Difference between revisions of "TD02 (2146)/Past"
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LES BULLETINS SUR LES CYCLONES TROPICAUX NE SERONT PLUS EN FRANÇAIS. | LES BULLETINS SUR LES CYCLONES TROPICAUX NE SERONT PLUS EN FRANÇAIS. | ||
MERCI POUR L'USAGE DES BULLETINS FRANÇAIS. | MERCI POUR L'USAGE DES BULLETINS FRANÇAIS. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ===Tropical Cyclone Update=== | ||
+ | TCUP2 HPCOR 051815 | ||
+ | TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE | ||
+ | TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) | ||
+ | [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
+ | [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS | ||
+ | ISSUED BY MET SERVICE HQ... FOLENISA | ||
+ | 6 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME... 1 PM LOCAL TIME | ||
+ | |||
+ | TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... | ||
+ | RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND 58-KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 45 KNOTS | ||
+ | AT THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS... INTENSITY IS UPPED TO 45 KTS FOR THIS TROPICAL | ||
+ | CYCLONE UPDATE. | ||
+ | |||
+ | HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVOURABLE IN BOTH | ||
+ | THE SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM. IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM | ||
+ | SOUTH OF BARRIER ISLAND WILL FULLY ABSORB A WEAKENING MORDREL WHEN MORDREL GETS | ||
+ | CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS THE LOCAL NAME 'ARIANA' IS DROPPED FROM FURTHER | ||
+ | ADVISORIES. | ||
+ | |||
+ | A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF | ||
+ | GRAND ISLAND AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. | ||
+ | |||
+ | THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS FROM KELLIMITE | ||
+ | NATIONAL PARK TO COVASNA IS NOW CANCELLED. | ||
+ | |||
+ | THE RIVER OVERFLOW ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR TOZAI IN MORIANTON IS NOW | ||
+ | CANCELLED. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST OF CARITAS | ||
+ | IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. | ||
+ | |||
+ | TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 KM... 160 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. | ||
+ | |||
+ | AT 6 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS ESTIMATED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY | ||
+ | TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 22.6 WEST... ABOUT 2485 KM... 1550 MI | ||
+ | SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 KM/H | ||
+ | OR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO START OCCURRING SOON. | ||
+ | MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 994 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING | ||
+ | SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 46 KM/H... 29 MPH. | ||
+ | |||
+ | THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC AT 9:45PM | ||
+ | HPT. | ||
+ | |||
+ | FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN |
Revision as of 11:49, 20 June 2007
Contents
Advisory 1
TCAD2 HPCOR 040925 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (4602) ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 AM HPT MAY 4 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME THE 7 A.M. RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SENT BACK INFORMATION CONFIRMING THE EXISTENCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA. CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY STRONG AT AROUND -60 CELSIUS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T2.0 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW IS GOING AGGRESSIVE AT T2.5/35 KT. BASED ON RECON INFORMATION... SETTING INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM TO 30 KT... MAKING THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/15. AT 9:00 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.9 WEST... OR ABOUT 1615 KM... 1010 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF FORMER EONWË, NEVERSHADOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 1003 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT NEAR 28 KM/H... 17 MPH ... BUT THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW... ONLY NEAR 10 KT... AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FUTHER. AN INCOMING FRONT FROM THE SW WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SYSTEM FORWARD... ALTHOUGH THE LOW COULD END UP BEING ABSORBED INTO THE FRONT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT. ALL MODELS CALL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO 30 DEG CELSIUS WATERS... AND THE MSHPC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN ABOUT 48 HOURS FOR CERTAIN AREAS. A TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST... THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE IMPACTED LATE IN THE FORECAST BY A WEAKENING SYSTEM... LIKELY STILL AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE FIRST NAME ON THE NAME LIST THIS SEASON IS 'MORDREL' SUBMITTED BY BOWIEKNIFE. CONSULTATIONS WITH THE LOS PAISES LEJANOS CENTRO REGIO DEL METEOROLOGIA WILL BE HELD IF NECESSARY TO DECIDE IF THE STORM SHOULD BE GIVEN A LOCAL NAME OFF THE CARITAS LIST. THE FIRST NAME ON THE LOCAL CARITAS LIST IS 'ARIANA'. GRAPHICAL FORECAST AIDS ON THE SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IF/WHEN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE PUT INTO PLACE. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 04/0900H INITIAL... 03.9 N 25.9 W... 30 KT 04/2100H... 04.9 N 25.3 W... 30 KT 05/0900H... 06.4 N 24.5 W... 35 KT 05/2100H... 07.8 N 23.2 W... 35 KT 06/0900H... 09.4 N 22.0 W... 40 KT 07/0900H... 12.5 N 18.9 W... 45 KT 08/0900H... 14.5 N 17.2 W... 40 KT... NEAR MODNA SUD REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 03.9 NORTH 25.9 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NNE AT 15 KT. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 1535 HPT. FORECASTER CALTS
