Difference between revisions of "TD03 (2146)"

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{{Fakehurricane}}
 
{{Fakehurricane}}
−
{{Active storm|name=Severe Tropical Storm Ehecatl (Epsilon)
 
−
|category=intense|type=Severe tropical storm
 
−
|time=0900 HPT
 
−
|date=May 6
 
−
|year=2146
 
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 45.8°N 26.7°E]<br/>About 385 km (240 mi) southwest of Borleai Defence, Gulp Mountain Peninsula
 
−
|winds=95 km/h (60 mph)
 
−
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
−
|pressure=990 hPa
 
−
|movement=North-northeast at 19 kt}}
 
 
----
 
----
−
  TCUP3 WHCO 062105
+
  TCAD3 WHCO 070340
−
  TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
+
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 6
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
 
  [[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
−
  9 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME
+
  3 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME
 
   
 
   
−
  ...TROPICAL STORM EHECATL MAKES LANDFALL EAST OF BORLEAI POINT WEST...
+
  ...EHECATL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...FAST LOSING TROPICALITY...THIS WILL
 +
BE THE FINAL ADVISORY...
 
   
 
   
−
  REPORTS FROM THE GROUND AT THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL
+
  STORM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER LAND...INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT
−
  STORM EHECATL MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 10 TO 15 MINUTES AGO NEAR BORLEAI POINT
+
  BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF...AND
−
  WEST... AS A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM.
+
T2.0 FROM HDCW...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. EHECATL IS EXPECTED
 +
  TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION...045/15.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE
+
  AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE
−
  INLAND OVER THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR 46.9 N 27.6 E. THIS POSITION IS
+
  INLAND OVER GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 47.5 NORTH LONGITUDE
−
  EXTRAPOLATED FROM FORECAST STORM MOVEMENT AND GROUND REPORTS.
+
  28.1 EAST.
 
   
 
   
−
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
−
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. THERE IS ALSO
+
GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
−
A HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
+
−
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT... OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY OVER LAND AS
+
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 HPA. THIS
−
  IT STARTS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
+
  VALUE WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY BEING PREPARED WITH THE LATEST
+
  EHECATL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 26 KM/H...16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
−
  INFORMATION... AND WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 10 PM HPT.
+
  WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM
 +
STARTS TO GAIN IN FORWARD SPEED.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER HUNTER
+
  MOST MODELS HAVE THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND...
−
 
+
POSSIBLY BECOMING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITHIN THREE DAYS.
−
----
+
−
TCIA3 WHCO 061835
+
−
TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 4A
+
−
[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
+
−
[[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
+
−
6 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME... 6:30 PM LOCAL TIME
+
 
   
 
   
−
  ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SYSTEM FINDS WEAKER STORM...
+
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
 +
INITIAL TIME...07/0300H
 +
  INITIAL...47.5 N 28.1 E... 30 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 +
07/1500H...EXTRATROPICAL
 
   
 
   
−
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP
+
  REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION...INLAND NEAR 47.5 NORTH 28.1 EAST. MAXIMUM
−
  MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST.
+
  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA. SYSTEM IS
 +
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KT.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 6 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
+
  THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EHECATL.
−
COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
+
 
   
 
