTION BY NON-TROPICAL LOW 
07/0300H... 12.4 N 18.7 W... 40 KT 
08/0300H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 40 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON 
09/0300H...DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 05.9 NORTH 24.2 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH- NORTHEAST AT
25 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ÎLE GRANDE AND
FOR BARRIER ISLAND.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT.

FORECASTER STELIVA

TCTW02 FOLN 050335
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 0335 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0300 21460505
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         4
POSITION:           5.9N 24.2W
ACCURACY:           45NM
MOVEMENT:           NNE 25KT
CENT PRES:          1002HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           45KT
FCST 12HR:          7.2N 23.0W
FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT G40KT
NXT WRN:            0900 21460505=

BPCT2 HPCOR 050400
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 4
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 5 MAI 2146

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1002 HPA].

POSITION LE 5 MAI A 03 HEURES HPT: 05.9 NORD / 24.2 OUEST
(CINQ DEGRES NEUF NORD ET VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES DEUX OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 25 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 08.8N 22.0W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 12.4N 18.7W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 14.4N 15.7W

UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE GRANDE DU SUD ET POUR
BARRIER ISLAND.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 10 HEURES HPT.

Advisory 5

TCAD2 HPCOR 050940 CCA
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 005 CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 4 AM LOCAL TIME

...CORRECTED FOR PARAGRAPHING

TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA)

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND A BETTER-ORGANISED STORM COMPARED TO ITS
SATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND 0200 HPT EARLIER TODAY. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45-KT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS CORRESPONDING TO 36 KT AT SURFACE... AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 999 HPA. SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN MIXED FROM T2.0/30 KTS TO T2.5/35 KTS. BASED ON THE
RECON INFORMATION... INITIAL INTENSITY IS RETAINED AT 35 KTS AND THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SHORT-LIVED. INITIAL 24-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED
AT 020/23.

AT 9 AM HPT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS
FROM THE COAST OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK, HERCONIA TO THE FORMER SETTLEMENT
OF COVASNA, TANTAVIA. 

DUE TO THE FORECASTED CARITAS LAND THREAT... THIS TROPICAL STORM... MORDREL HAS
BEEN ASSIGNED A NAME FROM THE CARITAS LIST CONTROLLED BY THE LOS LEJANOS CRM...
ARIANA.

AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST
OF GRAND ISLAND AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN 36-48 HOURS. EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE
IN ADVANCE OF A WARNING... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA) WAS ESTIMATED BY
RECONNAISSANCE DATA TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 23.7 WEST...
ABOUT 2905 KM... 1815 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD OR ABOUT 1485 KM... 925 MI
WEST-NORTHWEST OF FERONIA, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H
OR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... WITH SOME MINIMAL STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS RECORDED AT 999 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 42 KM/H... 26 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 190 KM... 120 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... ALTHOUGH INTENSITY FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY UPWARD TO NO LONGER REFLECT EXPECTED WEAKENING INTO A
DEPRESSION. SHEAR ALONG THIS TRACK REMAINS 15-20 KTS WHICH SHOULD STUNT ANY
INTENSIFICATION. DRY AIR HAS BACKED OFF BUT IS STILL PRESENT IN THE AREA AND THIS
TOO WILL PLAY A PART IN THE FUTURE OF MORDREL. SHOULD THE STORM FAIL TO ESCAPE THE
SHEAR AND DRY AIR... IT COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HOURS. THE
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT MORDREL WILL OVERCOME THESE CONDITIONS AND MAKE IT INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. ANOTHER
COMPLICATION IN THIS IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1000 KM
OR SO SOUTH OF MODNA SUD... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY ABSORB MORDREL AS IT
GETS CLOSE. HOWEVER... SHOULD THIS LOW MOVE AWAY EARLIER THAN EXPECTED... MORDREL
WILL NOT GET CAUGHT UP IN ITS STEERING CURRENTS AND MIGHT NOT REACH THE COAST
AS QUICKLY AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE MODELS ON MORDREL ARE STILL SPLIT FOR THE MOST PART... DIFFERING BOTH ON TRACK
AND INTENSITY. THE AFLE MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ONE OF THE MORE RELIABLE WITH MORDREL
AND TAKES MORDREL TO 45 KT JUST SHORT OF LANDFALL AT 60 HOURS WEST OF TOZAI... WHICH
BY CONTINUITY WOULD SEEM THE FAIREST ESTIMATE. THE HWS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE MORDREL
IN 36 HOURS... THIS IS PERHAPS THE MODEL TRYING TO SHOW MORDREL FULLY ABSORBED BY
THE LOW NEAR 11.3 N 17.1 W... WHICH IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IF THE LOW REMAINS
STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE THE LOW 
ABSORBING MODREL THEN BECOMING TROPICAL... BUT IT IS WISE TO NOT DISCOUNT ANYTHING
THAT COULD HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS UNCHANGED... BUT INTENSITY CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE AT THE 12 AND 48 HOUR FORECAST POINTS... FROM 30 AND 40 KTS UP TO 35
AND 45 KTS RESPECTIVELY.

SHOULD THE NON-TROPICAL LOW MOVE OFF EARLIER THAN EXPECTED... HUGE ERRORS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED OF THIS FORECAST... AND THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES MIGHT HAVE TO BE RE-ADJUSTED.

THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE HAS NOW PUT A RIVER/LAKE OVERFLOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR TOZAI, MORIANTON... IN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI WILL OVERFLOW
DURING LANDFALL. IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... THE 60-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS INCLUDED DUE
TO LANDFALL.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 05/0900H
 INITIAL... 06.5 N 23.7 W... 35 KT 
05/2100H... 08.0 N 22.8 W... 35 KT 
06/0900H... 09.5 N 21.4 W... 35 KT 
06/2100H... 11.8 N 19.4 W... 40 KT 
07/0900H... 13.0 N 18.0 W... 45 KT 
08/0300H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 40 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON
08/0900H... 15.0 N 14.6 W... 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 
09/0900H...DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 06.5 NORTH 23.7 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
23 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ÎLE GRANDE AND
FOR BARRIER ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS FROM
THE COASTAL EDGE OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK IN HERCONIA TO THE SETTLEMENT OF
COVASNA, FORMER TANTAVIA.

THE NEXT FULL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT. AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 1215 HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW02 FOLN 050935
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 0935 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0900 21460505
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         5
POSITION:           6.5N 23.7W
ACCURACY:           30NM
MOVEMENT:           NNE 23KT
CENT PRES:          999HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR:          8.0N 22.8W
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G50KT
NXT WRN:            1500 21460505=

BPCT2 HPCOR 051000
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 5
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 09 HEURES HPT, 5 MAI 2146

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/ARIANA/4602 [999 HPA].

POSITION LE 5 MAI À 09 HEURES HPT: 06.5 NORD / 23.7 OUEST
(SIX DEGRES CINQ NORD ET VINGT-TROIS DEGRES SEPT OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 23 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 09.5N 21.4W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 13.0N 18.0W
TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.0N 14.6W

UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LA CÔTE DE CARITAS:
PARC NATIONAL DE KELLIMITE VERS COVASNA.

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE GRANDE DU
SUD ET POUR BARRIER ISLAND.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 13 HEURES HPT.

Intermediate advisory 5A

TCIA2 HPCOR 051215
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 005A
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
12 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 10 AM PAX TIME... 7 AM LOCAL TIME

TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA)

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 005A OPERATIONAL TIME 1200 HPT MAY 5 2146
AT 12 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARRIER ISLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF GRAND ISLAND.

AT 12 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
COAST OF GRAND ISLAND NORTH OF 15N.

AT 12 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARITAS COAST
FROM THE COASTAL EDGE OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK IN HERCONIA NORTHWARD TO
COVASNA.

IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 36-48 
HOURS. 

AT 12 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA) WAS ESTIMATED TO
BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 23.4 WEST... ABOUT 2775 KM... 1735
MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD ON BARRIER ISLAND. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH... GUSTING TO 85 KM/H...
50 MPH. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM.

THE CURRENT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA. TROPICAL STORM
MORDREL IS STILL ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST COURSE AT 42 KM/H... 26 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 190 KM... 120 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE.

TIDES AND STORM SURGE ALONG THE EASTERN GREAT METS SEA COAST OF CARITAS... AND
ON ÎLE GRANDE AND BARRIER ISLAND... WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 METRES... 5 TO 8
FEET... ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF MODNA SUD...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SOON MOVE NORTH... WILL BRING STRONG TIDES TO BARRIER ISLAND.
INLAND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

NO RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MORDREL IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH OR WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS... ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN OF 25-50 MM... 1 TO 2 INCHES... IS
POSSIBLE OVER BARRIER ISLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW.

REPEATING THE 12 PM HPT POSITION... 6.9 NORTH 23.4 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
65 KM/H. MOVEMENT... NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 42 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 HPA.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC BY 1815 HPT. THE NEXT FULL
ADVISORY-DISCUSSION ON MORDREL WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC UNDER HEADER TCAD2 BY 1545
HPT.

FORECASTERS RINDLI/HUNTER

BPCT2 HPCOR 051300
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 5A
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 12 HEURES HPT, 5 MAI 2146

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/ARIANA/4602 [998 HPA].

POSITION LE 5 MAI À 12 HEURES HPT: 06.9 NORD / 23.4 OUEST
(SIX DEGRES NEUF NORD ET VINGT-TROIS DEGRES QUATRE OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 23 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 21H PAR 09.5N 21.4W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 45H PAR 13.0N 18.0W
TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 69H PAR 15.0N 14.6W

UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LA CÔTE DE CARITAS:
PARC NATIONAL DE KELLIMITE VERS COVASNA.

UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LA CÔTE D'EST DE
L'ÎLE GRANDE.

UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LA CÔTE DU SUD
DE L'ÎLE GRANDE ET POUR BARRIER ISLAND.

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 16 HEURES HPT.

