Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"

From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
Jump to: navigation, search
 
(20 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
 
{{Fakehurricane}}
 
{{Fakehurricane}}
−
{{Active storm|name=Subtropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon)
 
−
|category=storm|type=Subtropical storm
 
−
|time=0300 HPT
 
−
|date=May 6
 
−
|year=2146
 
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 45.3°N 26.6°E]<br/>About 1000 km (625 mi) west of Pearson Cliffs
 
−
|winds=75 km/h (45 mph)
 
−
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
−
|pressure=1000 hPa
 
−
|movement=West-northwest at 16 kt}}
 
 
----
 
----
−
  TCUP3 HPCOR 050815
+
  TCAD3 WHCO 070340
−
  TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
+
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 6
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
−
  8:15 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 6:15 AM PAX TIME... 8:45 AM LOCAL TIME
+
  3 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...
+
  ...EHECATL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...FAST LOSING TROPICALITY...THIS WILL
−
THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
+
  BE THE FINAL ADVISORY...
−
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AT
+
−
  8 AM HPT.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE TRACK OF EHECATL HAS WOBBLED TO THE EAST... POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
+
  STORM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER LAND...INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT
−
  WEAKENING HIGH. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RIDGE OVER THE GREAT FOLENISAN DESERT
+
  BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF...AND
−
  IS FURTHER INFLUENCING SUCH STEERING CURRENTS. IF THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUES
+
  T2.0 FROM HDCW...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. EHECATL IS EXPECTED
−
  OVER THE NEXT THREE TO SIX HOURS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN
+
  TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION...045/15.
−
GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA MAY BE DISCONTINUED.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AT THIS POINT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST COAST
+
  AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE
−
  OF POPULARFREEDOM INCLUDING PEARSON CLIFFS... BUT THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A
+
  INLAND OVER GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 47.5 NORTH LONGITUDE
−
  TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.
+
  28.1 EAST.
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEAT...
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
−
AT 8 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH COAST
+
  GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
−
OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... EXTENDING EASTWARDS TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
+
−
  BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
+
−
COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
+
−
THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT MAY 6.
+
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 HPA. THIS
−
  THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING
+
  VALUE WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
−
PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER JARVIS
+
  EHECATL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 26 KM/H...16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
−
----
+
  WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM
−
TCAD3 HPCOR 060345 CCA
+
STARTS TO GAIN IN FORWARD SPEED.
−
SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 002... CORRECTED
+
−
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
+
−
[[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
+
−
3 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME
+
 
   
 
   
−
  ...CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY TO INLUDE INTERMEDIATE WARNING...
+
  MOST MODELS HAVE THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND...
 +
POSSIBLY BECOMING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITHIN THREE DAYS.
 
   
 
   
−
  EHECATL IS MOVING AS EXPECTED ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS NOW
+
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
−
  ENCOUNTERING THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULP
+
  INITIAL TIME...07/0300H
−
  MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.  
+
  INITIAL...47.5 N 28.1 E... 30 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 +
  07/1500H...EXTRATROPICAL
 
   
 
   
−
  RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS DUE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AGAIN IN TWO HOURS'
+
  REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION...INLAND NEAR 47.5 NORTH 28.1 EAST. MAXIMUM
−
TIME. FOR NOW... EHECATL IS HELD AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS CONVECTIVE PULSES
+
  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA. SYSTEM IS
−
  NEAR THE CENTRE REMAIN INTERMITTENT... AND THERE ARE NO PERSISTENT AREAS OF
+
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KT.
−
  CONVECTION OVER THE APPARENT LLCC.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  0245 HPT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM T1.5... TO ST3.0. SINCE
+
  THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EHECATL.
−
THERE HAS BEEN NO APPARENT CHANGE IN STRUCTURE OF THE STORM... THERE IS NO
+
−
CHANGE MADE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY... WHICH IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS. INITIAL
+
−
SIX HOUR MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 345/16.
+
 
   
 
