TD02 (2146)/Past

Advisory 1

TCAD2 HPCOR 040925
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (4602) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
9 AM HPT MAY 4 2146... 6 AM PAX TIME... 3 AM LOCAL TIME

THE 7 A.M. RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SENT BACK INFORMATION CONFIRMING THE EXISTENCE
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT METS SEA. CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY
STRONG AT AROUND -60 CELSIUS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
T2.0 FROM AFLE AND UHWF... WHILE HDCW IS GOING AGGRESSIVE AT T2.5/35 KT. BASED ON
RECON INFORMATION... SETTING INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM TO 30 KT... MAKING
THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/15.

AT 9:00 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.9 WEST... OR ABOUT 1615 KM...
1010 MILES... SOUTHEAST OF FORMER EONWË, NEVERSHADOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 1003 HPA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT NEAR 28 KM/H... 17 MPH
... BUT THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW... ONLY NEAR 10 KT... AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FUTHER. AN
INCOMING FRONT FROM THE SW WILL HELP TO PUSH THE SYSTEM FORWARD... ALTHOUGH THE LOW
COULD END UP BEING ABSORBED INTO THE FRONT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT.

ALL MODELS CALL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO 30 DEG CELSIUS WATERS...
AND THE MSHPC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN ABOUT 48 HOURS FOR CERTAIN AREAS. A TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST
WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST... THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE IMPACTED
LATE IN THE FORECAST BY A WEAKENING SYSTEM... LIKELY STILL AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE FIRST NAME ON THE NAME LIST THIS SEASON IS 'MORDREL' SUBMITTED BY BOWIEKNIFE.
CONSULTATIONS WITH THE LOS PAISES LEJANOS CENTRO REGIO DEL METEOROLOGIA WILL BE HELD IF
NECESSARY TO DECIDE IF THE STORM SHOULD BE GIVEN A LOCAL NAME OFF THE CARITAS LIST. THE
FIRST NAME ON THE LOCAL CARITAS LIST IS 'ARIANA'. 

GRAPHICAL FORECAST AIDS ON THE SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC IF/WHEN TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE PUT INTO PLACE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 04/0900H
 INITIAL... 03.9 N 25.9 W... 30 KT 
04/2100H... 04.9 N 25.3 W... 30 KT 
05/0900H... 06.4 N 24.5 W... 35 KT 
05/2100H... 07.8 N 23.2 W... 35 KT 
06/0900H... 09.4 N 22.0 W... 40 KT 
07/0900H... 12.5 N 18.9 W... 45 KT 
08/0900H... 14.5 N 17.2 W... 40 KT... NEAR MODNA SUD

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 03.9 NORTH 25.9 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NNE AT 15 KT.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 1535 HPT.

FORECASTER CALTS

BPCT2 HPCOR 041000
DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 2 (4602)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À L'OREAN
BULLETIN À 09 HEURES HPT, 4 MAI 2146

DÉPRESSION TROPICALE 2/4602 [1003 HPA].

POSITION LE 4 MAI A 09 HEURES HPT: 03.9 NORD / 25.9 OUEST
(TROIS DEGRES NEUF NORD ET VINGT-CINQ DEGRES NEUF OUEST)

DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST À 15 KT

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (35 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 06.4N 24.5W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 09.4N 22.0W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 12.5N 18.9W
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR 14.5N 17.2W

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 16 HEURES HPT.