   
−
REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
+
  FORECASTER KRUGER
−
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
+
−
+
−
AT 6 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
+
−
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 27.4 EAST... ABOUT 130 KM OR 80
+
−
MILES SOUTH OF BORLEAI POINT WEST.
+
−
+
−
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WERE NEAR 85 KM/H...
+
−
50 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
+
−
ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS.
+
−
+
−
EHECATL IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... WITH AN EAST-NORTHEAST
+
−
MOTION EXPECTED IN AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS. ON THIS CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEAST
+
−
MOVEMENT... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 6 HOURS... OR AS SOON AS BY THE NEXT
+
−
ADVISORY.
+
−
+
−
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 KM... 215 MILES... FROM THE
+
−
CENTRE OF THE STORM. AT AROUND 1805 HPT... AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST
+
−
AT BORLEAI POINT WEST RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 79 KM/H...
+
−
49 MPH... AND A GUST TO 109 KM/H... 68 MPH.
+
−
+
−
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
+
−
WAS 992 HPA.
+
−
+
−
BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
+
−
THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM
+
−
OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE.
+
−
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO 75 MM HAS FALLEN IN THE
+
−
LAST NINE HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 200 MM... 8 INCHES.
+
−
+
−
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
+
−
MUDSLIDES... AND AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONE MINOR AVALANCHE WAS REPORTED
+
−
IN THE GULPS EARLIER TODAY... TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.
+
−
+
−
REPEAT 6 PM HPT POSITION... 46.6 N 27.4 E... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H.
+
−
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS 992 HPA... AND EHECATL IS MOVING GENERALLY
+
−
NORTHEAST. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS.
+
−
+
−
THIS IS THE FINAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT COMPLETE
+
−
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:40 PM HPT. A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... UNDER HEADER
+
−
TCUP3 WHCO... WILL BE ISSUED UPON LANDFALL.
+
−
+
−
  FORECASTER HUNTER
+
−
 
+
 
----
 
----
−
TCAD3 HPCOR 061540 CCA
+
  TCTW03 FOLN 070340
−
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 4...CORRECTED
+
−
[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
+
−
[[Orean|OREAN]], [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
+
−
3 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME
+
−
+
−
...CORRECTED INITIAL 24 HOUR MOTION VECTOR TO 19 KT FROM 35 KT...
+
−
+
−
...SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL REMAINS ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL SOON...
+
−
+
−
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO... WITH ANOTHER
+
−
FLIGHT DUE IN IN ABOUT AN HOUR. THE HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS FOUND DURING THAT FLIGHT
+
−
WERE UP TO 65 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL... WHILE A MANUAL DROPSONDE READING RECORDED
+
−
49 KT WINDS AT AROUND 1245 HPT WHEN THE PLANE WAS ABOUT TO LEAVE THE STORM.
+
−
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE
+
−
... AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW CLEAR 50-KNOT WIND VECTORS. INITIAL INTENSITY
+
−
IS RETAINED AT 50 KT. INITIAL 24-HOUR MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE NORTHEASTWARDS...
+
−
SO 045/19. SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT COULD BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OR EAST.
+
−
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST FROM
+
−
DESINCO EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
+
−
THIS STRETCH OF COAST.
+
−
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA COAST FROM