BPCT2 HPCOR 041000 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 2 (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 09 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 2/4602 [1003 HPA]. POSITION LE 4 MAI A 09 HEURES HPT: 03.9 NORD / 25.9 OUEST (TROIS DEGRES NEUF NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES NEUF OUEST) DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 15 KT VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS: TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 06.4N 24.5W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 09.4N 22.0W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 12.5N 18.9W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.5N 17.2W CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 16 HEURES HPT.
Advisory 2
TCAD2 HPCOR 041535 TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 3 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME RECONNAISSANCE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... BUT EARLY REPORTS SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN ATTAINED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO BE ON THE UP... T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... AND T3.0 FROM HDCW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS UPPED TO 35 KT... MAKING TD-TWO TROPICAL STORM MORDREL. INITIAL MOTION IS 025/20. THE FIRST NAME ON THE CARITAS LIST... ARIANA... WILL BE ASSIGNED TO THIS SYSTEM IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM. AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST... OR ABOUT 1870 KM... 1170 MILES... WEST OF FERONIA, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT NEAR 36 KM/H... 23 MPH. MORDREL HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS (STT: D0.5/06HRS) AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MOST MODELS NO LONGER INITIATE THE FRONT MENTIONED IN THE FIRST DISCUSSION... INSTEAD MOST SHOW HIGH-PRESSURE BUILDING UP TO THE WEST OF MORDREL WHICH COULD PUSH THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED. WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FOR NOW... BUT IF MODELS VERIFY AND THE HIGH PUSHES IN... EXPECT WIDE DEVIATIONS FROM THE TRACK FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRACK NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE NEEDED YET. MORDREL WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN WARM WATERS AIDED BY LOW SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER AS PER ABOVE... IF THERE ARE WIDE DEVIATIONS FROM THE TRACK FORECAST EMERGENCY WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE INSTITUTED AT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE. FOLLOWING THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST... MORDREL IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO JUST SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE WEAKENING... ALTHOUGH IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TWO RELIABLE MODELS HAVE MORDREL PEAKING AS A 75-KT HURRICANE IN AROUND 72-96 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS... SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 04/1500H INITIAL... 04.5 N 25.6 W... 35 KT 05/0300H... 05.9 N 24.7 W... 40 KT 05/1500H... 07.2 N 23.7 W... 40 KT 06/0300H... 08.8 N 22.6 W... 45 KT 06/1500H... 10.3 N 21.1 W... 50 KT 07/1500H... 13.4 N 18.0 W... 60 KT 08/1500H... 15.0 N 16.7 W... 55 KT...EAST OF BARRIER ISLAND REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 04.5 NORTH 25.6 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NNE AT 20 KT. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 2135 HPT. FORECASTER RINDLI
TCTW02 FOLN 041535 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 1535 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 1500 21460504 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: MORDREL WARNING NR: 2 POSITION: 4.5N 25.6W ACCURACY: 35NM MOVEMENT: NNE 20KT CENT PRES: 1000HPA MAX WIND: 35KT MAX GUST: 50KT FCST 12HR: 5.9N 24.7W FCST 12HR WINDS: 40KT G55KT NXT WRN: 2100 21460504=
BPCT2 HPCOR 041600 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA]. POSITION LE 4 MAI A 15 HEURES HPT: 04.5 NORD / 25.6 OUEST (QUATRE DEGRES CINQ NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES SIX OUEST) DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 20 KT VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS: TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 07.2N 23.7W FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (50 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.3N 21.1W FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (60 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.4N 18.0W FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (55 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 15.0N 16.7W CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22 HEURES HPT.
