Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"

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{{Fakehurricane}}
 
{{Fakehurricane}}
−
{{Active storm|name=Severe Tropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon)
 
−
|category=intense|type=Severe tropical storm
 
−
|time=0900 HPT
 
−
|date=May 6
 
−
|year=2146
 
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 45.8°N 26.7°E]<br/>About 385 km (240 mi) southwest of Borleai Defence, Gulp Mountain Peninsula
 
−
|winds=95 km/h (60 mph)
 
−
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
−
|pressure=990 hPa
 
−
|movement=North-northeast at 19 kt}}
 
 
----
 
----
−
  TCUP3 HPCOR 061235
+
  TCAD3 WHCO 070340
−
  SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
+
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 6
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
−
  12:35 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 10:35 AM PAX TIME... 1:05 PM LOCAL TIME
+
  3 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME
 
   
 
   
−
  AS OF 12:30 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF DESINCO TO MOUNTAIN BAY
+
  ...EHECATL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...FAST LOSING TROPICALITY...THIS WILL
−
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN
+
  BE THE FINAL ADVISORY...
−
EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
+
−
  FURTHER NORTH FROM BORLEAI POINT EAST TO THE STATE LINE WITH THE NORTHEAST REGION.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MOUNTAIN VALLEY EAST TO THE NORTHEAST REGION STATE
+
  STORM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER LAND...INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT
−
  LINE MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
+
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF...AND
 +
  T2.0 FROM HDCW...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. EHECATL IS EXPECTED
 +
TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION...045/15.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER JARVIS
+
  AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE
−
----
+
  INLAND OVER GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 47.5 NORTH LONGITUDE
−
TCIA3 HPCOR 061225
+
  28.1 EAST.
−
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 3A
+
−
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
+
−
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
+
−
12 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 10 AM PAX TIME... 12:30 PM LOCAL TIME
+
 
   
 
   
−
  ...EHECATL STILL ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL NEAR/OVER BORLEAI DEFENCE POST...
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
 +
GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 12 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHWEST POPULARFREEDOM IS BEING
+
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 HPA. THIS
−
  DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED LIKELY FOR THE
+
  VALUE WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
−
AREA.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
+
  EHECATL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 26 KM/H...16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
−
PENINSULA FROM MOUNTAIN BAY EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST... THE EASTERN EDGE OF
+
  WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM
−
  THE BORLEAI POST... AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM
+
  STARTS TO GAIN IN FORWARD SPEED.
−
  DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULP
+
  MOST MODELS HAVE THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND...
−
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... FROM THE NORTHEAST REGION STATE LINE SOUTH TO BORLEAI
+
  POSSIBLY BECOMING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITHIN THREE DAYS.
−
  POINT EAST.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
+
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
−
  MAY BE PRESENTLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... AND ARE EXPECTED TO
+
  INITIAL TIME...07/0300H
−
  CONTINUE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
+
  INITIAL...47.5 N 28.1 E... 30 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 +
  07/1500H...EXTRATROPICAL
 
   
 
   
−
  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
+
  REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION...INLAND NEAR 47.5 NORTH 28.1 EAST. MAXIMUM
−
  THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
+
  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA. SYSTEM IS
 +
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KT.
 
   
 
   
−
  FOR FURTHER INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
+
  THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EHECATL.
−
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE.
+
−
+
−
IN THIS CASE... A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
+
−
IN THE WATCH AREA IN 12 TO 24 HOURS... OR HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
+
−
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
+
−
+
−
AT 12 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS LOCATED NEAR
+
−
LATITUDE 46.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.9 EAST... ABOUT 320 KM OR 200 MILES SOUTH-
+
−
SOUTHWEST OF BORLEAI POINT WEST.
+
−
+
−
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...
+
−
POSSIBLY TO HURRICANE FORCE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE GULP MOUNTAINS.
+
−
+
−
EHECATL REMAINS ON A GENERALLY NORTHEAST-BY-NORTH TRACK NEAR 35 KM/H OR 22 MPH.
+
−
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... EHECATL WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR OR OVER THE BORLEAI
+
−
DEFENCE POST WITHIN 12 HOURS.
+
−
+
−
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE
+
−
CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT...
+
−
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST AT BORLEAI POINT
+
−
WEST RECENTLY RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 KM/H... 42 MPH...
+
−
AND A GUST TO 105 KM/H... 65 MPH. AN AFLE/AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
+
−
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.
+
−
+
−
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA... 29.24 INCHES OF MERCURY... 74.26 CM HG.
+
−
+
−
BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP
+
−
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
+
−
OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. BORLEAI
+
−
DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO ONE INCH HAS ALREADY FALLEN
+
−
IN THE LAST THREE HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 8 INCHES.
+
−
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
+
−
MUDSLIDES... OR AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
+
−
+
−
REPEATING THE 12 PM POSITION... 46.1 NORTH 26.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
+
−
NEAR 95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST-
+
−
BY-NORTH AT 19 KT.
+
−
+
−
THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 6.
+
−
+
−
FORECASTER TIMMS/JARVIS
+
 
   
 