+
−
MOUNTAIN VALLEY EAST SOUTHWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST.
+
−
+
−
REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND
+
−
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
+
−
+
−
AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
+
−
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 27.2 EAST... ABOUT 225 KM OR 140
+
−
MILES SOUTH OF BORLEAI POINT WEST.
+
−
+
−
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WERE NEAR 95 KM/H...
+
−
60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER
+
−
ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH.
+
−
+
−
GENERAL 24-HOUR TRENDS SUGGEST EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
+
−
35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE
+
−
GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 9 HOURS.
+
−
+
−
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE
+
−
CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT...
+
−
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. AT AROUND 1140 HPT... AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST
+
−
AT BORLEAI POINT WEST RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 KM/H...
+
−
42 MPH... AND A GUST TO 105 KM/H... 65 MPH.
+
−
+
−
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
+
−
WAS 990 HPA.
+
−
+
−
BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
+
−
THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM
+
−
OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE.
+
−
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO 45 MM FELL IN THE
+
−
LAST SIX HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 180 MM... 7 INCHES.
+
−
+
−
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
+
−
MUDSLIDES... AND AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN AVALANCHE WAS CONFIRMED
+
−
TO HAVE OCCURRED AROUND 1348 LOCAL TIME... 1318 HPT... EARLIER TODAY.
+
−
+
−
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.
+
−
+
−
OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
+
−
INITIAL TIME... 06/1500H
+
−
  INITIAL... 46.4 N 27.2 E... 50 KT <!-- 06/2100H... 46.7 N 27.4 E... 45 KT...NEAR LANDFALL -->
+
−
07/0300H... 47.5 N 27.7 E... 30 KT...INLAND <!-- 07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL -->
+
−
07/1500H... 48.6 N 29.4 E... 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
+
−
08/0300H...EXTRATROPICAL
+
−
+
−
REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 46.4 NORTH 27.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
+
−
95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT.
+
−
+
−
THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT MAY 6.
+
−
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1900 HPT MAY 6.
+
−
+
−
FORECASTER RINDLI
+
−
----
+
−
  TCTW03 FOLN 061545
+
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
−
  ISSUED 1545 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
+
[[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE]] FOLENISA
−
  ACTIVE TIME:        1500 21460506
+
  ISSUED 0340 HPT MAY 7 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
−
  TROP CYC CENTRE:   FOLENISA/OREAN
+
  ACTIVE TIME:        0300HPT MAY 7 2146
−
  TROP CYC:           EHECATL
+
  WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
−
  WARNING NR:        4
+
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:   EHECATL
−
  POSITION:          46.4N 27.2E
+
  WARNING NR:        6
−
  ACCURACY:          25NM
+
  POSITION:          47.5N 28.1E...INLAND
−
  MOVEMENT:          NE 19KT
+
  ACCURACY:          45NM
−
  CENT PRES:          990HPA
+
  MOVEMENT:          NE 15KT
−
  MAX WIND:          50KT
+
  CENT PRES:          1001HPA
−
  MAX GUST:          60KT
+
  MAX WIND:          30KT
−
  FCST 12HR:         47.5N 27.7E...INLAND
+
  MAX GUST:          VARIABLE
−
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT GUSTS VARIABLE
+
  FCST 12HR PSTN:     48.5N 29.4E...EXTRATROPICAL
−
  NXT WRN:           2100 21460506=
+
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT EXTRATROPICAL
 +
  NEXT WARNING AT:   NO FURTHER WARNINGS=
 