   
−
AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
+
  FORECASTER KRUGER
−
COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN ROCK SOUTH TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING
+
−
SCHIMPOL AND TYSON. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... THIS WARNING
+
−
COULD BE CANCELLED BY TODAY AFTERNOON.
+
−
+
−
AT 3 AM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
+
−
PENINSULA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS TO THE TOWN OF
+
−
DESINCO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
+
−
+
−
AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN
+
−
PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE
+
−
POST.
+
−
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
+
−
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
+
−
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
+
−
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
+
−
+
−
REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
+
−
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
+
−
+
−
THE LAND GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM
+
−
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WINDS FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOW BEEN
+
−
CANCELLED.
+
−
+
−
AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
+
−
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.6 EAST... ABOUT 1000 KM OR 625
+
−
MILES WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS POPULARFREEDOM... OR ABOUT 675 KM OR 425 MILES
+
−
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
+
−
NEAR 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
+
−
HPA. THE RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST MOTION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS
+
−
DESCRIBED BELOW.
+
−
+
−
UP TO 135 MM... 5.3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER LOX LAND ISLAND IN THE NEXT
+
−
18 HOURS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 155 MM... 6.1 INCHES. A FURTHER 130 TO
+
−
190 MM... 5.1 TO 7.5 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.
+
−
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN GULP MOUNTAINS.
+
−
+
−
NO CHANGE MADE TO WIND RADII FOR NOW... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
+
−
UP TO 420 KM... 260 MILES... FROM STORM CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
+
−
OF THE CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY.
+
−
+
−
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HIGH SOUTH OF THE GULPS.
+
−
WHAT THIS DOES TO THE FORECAST TRACK IS UNCERTAIN. WHETHER THE HIGH WILL NOW WEAKEN
+
−
FURTHER AND RETREAT... AND IF IT DOES WILL EHECATL FOLLOW THE HIGH OUT. FOR THE PAST
+
−
SIX HOURS EHECATL HAS TRACKED ALONG STEERING CURRENTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
+
−
PRESSURE GRADIENT. NOW THAT BOTH THE GRADIENT AND HIGH HAVE WEAKENED... THE FORECAST
+
−
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AND IN LOW CONFIDENCE.
+
−
+
−
BASED ON CONTINUITY... AM FOLLOWING PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IS. AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...
+
−
THIS FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO HUGE ERRORS... DEPENDING ON THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SOUTH
+
−
OF THE GULPS. BASED ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO
+
−
TRACK SLIGHTLY EAST OF WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. OVER THE
+
−
NEXT 12 HOURS EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TURN BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL
+
−
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT FOLENISAN DESERT BUILDS IN AND FORCES EHECATL
+
−
NORTHWARDS AND INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS
+
−
VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST... EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
+
−
AT AROUND 30 KM/H... 18 MPH. HOWEVER... IF THE FIRST SCENARIO VERIFIES...
+
−
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GULP
+
−
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM.
+
−
+
−
SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR.
+
−
BASED ON PREVIOUS FORECAST... NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR
+
−
SLIGHT FALLS IN PRESSURE AS IT UNDERGOES TROPICAL TRANSITION... BEFORE WEAKENING
+
−
CLOSE TO THE COAST. IF IT FOLLOWS THE HIGH OUT... THIS WILL BE WELL OFF AND IT
+
−
WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SOME FAVOURABLE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST
+
−
12-24 HOURS IN THE NOLAN SOUND... BEFORE RAPID WEAKENING AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
+
−
+
−
FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH... THE MODELS ARE RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE ON THIS ONE. UHWF
+
−
INITIALISES THE WEAKENING HIGH MOVING OUT AND EHECATL MOVING OUT WITH IT... AND
+
−
MAKES IT A 55-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. HDCW MEANWHILE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
+
−
CURRENT RSC/HPC FORECAST... MOVING WNW-WARDS BACK TOWARDS MAINLAND LIVERPOOL ENGLAND.
+
−
DUE TO THE CURRENT SITUATION... NEITHER SCENARIO CAN BE RULED OUT RIGHT NOW.
+
−
+
−
IN THE BELOW FORECAST... ALL POINTS ARE SIX-HOURLY... AND ARE EXTREMELY LOW-CONFIDENCE.
+
−
+
−
OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
+
−
INITIAL TIME... 06/0300H
+
−
  INITIAL... 45.3 N 26.6 E... 40 KT
+
−
06/0900H... 45.8 N 26.2 E... 40 KT
+
−
06/1500H... 46.4 N 25.7 E... 40 KT
+
−
06/2100H... 46.9 N 25.4 E... 35 KT
+
−
07/0300H... 47.6 N 25.2 E... 35 KT... NEAR LANDFALL
+
−
07/0900H... 48.4 N 25.2 E... 25 KT... DISSIPATING INLAND
+
−
07/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND
+
−
+
−
REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 45.3 NORTH 26.6 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
+
−
75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT.
+
−
+
−
THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT MAY 6.
+
−
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0700 HPT MAY 6.
+
−
THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING
+
−
PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO.
+
−
+
−
  FORECASTER JARVIS/HUNTER
+
 
----
 
----
−
  TCTW03 FOLN 060345
+
  TCTW03 FOLN 070340
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
−
  ISSUED 0345 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
+
[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE]] FOLENISA
−
  ACTIVE TIME:        0300 21460506
+
  ISSUED 0340 HPT MAY 7 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
−
  TROP CYC CENTRE:   FOLENISA/OREAN
+
  ACTIVE TIME:        0300HPT MAY 7 2146
−
  TROP CYC:           EHECATL
+
  WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
−
  WARNING NR:        2
+
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:   EHECATL
−
  POSITION:          45.3N 26.6E
+
  WARNING NR:        6
−
  ACCURACY:          25NM
+
  POSITION:          47.5N 28.1E...INLAND
−
  MOVEMENT:          WNW 16KT
+
  ACCURACY:          45NM
−
  CENT PRES:          1000HPA
+
  MOVEMENT:          NE 15KT
−
  MAX WIND:          40KT
+
  CENT PRES:          1001HPA
−
  MAX GUST:          50KT
+
  MAX WIND:          30KT
−
  FCST 12HR:         46.4N 25.7E
+
  MAX GUST:          VARIABLE
−
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
+
  FCST 12HR PSTN:     48.5N 29.4E...EXTRATROPICAL
−
  NXT WRN:           0900 21460506=
+
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT EXTRATROPICAL
 +
  NEXT WARNING AT:   NO FURTHER WARNINGS=
 
----
 
----
−
  TCLX1 LLWO 060400
+
  WXTC01 KBDP 070710
−
  LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 2 FOR SYSTEM 4603
+
  TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER FOUR
−
  SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL
+
  BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL
−
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL
+
  CC MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
−
  ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
+
  ISSUED AT 7:40 AM LOCAL TIME...0710 HPT MAY 7 2146
−
  ISSUED AT 04:30 AM LST MAY 6 2145
+
IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
 +
 +
CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES...
 +
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... DISCONTINUED
 +
SLEET WARNING... DISCONTINUED
 +
AVALANCHE ADVISORY... DISCONTINUED
 +
FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7.
 +
INLAND GALE WATCH UNTIL 7 PM HPT MAY 7
 
   
 