Advisory 6

TCAD2 HPCOR 051545
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 006
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME

TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA)

RECON AIRCRAFT IS DUE IN TO INVESTIGATE MORDREL AROUND 1200 LOCAL TIME LATER
TODAY. BEFORE THEN... I HAVE THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE TO WRITE... AND SO BASED
ON CONTINUITY WILL USE THE INFORMATION WE HAD AT THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
THREE HOURS AGO. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL HAS BECOME BETTER CONSOLIDATED...
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CURRENTLY AT A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KTS
FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO MAXIMUM WIND SPEED AT THIS
POINT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KTS. MORDREL/ARIANA IS LOOKING GOOD
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT
I AM UNDER-ESTIMATING THE INTENSITY OF MORDREL RIGHT NOW. INITIAL 24-HOUR
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 030/25.

AT 3 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARRIER ISLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF GRAND ISLAND.

AT 3 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARITAS COAST
FROM THE COASTAL EDGE OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK IN HERCONIA NORTHWARD TO
COVASNA.

IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 36-48 
HOURS. 

AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA) WAS ESTIMATED BY
MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 23.0 WEST...
ABOUT 2615 KM... 1635 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD OR ABOUT 1420 KM... 885 MI
NORTHWEST OF FERONIA, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H
OR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... WITH SOME MINIMAL STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 997 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING
SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 46 KM/H... 29 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 210 KM... 130 MILES... FROM THE
CENTRE.

NO RAINFALL DIRECTLY FROM MORDREL IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING OR WATCH AREAS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ALTHOUGH TRACE AMOUNTS TO TWO INCHES... 50 MM... ARE POSSIBLE
ON BARRIER ISLAND DUE TO THE LARGER LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE AREA.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST AND FASTER THAN THE LAST ONE... FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS... BUT STILL FOLLOWS THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. THE LOW IS THE MAIN COMPLICATING
FACTOR HERE... AND WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS. INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS FROM 45 KT TO 40.

A RIVER/LAKE OVERFLOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TOZAI, MORIANTON... IN THE EXPECTATION
THAT THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI WILL OVERFLOW DURING PASSAGE OF MORDREL THROUGH MORIANTON.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 05/1500H
 INITIAL... 07.2 N 23.0 W... 35 KT 
06/0300H... 08.6 N 22.0 W... 35 KT 
06/1500H... 10.5 N 20.4 W... 35 KT 
07/0300H... 12.2 N 18.5 W... 40 KT 
07/1500H... 13.8 N 16.6 W... 40 KT 
08/0300H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 40 KT...LANDFALL 
08/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 07.2 NORTH 23.0 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 25 KT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF ÎLE GRANDE
AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS
FROM THE COASTAL EDGE OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK IN HERCONIA TO THE SETTLEMENT OF
COVASNA, FORMER TANTAVIA.

THE NEXT FULL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT. AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 1815 HPT. IF THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ANY NEW INFORMATION
EITHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE OR SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IN PLACE OF THE
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW02 FOLN 051545
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
ISSUED 1545 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        1500 21460505
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
TROP CYC:           MORDREL
WARNING NR:         6
POSITION:           7.2N 23.0W
ACCURACY:           30NM
MOVEMENT:           NNE 25KT
CENT PRES:          997HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           45KT
FCST 12HR:          8.6N 22.0W
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G50KT
NXT WRN:            1210 21460505=

BPCT2 HPCOR 051600
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 6
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 5 MAI 2146

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/ARIANA/4602 [997 HPA].

POSITION LE 5 MAI À 15 HEURES HPT: 07.2 NORD / 23.0 OUEST
(SEPT DEGRES DEUX NORD ET VINGT-TROIS DEGRES OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 25 KT

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
LES BULLETINS SUR LES CYCLONES TROPICAUX NE SERONT PLUS EN FRANÇAIS.
MERCI POUR L'USAGE DES BULLETINS FRANÇAIS.

Tropical Cyclone Update

TCUP2 HPCOR 051815
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602)
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
ISSUED BY MET SERVICE HQ... FOLENISA
6 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME... 1 PM LOCAL TIME

TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...
RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND 58-KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 45 KNOTS
AT THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS... INTENSITY IS UPPED TO 45 KTS FOR THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATE.

HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVOURABLE IN BOTH
THE SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM. IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTH OF BARRIER ISLAND WILL FULLY ABSORB A WEAKENING MORDREL WHEN MORDREL GETS
CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS THE LOCAL NAME 'ARIANA' IS DROPPED FROM FURTHER
ADVISORIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF
GRAND ISLAND AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS FROM KELLIMITE
NATIONAL PARK TO COVASNA IS NOW CANCELLED.

THE RIVER OVERFLOW ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR TOZAI IN MORIANTON IS NOW
CANCELLED.

ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST OF CARITAS
IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 KM... 160 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE.

AT 6 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS ESTIMATED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY
TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 22.6 WEST... ABOUT 2485 KM... 1550 MI
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 KM/H
OR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO START OCCURRING SOON.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 994 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING
SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 46 KM/H... 29 MPH.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC AT 9:45PM
HPT.

FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN