Difference between revisions of "TD02 (2146)/Past"
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CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. | CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. | ||
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22 HEURES HPT. | PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22 HEURES HPT. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==Advisory 3== | ||
+ | TCAD2 HPCOR 042135 | ||
+ | TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 003 | ||
+ | [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
+ | [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | ||
+ | 9 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 4 PM LOCAL TIME | ||
+ | |||
+ | CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF | ||
+ | THE CENTRE REVEALING A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. EXPECT THAT | ||
+ | THIS SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW TO MODERATE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REGENERATE | ||
+ | DEEP CONVECTION/CDO NEAR OR OVER CENTRE SOON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW | ||
+ | LITTLE CHANGE... STILL T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW HAS LOWERED INTENSITY | ||
+ | ESTIMATE TO T2.5. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS T-NUMBERS... AS WELL AS A RECONNAISSANCE | ||
+ | REPORT FROM FIVE HOURS AGO... WILL HOLD MORDREL AT 35 KT OR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. | ||
+ | MOTION OVER PAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED AT 045/17. INITIAL | ||
+ | MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/23. | ||
+ | |||
+ | AFTER SOME EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION... THE MSHPC HAS CHOSEN NOT TO NAME THE SYSTEM | ||
+ | ARIANA YET. THE LOS LEJANOS CRM WILL BE INFORMED AHEAD OF ANY SUCH NAMING. MORDREL | ||
+ | WILL BE GIVEN THE NAME ARIANA IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM. | ||
+ | |||
+ | AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY | ||
+ | TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.1 WEST... ABOUT 3290 KM... 2045 MILES... | ||
+ | SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD IN THE OUTER ISLANDS... OR ABOUT 2225 KM... 1385 MILES... | ||
+ | WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEOPOLINUS, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR | ||
+ | 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 HPA. TROPICAL | ||
+ | STORM MORDREL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 43 KM/H... 27 MPH. | ||
+ | |||
+ | INTENSIFICATION HAS MOMENTARILY RETARDED DUE TO SHEARING OF CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN | ||
+ | SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY AND MORDREL IS EXPECTED TO | ||
+ | CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE MODELS THAT PREDICTED A HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NW HAVE GOT | ||
+ | IT RIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THIS HIGH... AS WELL AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW | ||
+ | NEAR 11N 17W... WILL STEER THIS STORM TO THE RIGHT... OR EAST... OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST | ||
+ | TRACK... AND MORDREL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL | ||
+ | FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY. IN THE LONG-TERM... THE MODELS FORECAST SOME SORT | ||
+ | OF CURVATURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THEN TO THE EAST... WHICH PUTS MORIANTON IN THE FIRING | ||
+ | LINE OF THE STORM. | ||
+ | |||
+ | BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER | ||
+ | ISLANDS. WHILE MORDREL MAINTAINS GOOD OUTFLOW... SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ALONG THIS FORECAST | ||
+ | TRACK WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE DOWN. INTENSITY-FORECASTING COMPUTER MODELS NOW TAKE | ||
+ | MORDREL TO ABOUT 45 KT ON THIS TRACK... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW IN BUMPING THE | ||
+ | FORECAST INTENSITY DOWN TO PEAK AT 45 KT. | ||
+ | |||
+ | COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS... | ||
+ | SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS | ||
+ | SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY | ||
+ | FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV. | ||
+ | |||
+ | IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... THE 90-HOUR FORECAST IS SHOWN DUE TO EXPECTED LANDFALL. DUE | ||
+ | TO THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI... FLOODING/RIVER OVERFLOW MAY POSE A DANGEROUS PROBLEM. | ||
+ | |||
+ | OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT | ||
+ | INITIAL TIME... 04/2100H | ||
+ | INITIAL... 05.1 N 25.1 W... 35 KT <!-- 05/0300H... 05.8 N 24.4 W... 35 KT --> | ||
+ | 05/0900H... 06.5 N 23.7 W... 35 KT <!-- 05/1500H... 07.2 N 23.0 W... 35 KT --> | ||
+ | 05/2100H... 08.0 N 22.8 W... 40 KT <!-- 06/0300H... 08.8 N 22.0 W... 40 KT --> | ||
+ | 06/0900H... 09.5 N 21.4 W... 40 KT <!-- 06/1500H... 10.2 N 20.8 W... 40 KT --> | ||
+ | 06/2100H... 10.9 N 20.2 W... 40 KT <!-- 07/0300H... 11.7 N 19.8 W... 40 KT | ||