----
 
----
−
  WXTC01 KBDP 061850
+
  WXTC01 KBDP 070710
−
  TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER TWO
+
  TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER FOUR
 
  BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL
 
  BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL
 
  CC MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
 
  CC MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
−
  ISSUED AT 7:20 PM LOCAL TIME... 1850 HPT MAY 6 2146
+
  ISSUED AT 7:40 AM LOCAL TIME...0710 HPT MAY 7 2146
 
  IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
 
  IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
 
   
 
   
 
  CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES...
 
  CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES...
−
  INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7
+
  INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... DISCONTINUED
−
AVALANCHE ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7
+
  SLEET WARNING... DISCONTINUED
−
FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7
+
  AVALANCHE ADVISORY... DISCONTINUED
−
  SLEET WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7
+
  FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7.
−
+
  INLAND GALE WATCH UNTIL 7 PM HPT MAY 7
−
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... FLASH FLOOD WARNING... AND SLEET WARNING
+
−
  ALL EXTENDED TO 7:30 AM LOCAL TIME TOMORROW... AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY
+
−
  REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:30 PM TOMORROW...
+
−
   
+
−
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BORLEAI POINT EAST NORTH TO VALLEY EAST
+
−
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. GUSTS FROM TROPICAL STORM
+
  ...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING ... SLEET WARNING ... AVALANCHE ADVISORY
−
EHECATL TO WELL ABOVE 65 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA...
+
  DISCONTINUED...
−
  ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. UP TO 255 MM... OF PRECIPITATION...
+
  A FLASH FLOOD WARNING... REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
−
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... WILL FALL ACROSS
+
  UNTIL 1:30 PM LOCAL LATER TODAY.
−
THE EASTERN PENINSULA. MELTING SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE
+
−
TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. IF IN A WARNING AREA... BE READY
+
−
  TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE IF NECESSARY.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. AN AVALANCHE OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY...
+
  THE INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN INLAND
−
  WITH NO CASUALTIES AND LIGHT DAMAGE... BUT FURTHER AVALANCHES COULD OCCUR
+
  GALE WATCH... IN EFFECT UNTIL 7:30 PM TONIGHT.
−
AT ANY TIME. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS...
+
−
NO MATTER HOW HIGH... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  A SLEET WARNING IS IN EFFECT... RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MIXED WITH ICE
+
  GUSTS ABOVE 34 KT... GALE FORCE... ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EXTRATROPICAL
−
FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS WILL MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY
+
  REMNANTS OF THE STORM MOVE OUT TO SEA.
−
  AND VISIBILITY VERY POOR. AVOID DRIVING.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ABOUT THREE HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL OVER THE
+
  A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. RAINFALL IS DIMINISHING... BUT THE THREAT
−
BDP. BASE TC ALERT IS RED. EHECATL HAS WEAKENED... BUT STILL PACKS QUITE
+
  OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS. IF NO FLASH FLOODS OCCUR BY 1 PM HPT... THIS WARNING
−
THE PUNCH... WITH WIND GUSTS TO UP TO 200 KM/H POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
+
  WILL BE DISCONTINUED.
−
  AN AVALANCHE OCCURRED EARLIER... WITH NO DEATHS OR INJURIES... AND MINOR
+
−
DAMAGE... IN THE MIDDLE GULPS WELL NORTHWEST OF STORM CENTRE. THIS INDICATES
+
−
  THE REACH OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM... ALTHOUGH RADIUS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS HAS
+
−
DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE STORM WILL TAKE ABOUT NINE HOURS TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
+
−
PENINSULA... AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 1:30 AM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN
+
  EHECATL NOW FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL
−
  THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS.
+
  BULLETIN.
 
   
 
   
 
  SWC MTN
 
  SWC MTN

Latest revision as of 00:30, 1 September 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. 
TCAD3 WHCO 070340
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 6
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS
3 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME

...EHECATL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...FAST LOSING TROPICALITY...THIS WILL
BE THE FINAL ADVISORY...

STORM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER LAND...INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM AFLE AND UHWF...AND
T2.0 FROM HDCW...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. EHECATL IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION...045/15.

AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE
INLAND OVER GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA NEAR LATITUDE 47.5 NORTH LONGITUDE
28.1 EAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 HPA. THIS
VALUE WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

EHECATL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 26 KM/H...16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM
STARTS TO GAIN IN FORWARD SPEED.

MOST MODELS HAVE THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND...
POSSIBLY BECOMING A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITHIN THREE DAYS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...07/0300H
 INITIAL...47.5 N 28.1 E... 30 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
07/1500H...EXTRATROPICAL

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION...INLAND NEAR 47.5 NORTH 28.1 EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA. SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KT.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EHECATL.

FORECASTER KRUGER

TCTW03 FOLN 070340
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA
ISSUED 0340 HPT MAY 7 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ
ACTIVE TIME:        0300HPT MAY 7 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   EHECATL
WARNING NR:         6
POSITION:           47.5N 28.1E...INLAND
ACCURACY:           45NM
MOVEMENT:           NE 15KT
CENT PRES:          1001HPA
MAX WIND:           30KT
MAX GUST:           VARIABLE
FCST 12HR PSTN:     48.5N 29.4E...EXTRATROPICAL
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT EXTRATROPICAL
NEXT WARNING AT:    NO FURTHER WARNINGS=

WXTC01 KBDP 070710
TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER FOUR
BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL
CC MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA
ISSUED AT 7:40 AM LOCAL TIME...0710 HPT MAY 7 2146
IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA

CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES...
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... DISCONTINUED
SLEET WARNING... DISCONTINUED
AVALANCHE ADVISORY... DISCONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7.
INLAND GALE WATCH UNTIL 7 PM HPT MAY 7

...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING ... SLEET WARNING ... AVALANCHE ADVISORY
DISCONTINUED...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING... REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA
UNTIL 1:30 PM LOCAL LATER TODAY.

THE INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN INLAND
GALE WATCH... IN EFFECT UNTIL 7:30 PM TONIGHT.

GUSTS ABOVE 34 KT... GALE FORCE... ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANTS OF THE STORM MOVE OUT TO SEA.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. RAINFALL IS DIMINISHING... BUT THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING REMAINS. IF NO FLASH FLOODS OCCUR BY 1 PM HPT... THIS WARNING
WILL BE DISCONTINUED.

EHECATL NOW FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL
BULLETIN.

SWC MTN
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