   
 +
FORECASTER KRUGER
 
----
 
----
−
  TCAD3 HPCOR 060940 CCA
+
  TCTW03 FOLN 070340
−
  SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 3
+
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
−
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
+
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE]] FOLENISA
−
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
+
  ISSUED 0340 HPT MAY 7 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
−
  9 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME
+
  ACTIVE TIME:        0300HPT MAY 7 2146
 +
WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE:  EHECATL
 +
WARNING NR:        6
 +
POSITION:          47.5N 28.1E...INLAND
 +
ACCURACY:          45NM
 +
MOVEMENT:          NE 15KT
 +
CENT PRES:          1001HPA
 +
MAX WIND:          30KT
 +
MAX GUST:          VARIABLE
 +
FCST 12HR PSTN:    48.5N 29.4E...EXTRATROPICAL
 +
FCST 12HR WINDS:   35KT EXTRATROPICAL
 +
NEXT WARNING AT:    NO FURTHER WARNINGS=
 +
----
 +
WXTC01 KBDP 070710
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER FOUR
 +
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL
 +
CC MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
 +
ISSUED AT 7:40 AM LOCAL TIME...0710 HPT MAY 7 2146
 +
IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
 
   
 
   
−
  ...EHECATL NOW A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM... HAS DEVIATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
+
  CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES...
−
  TRACK...
+
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... DISCONTINUED
 +
  SLEET WARNING... DISCONTINUED
 +
AVALANCHE ADVISORY... DISCONTINUED
 +
FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7.
 +
INLAND GALE WATCH UNTIL 7 PM HPT MAY 7
 
   
 
   
−
  THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA NOW MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND HAS
+
  ...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING ... SLEET WARNING ... AVALANCHE ADVISORY
−
LEFT A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING CURRENTS TO THE EAST OF EHECATL. WITH THE
+
  DISCONTINUED...
−
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER FROM THE MAINLAND... EHECATL
+
−
SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING WITH A SHIFT EAST. THE OLD FORECAST TRACK IS NOW
+
−
  CONSIDERED OUTDATED AND UNLIKELY.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM. INITIAL
+
  A FLASH FLOOD WARNING... REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
−
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM
+
  UNTIL 1:30 PM LOCAL LATER TODAY.
−
AFLE AND HDCW AS WELL AS A DROPSONDE OBSERVATION FROM AROUND 0830 HPT WHICH
+
−
SUGGESTED A 993 HPA PRESSURE WITH 47 KT WINDS. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS
+
−
OF STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SINCE THEN... ABOUT 58-62 KT... HAVE SET INITIAL
+
−
INTENSITY A BIT HIGHER THAN SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
+
−
+
−
INITIAL MOTION IS BEST ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 025/19.
+
−
+
−
AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS
+
−
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER
+
−
EAST TO MOUNTAIN BAY. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY HAS ALSO INFORMED
+
−
THE MSHPC THAT AT 9 AM HPT... ALL WARNINGS FOR LOX LAND ISLAND AND ITS WATERS HAVE
+
−
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
+
−
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
+
−
PENINSULA FROM MOUNTAIN BAY EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE
+
−
  POST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO THE EASTERN
+
−
EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST.
+
−
+
−
AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DECLARED
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA... NORTHWARD TO THE
+
−
STATE BORDER WITH THE NORTHEAST REGION.
+
−
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM
+
−
INCLUDING THE CITY OF PEARSON CLIFFS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY
+
−
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK.
+
−
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
+
−
THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
+
−
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
+
−
+
−
REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
+
−
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
+
−
+
−
AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
+
−
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.7 EAST... ABOUT 385 KM OR 240
+
−
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST.
+
−
+
−
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH
+
−
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
+
−
OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH.
+
−
+
−
EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS
+
−
FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN
+
−
12-24 HOURS.
+
−
+
−
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE
+
−
CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT...
+
−
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY.
+
−
+
−
THE EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS 990 HPA.
+
−
+
−
BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP
+
−
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
+
−
OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. AT LOWER
+
−
ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
+
−
OR AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
+
−
+
−
ALL MODELS ARE DISREGARDED AS THEY STILL SHOW THE STORM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST.
+
−
FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS MOVING INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNDER
+
−
INFLUENCE OF THE NOW-DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN
+
−
SOUND... AS WELL AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
+
−
IS EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH EHECATL'S WIND GUSTS COULD REACH WELL ABOVE HURRICANE
+
−
STRENGTH.
+
−
+
−
OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
+
−
INITIAL TIME... 06/0900H
+
−
  INITIAL... 45.8 N 26.7 E... 50 KT <!-- 06/1500H... 46.4 N 27.2 E... 50 KT -->
+
−
06/2100H... 46.7 N 27.4 E... 45 KT...NEAR LANDFALL <!-- 07/0300H... 47.5 N 27.7 E... 30 KT...INLAND -->
+
−
07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
+
−
07/2100H...EXTRATROPICAL
+
−
+
−
REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 45.8 NORTH 26.7 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
+
−
95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 19 KT.
+
−
+
−
THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 6.
+
−
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 HPT MAY 6.
+
−
THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING
+
−
PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO.
+
−
+
−
FORECASTER HUNTER/RINDLI
+
−
----
+
−
TCTW03 FOLN 060945
+
−
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
+
−
ISSUED 0945 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
+
−
ACTIVE TIME:        0900 21460506
+
−
TROP CYC CENTRE:    FOLENISA/OREAN
+
−
TROP CYC:          EHECATL
+
−
WARNING NR:        3
+
−
POSITION:          45.8N 26.7E
+
−
ACCURACY:          25NM
+
−
MOVEMENT:          ENE 19KT
+
−
CENT PRES:          990HPA
+
−
MAX WIND:          50KT
+
−
MAX GUST:          60KT
+
−
FCST 12HR:          46.7N 27.4E
+
−
FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
+
−
NXT WRN:            1500 21460506=
+
−
----
+
−
TCLX1 LLWO 061300
+
−
LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 4 FOR SYSTEM 4603
+
−
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL
+
−
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL
+
−
ISSUED AT 1:30 PM LST MAY 6 2145
+
 