+ | 07/0900H... 12.4 N 19.2 W... 45 KT 07/1500H... 13.0 N 18.5 W... 45 KT --> | ||
+ | 07/2100H... 13.5 N 17.7 W... 45 KT...SOUTH OF ILE GRANDE, OUTER ISLANDS | ||
+ | <!-- | ||
+ | 08/0300H... 13.9 N 17.0 W... 45 KT 08/0900H... 14.3 N 16.4 W... 45 KT --> | ||
+ | 08/1500H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 45 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON | ||
+ | 08/2100H... 14.6 N 15.2 W... 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND | ||
+ | |||
+ | REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 05.1 NORTH 25.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR | ||
+ | 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 KT. | ||
+ | |||
+ | THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT. | ||
+ | |||
+ | FORECASTERS STELIVA/HUNTER | ||
+ | ---- | ||
+ | TCTW02 FOLN 042135 | ||
+ | TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | ||
+ | ISSUED 2135 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ | ||
+ | ACTIVE TIME: 2100 21460504 | ||
+ | TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN | ||
+ | TROP CYC: MORDREL | ||
+ | WARNING NR: 3 | ||
+ | POSITION: 5.1N 25.1W | ||
+ | ACCURACY: 25NM | ||
+ | MOVEMENT: NE 23KT | ||
+ | CENT PRES: 1000HPA | ||
+ | MAX WIND: 35KT | ||
+ | MAX GUST: 50KT | ||
+ | FCST 12HR: 6.5N 23.7W | ||
+ | FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G50KT | ||
+ | NXT WRN: 0300 21460504= | ||
+ | ---- | ||
+ | BPCT2 HPCOR 042200 | ||
+ | TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3 | ||
+ | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN | ||
+ | BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146 | ||
+ | |||
+ | TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA]. | ||
+ | |||
+ | POSITION LE 4 MAI A 21 HEURES HPT: 05.1 NORD / 25.1 OUEST | ||
+ | (CINQ DEGRES UN NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES UN OUEST) | ||
+ | |||
+ | DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST À 23 KT | ||
+ | |||
+ | VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS | ||
+ | DES PROCHAINS JOURS: | ||
+ | |||
+ | TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 08.0N 22.8W | ||
+ | TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.9N 20.2W | ||
+ | TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.5N 17.7W | ||
+ | TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.6N 15.2W | ||
+ | |||
+ | CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. | ||
+ | PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 04 HEURES HPT. |
Revision as of 05:34, 5 June 2007
Advisory 1
TCAD2 HPCOR 040925 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (4602) ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 AM HPT MAY 4 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME THE 7 A.M. RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SENT BACK INFORMATION CONFIRMING THE EXISTENCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA. CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY STRONG AT AROUND -60 CELSIUS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T2.0 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW IS GOING AGGRESSIVE AT T2.5/35 KT. BASED ON RECON INFORMATION... SETTING INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM TO 30 KT... MAKING THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/15. AT 9:00 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.9 WEST... OR ABOUT 1615 KM... 1010 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF FORMER EONWË, NEVERSHADOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 1003 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT NEAR 28 KM/H... 17 MPH ... BUT THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW... ONLY NEAR 10 KT... AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FUTHER. AN INCOMING FRONT FROM THE SW WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SYSTEM FORWARD... ALTHOUGH THE LOW COULD END UP BEING ABSORBED INTO THE FRONT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT. ALL MODELS CALL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO 30 DEG CELSIUS WATERS... AND THE MSHPC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN ABOUT 48 HOURS FOR CERTAIN AREAS. A TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST... THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE IMPACTED LATE IN THE FORECAST BY A WEAKENING SYSTEM... LIKELY STILL AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE FIRST NAME ON THE NAME LIST THIS SEASON IS 'MORDREL' SUBMITTED BY BOWIEKNIFE. CONSULTATIONS WITH THE LOS PAISES LEJANOS CENTRO REGIO DEL METEOROLOGIA WILL BE HELD IF NECESSARY TO DECIDE IF THE STORM SHOULD BE GIVEN A LOCAL NAME OFF THE CARITAS LIST. THE FIRST NAME ON THE LOCAL CARITAS LIST IS 'ARIANA'. GRAPHICAL FORECAST AIDS ON THE SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IF/WHEN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE PUT INTO PLACE. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 04/0900H INITIAL... 03.9 N 25.9 W... 30 KT 04/2100H... 04.9 N 25.3 W... 30 KT 05/0900H... 06.4 N 24.5 W... 35 KT 05/2100H... 07.8 N 23.2 W... 35 KT 06/0900H... 09.4 N 22.0 W... 40 KT 07/0900H... 12.5 N 18.9 W... 45 KT 08/0900H... 14.5 N 17.2 W... 40 KT... NEAR MODNA SUD REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 03.9 NORTH 25.9 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NNE AT 15 KT. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 1535 HPT. FORECASTER CALTS
BPCT2 HPCOR 041000 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 2 (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 09 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 2/4602 [1003 HPA]. POSITION LE 4 MAI A 09 HEURES HPT: 03.9 NORD / 25.9 OUEST (TROIS DEGRES NEUF NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES NEUF OUEST) DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 15 KT VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS: TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 06.4N 24.5W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 09.4N 22.0W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 12.5N 18.9W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.5N 17.2W CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 16 HEURES HPT.
Advisory 2
TCAD2 HPCOR 041535 TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 3 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME RECONNAISSANCE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... BUT EARLY REPORTS SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN ATTAINED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE UP... T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... AND T3.0 FROM HDCW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS UPPED TO 35 KT... MAKING TD-TWO TROPICAL STORM MORDREL. INITIAL MOTION IS 025/20. THE FIRST NAME ON THE CARITAS LIST... ARIANA... WILL BE ASSIGNED TO THIS SYSTEM IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM. AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST... OR ABOUT 1870 KM... 1170 MILES... WEST OF FERONIA, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT NEAR 36 KM/H... 23 MPH. MORDREL HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS (STT: D0.5/06HRS) AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MOST MODELS NO LONGER INITIATE THE FRONT MENTIONED IN THE FIRST DISCUSSION... INSTEAD MOST SHOW HIGH-PRESSURE BUILDING UP TO THE WEST OF MORDREL WHICH COULD PUSH THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED. WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FOR NOW... BUT IF MODELS VERIFY AND THE HIGH PUSHES IN... EXPECT WIDE DEVIATIONS FROM THE TRACK FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE NEEDED YET. MORDREL WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN WARM WATERS AIDED BY LOW SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER AS PER ABOVE... IF THERE ARE WIDE DEVIATIONS FROM THE TRACK FORECAST EMERGENCY WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE INSTITUTED AT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE. FOLLOWING THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST... MORDREL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO JUST SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE WEAKENING... ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TWO RELIABLE MODELS HAVE MORDREL PEAKING AS A 75-KT HURRICANE IN AROUND 72-96 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS... SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 04/1500H INITIAL... 04.5 N 25.6 W... 35 KT 05/0300H... 05.9 N 24.7 W... 40 KT 05/1500H... 07.2 N 23.7 W... 40 KT 06/0300H... 08.8 N 22.6 W... 45 KT 06/1500H... 10.3 N 21.1 W... 50 KT 07/1500H... 13.4 N 18.0 W... 60 KT 08/1500H... 15.0 N 16.7 W... 55 KT...EAST OF BARRIER ISLAND REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 04.5 NORTH 25.6 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NNE AT 20 KT. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 2135 HPT. FORECASTER RINDLI
TCTW02 FOLN 041535 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 1535 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 1500 21460504 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: MORDREL WARNING NR: 2 POSITION: 4.5N 25.6W ACCURACY: 35NM MOVEMENT: NNE 20KT CENT PRES: 1000HPA MAX WIND: 35KT MAX GUST: 50KT FCST 12HR: 5.9N 24.7W FCST 12HR WINDS: 40KT G55KT NXT WRN: 2100 21460504=
BPCT2 HPCOR 041600 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA]. POSITION LE 4 MAI A 15 HEURES HPT: 04.5 NORD / 25.6 OUEST (QUATRE DEGRES CINQ NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES SIX OUEST) DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 20 KT VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS: TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 07.2N 23.7W FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (50 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.3N 21.1W FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (60 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.4N 18.0W FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (55 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 15.0N 16.7W CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22 HEURES HPT.
Advisory 3
TCAD2 HPCOR 042135 TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 4 PM LOCAL TIME CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRE REVEALING A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. EXPECT THAT THIS SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW TO MODERATE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REGENERATE DEEP CONVECTION/CDO NEAR OR OVER CENTRE SOON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE... STILL T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW HAS LOWERED INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO T2.5. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS T-NUMBERS... AS WELL AS A RECONNAISSANCE REPORT FROM FIVE HOURS AGO... WILL HOLD MORDREL AT 35 KT OR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. MOTION OVER PAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED AT 045/17. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/23. AFTER SOME EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION... THE MSHPC HAS CHOSEN NOT TO NAME THE SYSTEM ARIANA YET. THE LOS LEJANOS CRM WILL BE INFORMED AHEAD OF ANY SUCH NAMING. MORDREL WILL BE GIVEN THE NAME ARIANA IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM. AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.1 WEST... ABOUT 3290 KM... 2045 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD IN THE OUTER ISLANDS... OR ABOUT 2225 KM... 1385 MILES... WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEOPOLINUS, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 43 KM/H... 27 MPH. INTENSIFICATION HAS MOMENTARILY RETARDED DUE TO SHEARING OF CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY AND MORDREL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE MODELS THAT PREDICTED A HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NW HAVE GOT IT RIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THIS HIGH... AS WELL AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW NEAR 11N 17W... WILL STEER THIS STORM TO THE RIGHT... OR EAST... OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... AND MORDREL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY. IN THE LONG-TERM... THE MODELS FORECAST SOME SORT OF CURVATURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THEN TO THE EAST... WHICH PUTS MORIANTON IN THE FIRING LINE OF THE STORM. BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS. WHILE MORDREL MAINTAINS GOOD OUTFLOW... SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE DOWN. INTENSITY-FORECASTING COMPUTER MODELS NOW TAKE MORDREL TO ABOUT 45 KT ON THIS TRACK... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW IN BUMPING THE FORECAST INTENSITY DOWN TO PEAK AT 45 KT. COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS... SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV. IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... THE 90-HOUR FORECAST IS SHOWN DUE TO EXPECTED LANDFALL. DUE TO THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI... FLOODING/RIVER OVERFLOW MAY POSE A DANGEROUS PROBLEM. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 04/2100H INITIAL... 05.1 N 25.1 W... 35 KT 05/0900H... 06.5 N 23.7 W... 35 KT 05/2100H... 08.0 N 22.8 W... 40 KT 06/0900H... 09.5 N 21.4 W... 40 KT 06/2100H... 10.9 N 20.2 W... 40 KT 07/2100H... 13.5 N 17.7 W... 45 KT...SOUTH OF ILE GRANDE, OUTER ISLANDS 08/1500H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 45 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON 08/2100H... 14.6 N 15.2 W... 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 05.1 NORTH 25.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 KT. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT. FORECASTERS STELIVA/HUNTER
TCTW02 FOLN 042135 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 2135 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 2100 21460504 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: MORDREL WARNING NR: 3 POSITION: 5.1N 25.1W ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: NE 23KT CENT PRES: 1000HPA MAX WIND: 35KT MAX GUST: 50KT FCST 12HR: 6.5N 23.7W FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G50KT NXT WRN: 0300 21460504=
BPCT2 HPCOR 042200 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA]. POSITION LE 4 MAI A 21 HEURES HPT: 05.1 NORD / 25.1 OUEST (CINQ DEGRES UN NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES UN OUEST) DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST À 23 KT VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS: TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 08.0N 22.8W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.9N 20.2W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.5N 17.7W TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.6N 15.2W CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 04 HEURES HPT.