Advisory 3
TCAD2 HPCOR 042135 TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 PM HPT MAY 4 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 4 PM LOCAL TIME CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRE REVEALING A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE. EXPECT THAT THIS SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW TO MODERATE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO REGENERATE DEEP CONVECTION/CDO NEAR OR OVER CENTRE SOON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE... STILL T2.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW HAS LOWERED INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO T2.5. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS T-NUMBERS... AS WELL AS A RECONNAISSANCE REPORT FROM FIVE HOURS AGO... WILL HOLD MORDREL AT 35 KT OR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. MOTION OVER PAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN FURTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED AT 045/17. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/23. AFTER SOME EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION... THE MSHPC HAS CHOSEN NOT TO NAME THE SYSTEM ARIANA YET. THE LOS LEJANOS CRM WILL BE INFORMED AHEAD OF ANY SUCH NAMING. MORDREL WILL BE GIVEN THE NAME ARIANA IF IT THREATENS LAND-BASED CARITAS AS A TROPICAL STORM. AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.1 WEST... ABOUT 3290 KM... 2045 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD IN THE OUTER ISLANDS... OR ABOUT 2225 KM... 1385 MILES... WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEOPOLINUS, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 43 KM/H... 27 MPH. INTENSIFICATION HAS MOMENTARILY RETARDED DUE TO SHEARING OF CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY AND MORDREL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE MODELS THAT PREDICTED A HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE NW HAVE GOT IT RIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THIS HIGH... AS WELL AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW NEAR 11N 17W... WILL STEER THIS STORM TO THE RIGHT... OR EAST... OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... AND MORDREL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AS NECESSARY. IN THE LONG-TERM... THE MODELS FORECAST SOME SORT OF CURVATURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THEN TO THE EAST... WHICH PUTS MORIANTON IN THE FIRING LINE OF THE STORM. BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS. WHILE MORDREL MAINTAINS GOOD OUTFLOW... SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE DOWN. INTENSITY-FORECASTING COMPUTER MODELS NOW TAKE MORDREL TO ABOUT 45 KT ON THIS TRACK... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW IN BUMPING THE FORECAST INTENSITY DOWN TO PEAK AT 45 KT. COASTAL CITIES ON THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS WELL AS THE OUTER ISLANDS... SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SURF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. RESIDENTS OF THESE AREAS SHOULD REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER BULLETINS. FOR THE OUTER ISLANDS... REFER TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM THE MET SERVICE IN FOLENISA UNDER ADVISORY HEADER ILEXADV. IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... THE 90-HOUR FORECAST IS SHOWN DUE TO EXPECTED LANDFALL. DUE TO THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI... FLOODING/RIVER OVERFLOW MAY POSE A DANGEROUS PROBLEM. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 04/2100H INITIAL... 05.1 N 25.1 W... 35 KT 05/0900H... 06.5 N 23.7 W... 35 KT 05/2100H... 08.0 N 22.8 W... 40 KT 06/0900H... 09.5 N 21.4 W... 40 KT 06/2100H... 10.9 N 20.2 W... 40 KT 07/2100H... 13.5 N 17.7 W... 45 KT...SOUTH OF ILE GRANDE, OUTER ISLANDS 08/1500H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 45 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON 08/2100H... 14.6 N 15.2 W... 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 05.1 NORTH 25.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 KT. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT. FORECASTERS STELIVA/HUNTER
TCTW02 FOLN 042135 CCA TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING CORRECTED ISSUED 2135 HPT MAY 4 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ CORRECTION: NEXT WARNING TIME ACTIVE TIME: 2100 21460504 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: MORDREL WARNING NR: 3 POSITION: 5.1N 25.1W ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: NE 23KT CENT PRES: 1000HPA MAX WIND: 35KT MAX GUST: 50KT FCST 12HR: 6.5N 23.7W FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G50KT NXT WRN: 0300 21460505=
BPCT2 HPCOR 042200 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 21 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1000 HPA]. POSITION LE 4 MAI A 21 HEURES HPT: 05.1 NORD / 25.1 OUEST (CINQ DEGRES UN NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES UN OUEST) DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST À 23 KT VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS: TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 08.0N 22.8W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10.9N 20.2W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.5N 17.7W TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.6N 15.2W CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 04 HEURES HPT.
Advisory 4
TCAD2 HPCOR 050335 TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 004 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 3 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 10 PM MAY 4 LOCAL TIME SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MORDREL HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS IS DUE TO DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM... WHICH HAD ALREADY BEEN SHEARED BADLY. HOWEVER... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL RANGE IN THE 2S... T2.0/30 KTS FROM AFLE AND T2.5/35 KTS FROM UHWF AND HDCW. THE 1:45 AM HPT WIND SCATTEROMETER PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE IN THE GAPS IN BOTH ITS ASCENDING AND DESCENDING PASSES SO THERE ARE NO SOLID WINDSPEED DATA AVAILABLE. BASED ON CONTINUITY AM KEEPING MORDREL AT 35 KTS AND A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ALTHOUGH IN REALITY MORDREL COULD BE A DEPRESSION. AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN DESPATCHED FROM AD'IHAN IN THE OUTER ISLANDS TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD REPORT BACK ITS FIRST READINGS BY MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME... 5 AM HPT. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 015/25. AT 3 AM HPT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ÎLE GRANDE OF THE OUTER ISLANDS... THE COAST SOUTH OF LATITUDE 15 NORTH... AND FOR THE WHOLE OF BARRIER ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY SOON BE PUT INTO PLACE FOR PARTS OF THE HERCONIAN AND MORIANTON COASTLINES. IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN 36-48 HOURS. EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE IN ADVANCE OF A WARNING. AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 24.2 WEST... ABOUT 3115 KM/1935 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD OR ABOUT 2065 KM/1285 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF DEOPOLINUS, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 46 KM/H... 29 MPH. SHEAR ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 15-20 KTS AND THIS COULD TAKE A FURTHER TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. DRY AIR CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM COULD WELL SEE MORDREL ON THE FAST-TRACK TO REMNANT LOW-VILLE... BUT THIS IS AN 'IF'. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MORDREL HAS WARMED TO ABOUT -60 C. ASSUMING THAT MORDREL CAN OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR... MORDREL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN A MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TREK ON A GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION. THE COMPUTER MODELS DEPICT A STRENGTHENING OF THE NON-TROPICAL LOW NEAR 11N 17W ABOUT 1070 KM SOUTH OF MODNA SUD. THIS NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO START PULLING AWAY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHICH COULD DRASTICALLY INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED OF MORDREL. INTENSITY MODELS ARE SPLIT... MOST OF THE MAJOR MODELS DO FINE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE MODEL DISSIPATES MORDREL WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS SITUATION IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS BUT IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY. THE OTHER MODELS PEAK MORDREL AT 40-50 KT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW WEST OF NORTHERN HERCONIA... WILL CALL FOR A NEW PEAK OF 40 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS INITIAL WEAKENING DUE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WEST OF TOZAI, MORIANTON IN 72 HOURS OR THEREABOUTS. THE ALTERNATE SCENARIOS INCLUDE MORDREL DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS... OR BEING FULLY ABSORBED BY THE NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. WHILE BOTH ARE STILL DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES AM DISCOUNTING THEM BASED ON CONTINUITY OF FORECAST TRACK. BASED ON THIS NEW FORECAST... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF GRAND ISLAND AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE EXPECTATION IN THE FORECAST THAT MORDREL WILL CATCH ON TO THE NON-TROPICAL LOW... WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE ISLANDS WHILE DRAGGING MORDREL ALONG. HEAVY SURF SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN THE OUTER ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF THE EASTERN MOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA... AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TIDES ON THE WESTERN MOUTH... FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNTIL LANDFALL. THE FORECAST LANDFALL POINT... TOZAI, MORIANTON... MIGHT BE IN FOR A ROUGH TIME IF THE TOZAI LAKE OVERFLOWS DURING LANDFALL. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 05/0300H INITIAL... 05.9 N 24.2 W... 35 KT 05/1500H... 07.2 N 23.0 W... 30 KT 06/0300H... 08.8 N 22.0 W... 35 KT 06/1500H... 10.2 N 20.8 W... 35 KT...PARTIAL ABSORPTION BY NON-TROPICAL LOW 07/0300H... 12.4 N 18.7 W... 40 KT 08/0300H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 40 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON 09/0300H...DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 05.9 NORTH 24.2 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH- NORTHEAST AT 25 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ÎLE GRANDE AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT. FORECASTER STELIVA
TCTW02 FOLN 050335 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 0335 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 0300 21460505 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: MORDREL WARNING NR: 4 POSITION: 5.9N 24.2W ACCURACY: 45NM MOVEMENT: NNE 25KT CENT PRES: 1002HPA MAX WIND: 35KT MAX GUST: 45KT FCST 12HR: 7.2N 23.0W FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT NXT WRN: 0900 21460505=
BPCT2 HPCOR 050400 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 4 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 5 MAI 2146 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/4602 [1002 HPA]. POSITION LE 5 MAI A 03 HEURES HPT: 05.9 NORD / 24.2 OUEST (CINQ DEGRES NEUF NORD ET VINGT-QUATRE DEGRES DEUX OUEST) DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 25 KT VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS: TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 08.8N 22.0W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 12.4N 18.7W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 14.4N 15.7W UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE GRANDE DU SUD ET POUR BARRIER ISLAND. CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 10 HEURES HPT.
Advisory 5
TCAD2 HPCOR 050940 CCA TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 005 CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 4 AM LOCAL TIME ...CORRECTED FOR PARAGRAPHING TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA) THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND A BETTER-ORGANISED STORM COMPARED TO ITS SATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND 0200 HPT EARLIER TODAY. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS CORRESPONDING TO 36 KT AT SURFACE... AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 HPA. SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS STARTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN MIXED FROM T2.0/30 KTS TO T2.5/35 KTS. BASED ON THE RECON INFORMATION... INITIAL INTENSITY IS RETAINED AT 35 KTS AND THE EXPECTED WEAKENING HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SHORT-LIVED. INITIAL 24-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 020/23. AT 9 AM HPT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS FROM THE COAST OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK, HERCONIA TO THE FORMER SETTLEMENT OF COVASNA, TANTAVIA. DUE TO THE FORECASTED CARITAS LAND THREAT... THIS TROPICAL STORM... MORDREL HAS BEEN ASSIGNED A NAME FROM THE CARITAS LIST CONTROLLED BY THE LOS LEJANOS CRM... ARIANA. AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF GRAND ISLAND AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN 36-48 HOURS. EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE IN ADVANCE OF A WARNING... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA) WAS ESTIMATED BY RECONNAISSANCE DATA TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 23.7 WEST... ABOUT 2905 KM... 1815 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD OR ABOUT 1485 KM... 925 MI WEST-NORTHWEST OF FERONIA, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... WITH SOME MINIMAL STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS RECORDED AT 999 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 42 KM/H... 26 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 190 KM... 120 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... ALTHOUGH INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY UPWARD TO NO LONGER REFLECT EXPECTED WEAKENING INTO A DEPRESSION. SHEAR ALONG THIS TRACK REMAINS 15-20 KTS WHICH SHOULD STUNT ANY INTENSIFICATION. DRY AIR HAS BACKED OFF BUT IS STILL PRESENT IN THE AREA AND THIS TOO WILL PLAY A PART IN THE FUTURE OF MORDREL. SHOULD THE STORM FAIL TO ESCAPE THE SHEAR AND DRY AIR... IT COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HOURS. THE FORECAST ASSUMES THAT MORDREL WILL OVERCOME THESE CONDITIONS AND MAKE IT INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IN THIS IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1000 KM OR SO SOUTH OF MODNA SUD... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY ABSORB MORDREL AS IT GETS CLOSE. HOWEVER... SHOULD THIS LOW MOVE AWAY EARLIER THAN EXPECTED... MORDREL WILL NOT GET CAUGHT UP IN ITS STEERING CURRENTS AND MIGHT NOT REACH THE COAST AS QUICKLY AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE MODELS ON MORDREL ARE STILL SPLIT FOR THE MOST PART... DIFFERING BOTH ON TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE AFLE MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN ONE OF THE MORE RELIABLE WITH MORDREL AND TAKES MORDREL TO 45 KT JUST SHORT OF LANDFALL AT 60 HOURS WEST OF TOZAI... WHICH BY CONTINUITY WOULD SEEM THE FAIREST ESTIMATE. THE HWS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE MORDREL IN 36 HOURS... THIS IS PERHAPS THE MODEL TRYING TO SHOW MORDREL FULLY ABSORBED BY THE LOW NEAR 11.3 N 17.1 W... WHICH IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IF THE LOW REMAINS STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE THE LOW
ABSORBING MODREL THEN BECOMING TROPICAL... BUT IT IS WISE TO NOT DISCOUNT ANYTHING THAT COULD HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS UNCHANGED... BUT INTENSITY CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THE 12 AND 48 HOUR FORECAST POINTS... FROM 30 AND 40 KTS UP TO 35 AND 45 KTS RESPECTIVELY. SHOULD THE NON-TROPICAL LOW MOVE OFF EARLIER THAN EXPECTED... HUGE ERRORS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OF THIS FORECAST... AND THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES MIGHT HAVE TO BE RE-ADJUSTED. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE HAS NOW PUT A RIVER/LAKE OVERFLOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TOZAI, MORIANTON... IN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI WILL OVERFLOW DURING LANDFALL. IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... THE 60-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS INCLUDED DUE TO LANDFALL. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 05/0900H INITIAL... 06.5 N 23.7 W... 35 KT 05/2100H... 08.0 N 22.8 W... 35 KT 06/0900H... 09.5 N 21.4 W... 35 KT 06/2100H... 11.8 N 19.4 W... 40 KT 07/0900H... 13.0 N 18.0 W... 45 KT 08/0300H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 40 KT...LANDFALL W OF TOZAI, MORIANTON 08/0900H... 15.0 N 14.6 W... 35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 09/0900H...DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 06.5 NORTH 23.7 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 23 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ÎLE GRANDE AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS FROM THE COASTAL EDGE OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK IN HERCONIA TO THE SETTLEMENT OF COVASNA, FORMER TANTAVIA. THE NEXT FULL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 1215 HPT. FORECASTER RINDLI
TCTW02 FOLN 050935 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 0935 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 0900 21460505 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: MORDREL WARNING NR: 5 POSITION: 6.5N 23.7W ACCURACY: 30NM MOVEMENT: NNE 23KT CENT PRES: 999HPA MAX WIND: 35KT MAX GUST: 50KT FCST 12HR: 8.0N 22.8W FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G50KT NXT WRN: 1500 21460505=
BPCT2 HPCOR 051000 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 5 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 09 HEURES HPT, 5 MAI 2146 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/ARIANA/4602 [999 HPA]. POSITION LE 5 MAI À 09 HEURES HPT: 06.5 NORD / 23.7 OUEST (SIX DEGRES CINQ NORD ET VINGT-TROIS DEGRES SEPT OUEST) DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 23 KT VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS: TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 09.5N 21.4W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 13.0N 18.0W TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15.0N 14.6W UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LA CÔTE DE CARITAS: PARC NATIONAL DE KELLIMITE VERS COVASNA. UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE GRANDE DU SUD ET POUR BARRIER ISLAND. CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 13 HEURES HPT.
Intermediate advisory 5A
TCIA2 HPCOR 051215 TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 005A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 12 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 10 AM PAX TIME... 7 AM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 005A OPERATIONAL TIME 1200 HPT MAY 5 2146 AT 12 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARRIER ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF GRAND ISLAND. AT 12 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF GRAND ISLAND NORTH OF 15N. AT 12 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARITAS COAST FROM THE COASTAL EDGE OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK IN HERCONIA NORTHWARD TO COVASNA. IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 36-48 HOURS. AT 12 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA) WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 23.4 WEST... ABOUT 2775 KM... 1735 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD ON BARRIER ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH... GUSTING TO 85 KM/H... 50 MPH. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE CURRENT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS STILL ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST COURSE AT 42 KM/H... 26 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 190 KM... 120 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. TIDES AND STORM SURGE ALONG THE EASTERN GREAT METS SEA COAST OF CARITAS... AND ON ÎLE GRANDE AND BARRIER ISLAND... WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 METRES... 5 TO 8 FEET... ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH OF MODNA SUD... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SOON MOVE NORTH... WILL BRING STRONG TIDES TO BARRIER ISLAND. INLAND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. NO RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MORDREL IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH OR WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS... ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN OF 25-50 MM... 1 TO 2 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE OVER BARRIER ISLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW. REPEATING THE 12 PM HPT POSITION... 6.9 NORTH 23.4 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 KM/H. MOVEMENT... NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 42 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 HPA. THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC BY 1815 HPT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY-DISCUSSION ON MORDREL WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC UNDER HEADER TCAD2 BY 1545 HPT. FORECASTERS RINDLI/HUNTER
BPCT2 HPCOR 051300 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 5A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 12 HEURES HPT, 5 MAI 2146 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/ARIANA/4602 [998 HPA]. POSITION LE 5 MAI À 12 HEURES HPT: 06.9 NORD / 23.4 OUEST (SIX DEGRES NEUF NORD ET VINGT-TROIS DEGRES QUATRE OUEST) DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 23 KT VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS: TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 21H PAR 09.5N 21.4W TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 45H PAR 13.0N 18.0W TEMPÊTE SUR TERRE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 69H PAR 15.0N 14.6W UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LA CÔTE DE CARITAS: PARC NATIONAL DE KELLIMITE VERS COVASNA. UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LA CÔTE D'EST DE L'ÎLE GRANDE. UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LA CÔTE DU SUD DE L'ÎLE GRANDE ET POUR BARRIER ISLAND. CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 5 MAI À 16 HEURES HPT.