   
 
   
−
  ADVISORY NR 4
+
  THE INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN INLAND
−
  THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE 4:30 PM ADVISORY.
+
  GALE WATCH... IN EFFECT UNTIL 7:30 PM TONIGHT.
−
THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY.
+
−
TROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL NO LONGER POSES ANY THREAT TO
+
−
THE ISLAND OR ITS TERRITORIAL WATERS. IT IS SET TO MAKE LANDFALL
+
−
ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 12 HOURS.  
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THERE ARE NO ACTIVE LOX LAND ISLAND WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
+
  GUSTS ABOVE 34 KT... GALE FORCE... ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EXTRATROPICAL
 +
REMNANTS OF THE STORM MOVE OUT TO SEA.
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEAT REMARKS...
+
  A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. RAINFALL IS DIMINISHING... BUT THE THREAT
−
  TROPICAL STORM EPSILON EXITING FORECAST WARNING AREA... LANDFALL
+
  OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS. IF NO FLASH FLOODS OCCUR BY 1 PM HPT... THIS WARNING
−
ON GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.
+
  WILL BE DISCONTINUED.
−
  THIS FINAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE 4:30 PM PUBLIC BULLETIN.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THIS IS THE FINAL LLIWO PUBLIC BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO
+
  EHECATL NOW FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL
−
  MSHPC ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3
+
  BULLETIN.
−
HPCOR.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER NOBLE
+
  SWC MTN

Latest revision as of 00:30, 1 September 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. 
TCAD3 WHCO 070340
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 6
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME

...EHECATL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...FAST LOSING TROPICALITY...THIS WILL
BE THE FINAL ADVISORY...

STORM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER LAND...INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF...AND
T2.0 FROM HDCW...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. EHECATL IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION...045/15.

AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE
INLAND OVER GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 47.5 NORTH LONGITUDE
28.1 EAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 HPA. THIS
VALUE WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

EHECATL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 26 KM/H...16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM
STARTS TO GAIN IN FORWARD SPEED.

MOST MODELS HAVE THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND...
POSSIBLY BECOMING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITHIN THREE DAYS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...07/0300H
 INITIAL...47.5 N 28.1 E... 30 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
07/1500H...EXTRATROPICAL

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION...INLAND NEAR 47.5 NORTH 28.1 EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA. SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KT.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EHECATL.

FORECASTER KRUGER

TCTW03 FOLN 070340
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA
ISSUED 0340 HPT MAY 7 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0300HPT MAY 7 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   EHECATL
WARNING NR:         6
POSITION:           47.5N 28.1E...INLAND
ACCURACY:           45NM
MOVEMENT:           NE 15KT
CENT PRES:          1001HPA
MAX WIND:           30KT
MAX GUST:           VARIABLE
FCST 12HR PSTN:     48.5N 29.4E...EXTRATROPICAL
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT EXTRATROPICAL
NEXT WARNING AT:    NO FURTHER WARNINGS=

WXTC01 KBDP 070710
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER FOUR
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL
CC MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
ISSUED AT 7:40 AM LOCAL TIME...0710 HPT MAY 7 2146
IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA

CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES...
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... DISCONTINUED
SLEET WARNING... DISCONTINUED
AVALANCHE ADVISORY... DISCONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7.
INLAND GALE WATCH UNTIL 7 PM HPT MAY 7

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING ... SLEET WARNING ... AVALANCHE ADVISORY
DISCONTINUED...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING... REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
UNTIL 1:30 PM LOCAL LATER TODAY.

THE INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN INLAND
GALE WATCH... IN EFFECT UNTIL 7:30 PM TONIGHT.

GUSTS ABOVE 34 KT... GALE FORCE... ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANTS OF THE STORM MOVE OUT TO SEA.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. RAINFALL IS DIMINISHING... BUT THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS. IF NO FLASH FLOODS OCCUR BY 1 PM HPT... THIS WARNING
WILL BE DISCONTINUED.

EHECATL NOW FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL
BULLETIN.

SWC MTN
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