   
−
  ADVISORY NR 2
+
  ...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING ... SLEET WARNING ... AVALANCHE ADVISORY
−
SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.
+
  DISCONTINUED...
−
INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 06/0330 LST OR 3 AM HPT...
+
−
POSITION ACCURATE TO 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +45.3 LON +26.6.
+
−
MAX WINDS NEAR CENTRE REMAIN 75 KM/H OR 40 KNOTS AND CURRENT
+
−
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA. MOVEMENT FORECAST IS
+
−
  PROBLEMATIC... REFER TO RSC/HPC DISCUSSION TCAD3 HPCOR FOR MORE
+
−
INFORMATION.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  WIND RADII ARE UNCHANGED SO DESPITE EPSILON MOVING AWAY FROM THE
+
  A FLASH FLOOD WARNING... REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
−
ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE STILL ADVISED TO AVOID HIGH GROUND AND THE
+
  UNTIL 1:30 PM LOCAL LATER TODAY.
−
SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SQUALLY GUSTS CAN REACH 110 KM/H
+
−
  AT HIGH GROUND.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AS FOLLOWS...
+
  THE INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN INLAND
−
COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTHERN ROCK (+45.1/+24.5) EAST AND
+
  GALE WATCH... IN EFFECT UNTIL 7:30 PM TONIGHT.
−
  SOUTH TO CORNER BASE (+44.2/+24.9) INCLUDING SCHIMPOL.
+
−
INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELLED.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECAST FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON...
+
  GUSTS ABOVE 34 KT... GALE FORCE... ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EXTRATROPICAL
−
EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO HUGE ERROR...
+
  REMNANTS OF THE STORM MOVE OUT TO SEA.
−
  AT 06/0930H 45.8 NORTH 26.2 EAST WITHIN 45 NM. 40 KT 997 HPA.
+
−
AT 06/1530H 46.3 NORTH 25.8 EAST WITHIN 70 NM. 40 KT 997 HPA.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEAT REMARKS...
+
  A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. RAINFALL IS DIMINISHING... BUT THE THREAT
−
SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND BUT GUSTS OF
+
  OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS. IF NO FLASH FLOODS OCCUR BY 1 PM HPT... THIS WARNING
−
  UP TO 110 KM/H POSSIBLE AT HIGH GROUND AND AT SEA. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED
+
  WILL BE DISCONTINUED.
−
  TO AVOID THE SEA AND HIGH GROUND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 10:30 AM LST.
+
  EHECATL NOW FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL
−
THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3
+
  BULLETIN.
−
  HPCOR.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN
+
  SWC MTN

Latest revision as of 00:30, 1 September 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. 
TCAD3 WHCO 070340
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 6
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME

...EHECATL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...FAST LOSING TROPICALITY...THIS WILL
BE THE FINAL ADVISORY...

STORM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER LAND...INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF...AND
T2.0 FROM HDCW...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. EHECATL IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION...045/15.

AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE
INLAND OVER GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 47.5 NORTH LONGITUDE
28.1 EAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 HPA. THIS
VALUE WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

EHECATL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 26 KM/H...16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM
STARTS TO GAIN IN FORWARD SPEED.

MOST MODELS HAVE THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND...
POSSIBLY BECOMING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITHIN THREE DAYS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...07/0300H
 INITIAL...47.5 N 28.1 E... 30 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
07/1500H...EXTRATROPICAL

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION...INLAND NEAR 47.5 NORTH 28.1 EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA. SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KT.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EHECATL.

FORECASTER KRUGER

TCTW03 FOLN 070340
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA
ISSUED 0340 HPT MAY 7 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0300HPT MAY 7 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   EHECATL
WARNING NR:         6
POSITION:           47.5N 28.1E...INLAND
ACCURACY:           45NM
MOVEMENT:           NE 15KT
CENT PRES:          1001HPA
MAX WIND:           30KT
MAX GUST:           VARIABLE
FCST 12HR PSTN:     48.5N 29.4E...EXTRATROPICAL
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT EXTRATROPICAL
NEXT WARNING AT:    NO FURTHER WARNINGS=

WXTC01 KBDP 070710
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER FOUR
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL
CC MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
ISSUED AT 7:40 AM LOCAL TIME...0710 HPT MAY 7 2146
IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA

CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES...
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... DISCONTINUED
SLEET WARNING... DISCONTINUED
AVALANCHE ADVISORY... DISCONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7.
INLAND GALE WATCH UNTIL 7 PM HPT MAY 7

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING ... SLEET WARNING ... AVALANCHE ADVISORY
DISCONTINUED...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING... REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
UNTIL 1:30 PM LOCAL LATER TODAY.

THE INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN INLAND
GALE WATCH... IN EFFECT UNTIL 7:30 PM TONIGHT.

GUSTS ABOVE 34 KT... GALE FORCE... ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANTS OF THE STORM MOVE OUT TO SEA.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. RAINFALL IS DIMINISHING... BUT THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS. IF NO FLASH FLOODS OCCUR BY 1 PM HPT... THIS WARNING
WILL BE DISCONTINUED.

EHECATL NOW FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL
BULLETIN.

SWC MTN
Retrieved from "http://archive.nswiki.org/index.php?title=TD03_(2146)&oldid=315782"