Advisory 6
TCAD2 HPCOR 051545 TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) ADVISORY 006 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 3 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 10 AM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA) RECON AIRCRAFT IS DUE IN TO INVESTIGATE MORDREL AROUND 1200 LOCAL TIME LATER TODAY. BEFORE THEN... I HAVE THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE TO WRITE... AND SO BASED ON CONTINUITY WILL USE THE INFORMATION WE HAD AT THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY THREE HOURS AGO. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL HAS BECOME BETTER CONSOLIDATED... AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CURRENTLY AT A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KTS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO MAXIMUM WIND SPEED AT THIS POINT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KTS. MORDREL/ARIANA IS LOOKING GOOD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY... AND I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT I AM UNDER-ESTIMATING THE INTENSITY OF MORDREL RIGHT NOW. INITIAL 24-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 030/25. AT 3 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARRIER ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF GRAND ISLAND. AT 3 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARITAS COAST FROM THE COASTAL EDGE OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK IN HERCONIA NORTHWARD TO COVASNA. IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 36-48 HOURS. AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (ARIANA) WAS ESTIMATED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 23.0 WEST... ABOUT 2615 KM... 1635 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD OR ABOUT 1420 KM... 885 MI NORTHWEST OF FERONIA, HERCONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... WITH SOME MINIMAL STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 997 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 46 KM/H... 29 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 210 KM... 130 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. NO RAINFALL DIRECTLY FROM MORDREL IS EXPECTED IN THE WARNING OR WATCH AREAS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ALTHOUGH TRACE AMOUNTS TO TWO INCHES... 50 MM... ARE POSSIBLE ON BARRIER ISLAND DUE TO THE LARGER LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE AREA. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST AND FASTER THAN THE LAST ONE... FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS... BUT STILL FOLLOWS THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. THE LOW IS THE MAIN COMPLICATING FACTOR HERE... AND WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS. INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS FROM 45 KT TO 40. A RIVER/LAKE OVERFLOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TOZAI, MORIANTON... IN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE LAKE NORTH OF TOZAI WILL OVERFLOW DURING PASSAGE OF MORDREL THROUGH MORIANTON. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 05/1500H INITIAL... 07.2 N 23.0 W... 35 KT 06/0300H... 08.6 N 22.0 W... 35 KT 06/1500H... 10.5 N 20.4 W... 35 KT 07/0300H... 12.2 N 18.5 W... 40 KT 07/1500H... 13.8 N 16.6 W... 40 KT 08/0300H... 14.4 N 15.7 W... 40 KT...LANDFALL 08/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 07.2 NORTH 23.0 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 25 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF ÎLE GRANDE AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS FROM THE COASTAL EDGE OF THE KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK IN HERCONIA TO THE SETTLEMENT OF COVASNA, FORMER TANTAVIA. THE NEXT FULL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 1815 HPT. IF THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ANY NEW INFORMATION EITHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE OR SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IN PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. FORECASTER RINDLI
TCTW02 FOLN 051545 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 1545 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 1500 21460505 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: MORDREL WARNING NR: 6 POSITION: 7.2N 23.0W ACCURACY: 30NM MOVEMENT: NNE 25KT CENT PRES: 997HPA MAX WIND: 35KT MAX GUST: 45KT FCST 12HR: 8.6N 22.0W FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G50KT NXT WRN: 1210 21460505=
BPCT2 HPCOR 051600 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 6 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 5 MAI 2146 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE MORDREL/ARIANA/4602 [997 HPA]. POSITION LE 5 MAI À 15 HEURES HPT: 07.2 NORD / 23.0 OUEST (SEPT DEGRES DEUX NORD ET VINGT-TROIS DEGRES OUEST) DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 25 KT CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. LES BULLETINS SUR LES CYCLONES TROPICAUX NE SERONT PLUS EN FRANÇAIS. MERCI POUR L'USAGE DES BULLETINS FRANÇAIS.
Tropical Cyclone Update
TCUP2 HPCOR 051815 TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE TROPICAL STORM MORDREL (4602) LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS ISSUED BY MET SERVICE HQ... FOLENISA 6 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME... 1 PM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND 58-KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 45 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS... INTENSITY IS UPPED TO 45 KTS FOR THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVOURABLE IN BOTH THE SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM. IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF BARRIER ISLAND WILL FULLY ABSORB A WEAKENING MORDREL WHEN MORDREL GETS CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS THE LOCAL NAME 'ARIANA' IS DROPPED FROM FURTHER ADVISORIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF GRAND ISLAND AND FOR BARRIER ISLAND. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CARITAS FROM KELLIMITE NATIONAL PARK TO COVASNA IS NOW CANCELLED. THE RIVER OVERFLOW ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR TOZAI IN MORIANTON IS NOW CANCELLED. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST OF CARITAS IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 KM... 160 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. AT 6 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS ESTIMATED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 22.6 WEST... ABOUT 2485 KM... 1550 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MODNA SUD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 KM/H OR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO START OCCURRING SOON. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 994 HPA. TROPICAL STORM MORDREL IS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 46 KM/H... 29 MPH. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM MORDREL WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC AT 9:45PM HPT. FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN