Difference between revisions of "TD07 (2145)/Past/MSHPC"

Revision as of 06:15, 1 September 2006

MSHPC

Tropical Depression Yuri

Advisory 3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI (4507) ADVISORY 003... LAST ADVISORY
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 4 2145

THE CENTRE OF YURI WAS UNDETECTABLE ON A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS... AND RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE STORM HAS SHOWN LESS CONVECTION. AS SUCH... THE MSHPC
WILL ASSUME THAT THE STORM HAS BEGUN DISSIPATION... AND ACCORDINGLY... THIS
WILL THE BE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE MSHPC... UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.

TCWC LLIWO RE-STRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL STORM FROM A DEPRESSION
IN ABOUT 18 HOURS... AND IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SUCH AN OCCURANCE.
HOWEVER... THE TWO KEY MODELS FOLLOWED BY THE MSHPC, THE AFLE MODEL AND THE UHWF...
BOTH SUGGEST ONLY MINIMAL RESTRENGTHENING. THEREFORE... IF NECESSARY... ADVISORIES
WILL BE RESUMED.

TCWC LLIWO'S ADVISORY AT 1900H LST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT 60 KM/H...
32 KT. THE LATEST DVORAK READINGS SUGGEST A T-NUMBER OF ROUGHLY 2.0... AND THE UHWF
MODEL SUGGESTS A CURRENT INTENSITY... AS OF 1600H PAX... OF 33 KT. AS SUCH... THE
MSHPC WILL SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS FINAL ADVISORY AT 30 KT. YURI IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER BEFORE SOME BRIEF RESTRENGTHENING... AS LAID OUT ABOVE.

AS OF 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 4... TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01...
LOCATED 245 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL. AS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 30 KNOTS... 55 KM/H... 35 MPH... YURI MOVING NORTHEAST AT ROUGHLY 8
KM/H... MIN SLP 1004 HPA... 75.30 CMHG OR 29.65 INHG.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK... TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI IS EXPECTED TO MISS LOX LAND
ISLAND. AS SSTS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND RANGE FROM 27 - 28 DEG C... IT
SEEMS AS THOUGH YURI MAY UNDERGO SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING... ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT CALL FOR IT.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST...
 INITIAL... 245   S SCHIMPOL... 30 KT...DISSIPATING
 6 HOURS... 225 SSE SCHIMPOL... 30 KT...DISSIPATING
12 HOURS... 190  SE SCHIMPOL... 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24 HOURS... 200   E SCHIMPOL... 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
36 HOURS... DISSIPATED

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE MSHPC ON THIS SYSTEM... UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS. TCWC LLIWO ADVISORIES ON ALPHA.01 ARE BEING ISSUED... AND THE NEXT TCWC
LLIWO ADVISORY IS DUE AT 12:30 AM HPT.

FORECASTER CALTS

Tropical Storm Yuri

Advisory 1

TROPICAL STORM YURI (4507) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
7:45 AM PAX... 9:45 AM HPT... 10:15 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 4 2145

RECENT ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS FULL TROPICALITY OF GALE CENTRE
87NE.INVEST... OR TCWC LLIWO ALPHA.01... AND THEREFORE THE MSHPC IS ISSUING
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATEMENT... INDICATING FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...
TROPICAL STORM YURI.

AS OF 10:15 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 4... TROPICAL STORM YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01...
LOCATED 290 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL... AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED...
FROM A BUOY READING... TO BE 45 KT... THIS VALUE DOES NOT COUNT TOWARDS YURI'S
... OR THE SEASON'S... ACE VALUE. 45 KT... 80 KM/H OR 50 MPH... MOVING NORTH
AT ROUGHLY 3 KM/H... MIN SLP 1000 HPA... 75.00 CMHG OR 29.53 INHG.

NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM YURI... ALPHA.01... FROM THE MSHPC AT
3 PM HPT... WITH A TCWC LLIWO ADVISORY AT 12:30 PM HPT.

FORECASTER CALTS

Advisory 2

TROPICAL STORM YURI (4507) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 4 2145

TCWC LLIWO HAS WEAKENED ALPHA.01 TO A 35-KT CYCLONE... AND BASED ON THIS...
DVORAK ANALYSIS... SATELLITE DATA... AND A HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT THAT
REPORTED 42-KT WINDS... THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR ALPHA.01... ALSO KNOWN
OFFICIALLY AS TROPICAL STORM YURI... IS SET AT 40 KNOTS FOR THIS ADDVISORY.

AS OF 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 4... TROPICAL STORM YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01...
LOCATED 270 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL. AS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 40 KNOTS... 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... YURI MOVING NORTH AT ROUGHLY 3-4
KM/H... MIN SLP 1000 HPA... 75.00 CMHG OR 29.53 INHG.

TROPICAL STORM YURI WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN... AND WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT
LOX LAND ISLAND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... RATHER... A REMNANT LOW... WHICH
TCWC LLIWO HAS BEEN ADVISED TO WARN ON UNTIL LANDFALL.

THERE IS NO OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST BEING RELEASED FOR THIS STORM AT THIS
POINT.

NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM YURI... ALPHA.01... FROM THE MSHPC AT
9 PM HPT... WITH A TCWC LLIWO ADVISORY AT 6:30 PM HPT.

FORECASTER CALTS

Advisory 4

TROPICAL STORM YURI (4507) ADVISORY 004... SPECIAL ADVISORY
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 5 2145

IT APPEARS THAT YURI NEVER BEGAN DISSIPATING... AND WITH WORD AT AROUND 0030H
LOCAL TIME FROM TCWC LLIWO THAT YURI HAD REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... AND
CONFIRMATION FROM A RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER READING OF T3.0... ADVISORIES ARE
RESUMED. THIS ADVISORY DOES NOT COUNT TOWARDS THE ACE VALUE OF YURI.

A NOTICE FROM THE UHWF CAME IN AT 0844H HPT... WITH A DVORAK T-NUMBER READING
OF T3.0... AND THE AFLE MODEL FORECASTS A 50-KT TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THREE
HOURS. AS SUCH... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS.

TCWC LLIWO STRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM INTO A HURRICANE FROM A TROPICAL STORM...
WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. THE TWO MODELS WHICH THE MSHPC USUALLY FOLLOW... THE AFLE
AND UHWF... HAVE BOTH BEEN VERY POOR IN FORECASTING THIS SYSTEM... BUT BOTH
AGREE UPON A FORECAST OF A 70-KNOT HURRICANE IN 18 HOURS. THIS... COUPLED
WITH TCWC LLIWO'S FORECAST OF A 75-KNOT HURRICANE BY 0700H LST TOMORROW...
MEANS THAT THE OFFICIAL MSHPC FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AS OF 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 5... TROPICAL STORM YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01...
LOCATED 185 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL. AS PER ABOVE DISCUSSION... MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KNOTS... 85 KM/H... 50 MPH... YURI MOVING NORTHEAST AT
ROUGHLY 6 KM/H... WITH FURTHER SLOWING DOWN IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED... MEANING
THAT THE CENTRE OF YURI WILL REMAIN OVER 28-30 DEG C SSTS FOR QUITE A WHILE...
ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING. MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AT THIS TIME IS 1000
HPA... 75.00 CMHG OR 29.52 INHG.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK... TROPICAL STORM YURI IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN
POPULARFREEDOM... IF IT DOES AFFECT ANY LAND AT ALL.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST...
 INITIAL... 185 ESE SCHIMPOL... 45 KT
 3 HOURS... 170   E SCHIMPOL... 50 KT
 6 HOURS... 185   E SCHIMPOL... 55 KT
12 HOURS... 200  NE SCHIMPOL... 60 KT
24 HOURS... 240  NE SCHIMPOL... 75 KT...CAT 1
36 HOURS... 300 NNE SCHIMPOL... 95 KT...CAT 2

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM YURI FROM THE MSHPC WILL BE ISSUED
AT 3 PM HPT. TCWC LLIWO ADVISORIES ON ALPHA.01 ARE BEING ISSUED... AND THE NEXT
TCWC LLIWO ADVISORY IS DUE AT 12:30 PM HPT.

FORECASTER GUNTHER

Discussion 1 and Advisory 5

TROPICAL STORM YURI (4507) FORECAST/ADVISORY DISCUSSION 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 5 2145

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 55 KT AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION BETWEEN THE
FORECASTERS... AS DVORAK RETURNS HAVE RANGED FROM T3.0 TO T4.5... IT WAS
DECIDED THAT YURI WAS NOT YET A HURRICANE AS IT SHOWED NO CLEAR SIGNS OF
DEVELOPING AN EYE... LIMITING THE INTENSITY TO BELOW 65 KT. THEREFORE...
AS PER TCWC LLIWO'S ADVISORY FROM TWO AND A HALF HOURS AGO... THE MSHPC
HAS SETTLED ON AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT... MAKING YURI AN INTENSE
TROPICAL STORM ON TCWC LLIWO'S RANKING SYSTEM... OR A VERY POWERFUL HIGH-
END TROPICAL STORM ON THE MSHPC'S.

THE TWO MODELS WHICH THE MSHPC USUALLY FOLLOW... THE AFLE AND UHWF... HAVE
BOTH BEEN VERY POOR IN FORECASTING THIS SYSTEM... BUT BOTH MODELS... AS WELL
AS THE HDCW MODEL... FROM THE HEARTLAND DATA COLLECTION CENTRE FOR WEATHER
REPORTS (HDCW) BASED ON HPD 26 AND RUN BY THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE
... ALL FORECAST AN 80-KT HURRICANE IN 18 HOURS. WITH THIS... THE MSHPC
EXPECTS THAT YURI WILL REACH HURRRICANE STRENGTH IN 6-12 HOURS.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST...
 INITIAL... 190   E SCHIMPOL... 55 KT
 6 HOURS... 200  NE SCHIMPOL... 60 KT
12 HOURS... 230  NE SCHIMPOL... 70 KT...CAT 1
24 HOURS... 265 NNE SCHIMPOL... 85 KT...CAT 2
36 HOURS... 360 NNE SCHIMPOL...100 KT...CAT 3

FORECASTER RINDLI

TROPICAL STORM YURI (4507) ADVISORY 005
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 5 2145

AT 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL STORM YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01... LOCATED 190 KM
EAST OF SCHIMPOL. AS FORECAST/ADVISORY DISCUSSION... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 55 KNOTS... 100 KM/H... 65 MPH... YURI MOVING NORTHEAST VERY SLOWLY...
MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AT THIS TIME IS 990 HPA... 74.25 CMHG OR 29.23 INHG.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND.
HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAME STRETCH OF COASTLINE... AS WELL
AS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... INCLUDING BORLEAI
DEFENSE POST.

WIND RADII...
34 KT...
NE QUADRANT...170 KM
NW QUADRANT...210 KM
SE QUADRANT...185 KM
SW QUADRANT...235 KM
50 KT...
NE QUADRANT...40 KM
NW QUADRANT...55 KM
SE QUADRAMT...35 KM
SW QUADRANT...45 KM
64 KT... NO REPORTS

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM YURI FROM THE MSHPC WILL BE ISSUED
AT 9 PM HPT. TCWC LLIWO ADVISORIES ON ALPHA.01 ARE BEING ISSUED... AND THE NEXT
TCWC LLIWO ADVISORY IS DUE AT 6:30 PM HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

Hurricane Yuri

Advisory 6

HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 006...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 5 2145
CORRECTED 1:05 AM LST MAR 6 TO INDICATE TIME OF RELEASE OF NEXT ADVISORY

TCWC LLIWO'S ADVISORY FROM TWO AND A HALF HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT YURI
WAS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE... AND SURE ENOUGH THE HDCW HAS
INFORMED THE MSHPC OF TWO DVORAK READINGS... FROM 1944H LST AND 2113H LST
... OF T4.5 AND MORE RECENTLY T4.0... AS WELL AS A REPORT OF AN 80-KNOT
WIND GUST FROM A BUOY NORTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTRE. AS SUCH... THE HDCW'S
REPORTS WILL BE USED IN JUSTIFYING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS...
MAKING YURI A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

AT 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME HURRICANE YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01... LOCATED 205 KM OR
130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL. AS PER ABOVE... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... 75 MPH... MAKING YURI A MINIMAL CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. YURI IS MOVING NORTHEAST... 5 KM/H
MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AT THIS TIME IS 984 HPA... 73.80 CMHG OR 29.06 INHG.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND.
HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME STRETCH OF COASTLINE... AS WELL
AS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... INCLUDING BORLEAI
DEFENSE POST.

THE AFLE MODEL TAKES YURI TO THE NORTH AND LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN REGION
COAST... THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE AFLE DOES HOWEVER BRING YURI
TO THE NORTHEAST FIRST... AND PEAKS IT AT 85 KNOTS... CATEGORY TWO... IN 18 HOURS...
AS PER THE PREVIOUS MSHPC FORECAST. THE UHWF SENDS THIS STORM INTO NO-MAN'S LAND
MISSING BOTH THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM... ABSORBING
THE NEWLY-REGENERATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABADDON ALONG THE WAY... WHICH IS WHAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW. THE HDCW... WHICH EXTRAPOLATES A FAIR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SIX MODELS... PEAKS YURI AT 140 KNOTS NOT FAR WEST OFF THE COAST OF THE
VARANGIAN REGION OF VLADIMIR-NIEMETZ IN 120 HOURS... AND THIS WILL ALSO BE WHAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW IN TERMS OF STRENGTH... WHICH WOULD MAKE YURI A
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE.

YURI IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUITE A BIT IN FORWARD SPEED... SPEED PEAKING AT
AROUND 45-50 KM/H IN ABOUT 72-96 HOURS TIME.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST...
  INITIAL... 205  ENE        SCHIMPOL... 65 KT
  6 HOURS... 245  ENE        SCHIMPOL... 70 KT
 12 HOURS... 400  ENE        SCHIMPOL... 80 KT
 24 HOURS... 510  NNE        SCHIMPOL... 90 KT
 36 HOURS... 660  NNE        SCHIMPOL...100 KT
 48 HOURS... 980    W  PEARSON CLIFFS...110 KT
 72 HOURS... 880    W  PEARSON CLIFFS...125 KT...ABSORBING 4506 ABADDON
 96 HOURS... 990   NE  PEARSON CLIFFS...135 KT...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
120 HOURS... 800    W  VL-NMETZ COAST...140 KT
   BEYOND... WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND AVOID LAND...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 168 HOURS.

CORRECTION... ADDING NEXT ADVISORY TIME
THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

Advisory 7

HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 007... CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 6 2145
CORRECTED TO REPEAT CURRENT STATUS IN SUMMARY.

HDCW REPORTED A DVORAK ESTIMATION OF T4.5 AT 0224 LST... AND T5.0 AT 0310 LST.
AFLE AND UHWF BOTH FORECAST STRENGTHENING TO AN 85-KNOT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
IN THREE HOURS... THE UHWF FORECAST CAME IN AT 0323 LST... THEREFORE RULING OUT
THE T5.0 READING... WHICH IS JUSTIFIED BY THE CONSTRAINTS OF THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.
THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 80 KT
MAKING YURI A HIGH-END CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ON YURI'S FORECAST TRACK... YURI
MAY TOP 160 KT SHORTLY BEFORE TURNING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 144 HOURS.

AT 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME HURRICANE YURI... 4507/ALPHA.01... LOCATED 240 KM OR
150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL. AS PER ABOVE... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 80 KNOTS... 150 KM/H... 95 MPH... MAKING YURI A HIGH-END CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. YURI IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 KM/H... WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED.
MINIMUM SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE AT THIS TIME IS 976 HPA... 73.20 CMHG OR 28.82 INHG.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND
ISLAND... BUT THE HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME STRETCH OF COASTLINE
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... INCLUDING BORLEAI DEFENSE POST... REMAIN
IN EFFECT... BUT WILL MOST PROBABLY BE DISCONTINUED SOON.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 285 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO
THE NORTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 60 KM. ON ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR LOX LAND
ISLAND WILL BE DISCONTINUED SOON.

THE AFLE MODEL NO LONGER TAKES YURI TO THE NORTH AND LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN
REGION COAST AND INSTEAD NOW SENDS IT OUT INTO THE GREAT ICE SEA... SSTS UNDER
20 C... TO DIE. THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE UHWF SENDS THIS STORM
INTO NO-MAN'S LAND MISSING BOTH THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
POPULARFREEDOM... NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUSLY EXCEPT TO NO LONGER SHOW ABSORPTION
OF ABADDON... WHILE THE HDCW... WHICH EXTRAPOLATES A FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN SIX
MODELS... NOW TURNS YURI TO THE NORTH SLIGHTLY SOONER TO ACCOMODATE THE AFLE...
AND PEAKS YURI AT 150 KNOTS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A SLIGHT UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ACCOMODATE THE
NEW UHWF EXTRAPOLATION FORECAST... BUT WILL PEAK YURI AT 155 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER STRENGTHENING AFTER... BEFORE IT HITS
18 DEG C SSTS AS IT TURNS NORTH AND RAPIDLY LOSES STEAM. YURI'S CURRENT TRACK IS
051/08... BUT WILL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H. ALONG
THIS FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PEARSON CLIFFS
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST...
  INITIAL... 240  ENE        SCHIMPOL... 80 KT...CAT 1
  6 HOURS... 415  ENE        SCHIMPOL... 90 KT...CAT 2
 12 HOURS... 510  ENE        SCHIMPOL...105 KT...CAT 3
 24 HOURS... 700  NNE        SCHIMPOL...115 KT...CAT 4
 36 HOURS... 700  WSW  PEARSON CLIFFS...125 KT...CAT 4
 48 HOURS... 400    N  PEARSON CLIFFS...135 KT...CAT 5
 72 HOURS... 700  NNE  PEARSON CLIFFS...140 KT
 96 HOURS...1000   NE  PEARSON CLIFFS...155 KT
120 HOURS...1000    W          BURZEN...155 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   BEYOND...YURI MAY TOP OFF AT 160 KT IN 144 HOURS BEFORE EXTRATROPICALITY
            SETS IN... AND AS IT TURNS EXTRATROPICAL IT SHOULD HIT SSTS
            COLDER THAN 18 DEG C... WEAKENING IT TO A 65-KT STORM BY 168
            HOURS.

REPEATING THE 3:30 AM POSITION... 240 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL, LOX LAND
ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 HPA. YURI IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS AT 15 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

Advisory 8

HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 008
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
9 AM HPT... 7 AM PAX... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 6 2145

...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES DISCONTINUED...

HDCW REPORTED T5.0 DVORAK READING AT 0857H LST. JUSTIFICATION FOR RAISING
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 90 KNOTS.

AT 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME HURRICANE YURI IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 KM OR
225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 90 KNOTS
... 165 KM/H... 105 MPH... MAKING YURI A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. YURI IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
16 KM/H... WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED. MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 HPA... 72.83 CMHG OR 28.67 INHG.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 235 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO
THE NORTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 80 KM. ON ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR POPULARFREEDOM.

THE AFLE MODEL IS DISREGARDED FOR THIS DISCUSSION ADVISORY AS IT PEAKED YURI
AT 85 KNOTS AND REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN IT ANY FURTHER. THE UHWF HAS REVISED ITS
MODEL FORECAST DOWNWARDS... TURNING YURI TO THE NORTH MUCH EARLIER... PEAKING
IT AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITH 120 KNOT WINDS. THE HDCW'S EXTRAPOLATED
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO PEAK YURI AT 160 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A MODIFICATION OF THE PREVIOUS... TO CHANGE THE
PEAK STRENGTH OF YURI... WHICH THE MSHPC WILL SET AT 140 KNOTS... A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2

CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H

INITIAL FORECAST TIME 06/0900 HPT
06/0900H... 410  ENE        SCHIMPOL... 90 KT...CAT 2
06/1500H... 510  ENE        SCHIMPOL...100 KT...CAT 3
07/0300H... 700  NNE        SCHIMPOL...110 KT
07/1500H... 700  WSW  PEARSON CLIFFS...120 KT...CAT 4
08/0300H... 400    N  PEARSON CLIFFS...130 KT
09/0300H... 700  NNE  PEARSON CLIFFS...130 KT
10/0300H...1000   NE  PEARSON CLIFFS...140 KT...CAT 5
11/0300H...1000    W          BURZEN...130 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

REPEATING THE 9:30 AM POSITION... 410 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL, LOX LAND
ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 165 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 HPA. YURI IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AT 16 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

Advisory 9

HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 009
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 6 2145

I WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE THIS AS SHORT AND SUCCINT AS POSSIBLE.

WE HAVE A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE ON OUR HANDS.

YURI IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...
WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED.

AT 3 PM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI WAS LOCATED BY A 1451H LST QUIKSCAT
PASS TO BE ABOUT 515 KM... 320 MILES... EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL, LIVERPOOL
ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H OR 115 MPH... MAKING YURI A VERY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.
YURI HAS A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 966 HPA... 72.45 CM HG... 28.52 IN HG...
AND IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS AT 15 KM/H.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 305 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 105 KM. ON ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR POPULARFREEDOM.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK... ALL I CAN HOPE FOR IS THAT WE
ARE HORRIBLY WRONG AND THIS WILL DISSIPATE SOON... AS THE AFLE NOW SHOWS A
CATEGORY FIVE LANDFALL NEAR BURZEN... WHICH WOULD BE DEVASTATING.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK DOES HOWEVER REVISE ITS FORECAST PEAK... UPWARDS... TO 145KT.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2

CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H

INITIAL FORECAST TIME 06/1500 HPT
 INITIAL... 515  ENE        SCHIMPOL...100 KT...CAT 3
06/2100H... 610   NE        SCHIMPOL...105 KT
07/0300H... 700  NNE        SCHIMPOL...110 KT
07/1500H... 700  WSW  PEARSON CLIFFS...120 KT...CAT 4
08/0300H... 400    N  PEARSON CLIFFS...135 KT
09/0300H... 700  NNE  PEARSON CLIFFS...140 KT...CAT 5
10/0300H...1000   NE  PEARSON CLIFFS...145 KT
11/0300H...1000    W          BURZEN...130 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

REPEATING THE 3:30 PM POSITION... 515 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL, LOX LAND
ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 HPA. YURI IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS AT 15 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 PM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

Advisory 10

HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 010
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 6 2145

HURRICANE YURI'S STRENGTHENING HAS STALLED... AND WE MAY ACTUALLY HAVE SEEN
THE PEAK OF THIS CYCLONE. HOWEVER... DUE TO THE UNPREDICABILITY OF THIS STORM
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR POPULARFREEDOM... FROM THE
PEARSON MOUNTAINS NORTH TO PEARSON CLIFFS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36
HOURS.

HDCW AND MODELS HAVE ALL SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFIED THEIR FORECASTS TO ACCOMODATE
AN UNEXPECTED BUILD-UP OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRIVING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORWARD FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF YURI. WIND SHEAR HAS
INCREASED... AND YURI MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN. A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
IS NO LONGER EXPECTED... AND EVEN CATEGORY FOUR MAY BE A STRETCH AT THIS POINT.

A PRESSURE READING FROM 1806H LST WAS 958 HECTOPASCALS... HOWEVER... A READING
AT 2113H SHOWED NO CHANGE. YURI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN IN FORWARD
SPEED... HOWEVER WITH THE UNPREDICABILITY SO FAR OF THIS SYSTEM... I CANNOT SAY
FOR SURE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100KT FROM THE 2113H RECON REPORT.

AT 9 PM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 615 KM... 385 MI
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185
KM/H OR 115 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 HPA... 28.29 IN HG... YURI
IS MOVING EASTWARDS AT 15 KM/H.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 365 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 145 KM. REPEAT...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN RELEASED FOR A PART OF THE POPULARFREEDOM
COAST.

WITH THE DRASTIC CHANGES IN CONDITIONS... THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOW PEAK
YURI AT 105 KT... WITH ONLY LITTLE STRENGTHENING EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS
BEFORE THE CYCLONE STARTS TO WEAKEN. THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE EXPECTED SLOWING DOWN OF YURI.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 
CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H 
INITIAL FORECAST TIME 06/2100 HPT
 INITIAL... 615   NE        SCHIMPOL...100 KT...CAT 3
07/0300H... 920    W  PEARSON CLIFFS...105 KT
07/0900H... 825    W  PEARSON CLIFFS... 95 KT...CAT 2
07/2100H... 665  WSW  PEARSON CLIFFS... 85 KT
08/0900H... 490    W  PEARSON CLIFFS... 65 KT...CAT 1...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
09/2100H... 210    W  PEARSON CLIFFS... 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
10/0300H... 180  NNW  PEARSON CLIFFS... 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

REPEATING THE 9:30 PM POSITION... 615 KM NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL, LOX LAND
ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 HPA. YURI IS MOVING EASTWARDS AT 15 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER GUNTHER

Advisory 11

HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 011...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 7 2145
CORRECTED CURRENT TIME IN SUMMARY PARAGRAPH

HURRICANE YURI HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER... IT
IS STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY
OF WINDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR POPULARFREEDOM... FROM THE
PEARSON MOUNTAINS NORTH TO PEARSON CLIFFS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36
HOURS.

INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT FROM REPORTS FROM VARIOUS SOURCES... MOST
IMPORTANTLY A RECENT RECON REPORT WHICH ALSO FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 960
HECTOPASCALS. YURI'S TRACK REMAINS AS EXPECTED.

AT 3 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 920 KM... 575 MI
WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H OR
115 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 960 HPA... YURI REMAINS ON AN EASTWARD
TRACK AT 16 KM/H.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 365 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 145 KM. REPEAT...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR A PART OF THE POPULARFREEDOM COAST.

YURI IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE FORECAST
PERIOD... AND THE WEAKENING WILL TAKE LONGER, GIVEN YURI'S RECENT IMAGERY...
YURI IS PROBABLY AN ANNULAR HURRICANE.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 
CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H 
INITIAL FORECAST TIME 07/0300 HPT
 INITIAL... 920    W  PEARSON CLIFFS...100 KT
07/0900H... 825    W  PEARSON CLIFFS...100 KT
07/2100H... 665  WSW  PEARSON CLIFFS... 95 KT...CAT 2
08/0900H... 490    W  PEARSON CLIFFS... 95 KT
09/2100H... 210    W  PEARSON CLIFFS... 90 KT
10/0300H... 180  NNW  PEARSON CLIFFS... 90 KT

REPEATING THE 3:30 AM POSITION... 920 KM WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 960 HPA. YURI IS MOVING EASTWARDS AT 16 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER GUNTHER

Advisory 12

HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 012
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 7 2145

HURRICANE YURI REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... YURI HAS
TAKEN ON THE LOOK OF AN ANNULAR HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR POPULARFREEDOM FROM THE LOYALTY/PEARSON MTN. RANGE SEPERATOR
NORTHWARDS TO PEARSON CLIFFS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
AFFECTING PARTS OF THE PEARSON MOUNTAINS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS 
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
IN 24-36 HOURS.

INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT FROM REPORTS FROM VARIOUS SOURCES...
AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT YURI WILL WEAKEN ANY TIME SOON. A RECENT RECON
AIRCRAFT FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 959 HPA.

AT 9 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 825 KM...
515 MILES WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 185 KM/H OR 115 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 959 HPA... YURI HAS
TAKEN A SLIGHT TURN TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW MOVING AT 13 KM/H.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 425 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 205 KM. REPEAT...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR A PART OF THE POPULARFREEDOM COAST.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN YURI AT OR NEAR CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 
CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H 
INITIAL FORECAST TIME 07/0900 HPT
 INITIAL... 825    W  PEARSON CLIFFS...100 KT
07/2100H... 665  WSW  PEARSON CLIFFS...100 KT
08/0900H... 505    W  PEARSON CLIFFS... 95 KT...CAT 2
09/2100H... 230    W  PEARSON CLIFFS... 95 KT
10/0300H... 195  NNW  PEARSON CLIFFS...100 KT...CAT 3

REPEATING THE 9:30 AM POSITION... 825 KM WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 959 HPA. YURI IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS AT 13 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER GUNTHER

Advisory 13

HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 013
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC OREAN HEADQUARTERS
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 7 2145

HURRICANE YURI STILL REFUSES TO WEAKEN. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVIOUSLY
HINDERING YURI'S MOVEMENT HAS BROKEN AND YURI IS NOW SPEEDING UP... MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 43 KM/H. GIVEN THIS... YURI IS... ONCE AGAIN... FORECAST
TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR POPULARFREEDOM FROM THE LOYALTY/
PEARSON MTN. RANGE SEPERATOR NORTHWARDS TO PEARSON CLIFFS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED
TO HURRICANE WARNINGS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA INSIDE 24 HOURS.

DESPITE A RECENT T5.7 DVORAK READING FROM HDCW... AND A T6.0 READING FROM
UHWF... INITIAL INTENSITY IS... FOR NOW... HELD AT 100 KT.

AT 3 PM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 45.4N 27.6E...
ABOUT 665 KM... 415 MILES WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H OR 115 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 957
HPA... YURI IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 43 KM/H.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 445 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 230 KM. ON THIS
FORECAST TRACK... PEARSON CLIFFS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING MINIMAL HURRICANE
CONDITIONS VERY SOON. EMERGENCY HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

WITH WARM WATERS AWAITING IT... HURRICANE YURI IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 
CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H 
INITIAL FORECAST TIME 07/1500 HPT
 INITIAL... 665  WSW  PEARSON CLIFFS...100 KT
07/2100H... 405    W  PEARSON CLIFFS...110 KT
08/0300H... 285    N  PEARSON CLIFFS...115 KT...CAT 4
08/1500H... 600   NE  PEARSON CLIFFS...120 KT
09/0300H... 570  NNE   WORKERS POINT...130 KT
09/1500H... 575  NNE   WORKERS POINT...135 KT
10/0300H... 565  NNE   WORKERS POINT...140 KT...CAT 5

IN THE LONG RUN... YURI IS EXPECTED TO STALL ABOUT 570 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM... ALL THE WHILE STRENGTHENING... WHILE MAKING
AND ANTI-CLOCKWISE LOOP BEFORE HEADING SOUTH.

REPEATING THE 3:30 PM POSITION... NEAR 45.4N 27.6E... 665 KM WEST 
OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 185 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 HPA. YURI IS MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARDS AT 43 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 PM HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

Update

HURRICANE YURI (4507) UPDATE
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
10 PM PAX MAR 7 2145... 12 AM HPT... 1 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 8 2145

TCWC MSHPC IS RELINQUISHING JURISDICTION OF WARNING ON SYSTEM 4507 HURRICANE
YURI... TO THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HEADQUARTERS IN
FOLENISA, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... THE MSHPC'S DESIGNATED BACKUP ADVISORY CENTRE.

ALL FURTHER ADVISORIES, UPDATES, FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS WILL BE RELEASED
BY MET SERV HQ. THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY SCHEDULED FOR NOW WILL BE RELEASED
BY MET SERV HQ.

FORECASTER CALTS

Advisory 19

4507 TCWC HPCLC
HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 019...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 10 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 8 2145
CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY IN FORECAST

YURI MAINTAINS STRENGTH...

THE MET SERVICE HQ IN FOLENISA HAS TRANSFERRED WARNING JURISDICTION
OVER YURI BACK TO THE MSHPC. FUTHER ADVISORIES WILL BE RELEASED BY
THE MSHPC... EITHER FROM THE OREAN HEADQUARTERS UNDER REGIONAL BULLETIN
HEADER 4507 TCWC HPCOR OR FROM THE LUNAR CITY SATELLITE BUREAU UNDER
HEADER 4507 TCWC HPCLC.
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
POPULARFREEDOM COAST... FROM 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT... EASTWARDS
FOR 120 KM. FURTHER EAST... HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
60 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT EAST TO WORKERS POINT... AS WELL AS WELL
AS FOR 20 KM SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST.

WARNING... EMERGENCY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REINSTATED FOR
THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT... WEST
TO PEARSON CLIFFS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... ONCE AGAIN... ARE
BEING FELT IN PEARSON CLIFFS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

FURTHER REPORTS FROM PEARSON CLIFFS KEEP DAMAGE FIGURES AT UNDER ONE
BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS... PEARSON CLIFFS MAY HAVE GOT OFF LUCKY.
DEATH TOLL... NOW STANDS AT 255 FROM YURI IN PEARSON CLIFFS... TWO
DEATHS WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS OFFSHORE... AND THREE IN THE NOLAN
SOUND... BRINGING THE DEATH TOLL FROM YURI TO 260... WHICH IN TURN
RAISES THE SEASONAL DEATH TOLL TO 422. HALT ALL DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
AT ONCE... AND TAKE IMMEDIATE SHELTER!

ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RETAINED FROM THE SECOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...
80 KT... FROM A COMBINATION OF T-NUMBERS FROM HDCW AND UHWF... AS WELL
AS SHIP REPORTS.

YURI WILL BE TRAVELLING OVER 27 DEG C WATERS WITH ONLY 10-15 KNOT SHEAR
ESTIMATED... AND YURI MAY THUS REGAIN CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL...

LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS. ALL EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE.
TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY.

AT 9 PM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
46.1N 31.2E ... ABOUT 260 KM... 160 MILES... NORTHWEST OF
WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 305 KM... 190 MILES...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PEARSON CLIFFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 KM/H OR
95 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 974 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT 54 KM/H.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN WORKERS POINT.
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FELT IN PEARSON CLIFFS AS WELL...
EMERGENCY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REINSTATED.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 KM FROM THE CENTRE... 
AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 KM. 

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 
CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME 08/2100 HPT
 INITIAL... 46.1 N 31.2 E... 80 KT
09/0000H... 45.5 N 31.6 E... 80 KT
09/0300H... 44.6 N 31.8 E... 50 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
09/0900H... DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION... NEAR 46.1N 31.2E... 260 KM
NORTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150
KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 HPA. YURI IS MOVING
SE AT 54 KM/H.

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED FOR 12 AM HPT.

FORECASTERS HUNTER/RINDLI

Advisory 19A

4507 TCWC HPCLC
HURRICANE YURI (4507) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 019A
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
10 PM PAX MAR 8... 12 AM HPT... 1 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 9 2145

YURI MAINTAINS STRENGTH...

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT WESTWARDS TO
PEARSON CLIFFS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
POPULARFREEDOM COAST... FROM 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT... EASTWARDS
FOR 120 KM. FURTHER EAST... HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
60 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT EAST TO WORKERS POINT... AS WELL AS WELL
AS FOR 20 KM SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST.

DAMAGE WAS LIMITED IN PEARSON CLIFFS... WITH NO REAL FLOODING TO SPEAK
OF. INITIAL ESTIMATES STILL HOVER AROUND THE 1 BILLION LIVERPOOL POUND
MARK. DEATH TOLL... NEW REPORTS OF UP TO 45 DEATHS IN A SUBURB OF PEARSON
CLIFFS... BRINGING THE DEATH TOLL FROM YURI TO 305... AND THE TOTAL TOLL
FROM THE SEASON TO 467.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY INTENSITY... 80 KT... FROM COMBINATION OF FACTORS.

LANDFALL WITHIN THREE HOURS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

AT 12 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
45.5N 31.6E ... ABOUT 105 KM... 65 MILES... NORTHWEST OF
WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 KM/H OR
95 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 977 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT 40 KM/H.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 KM FROM THE CENTRE... 
AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 KM. 

MODEL FORECASTS... AFLE MODEL TAKES THIS STORM BACK OUT INTO OPEN WATER...
THE ONLY COMPUTER MODEL TO DO SO. THE THTC... HDCW EXTP... UHWF... WHICH
ARE THE THREE THIS FORECAST WILL MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW... TAKE THIS STORM
FURTHER INLAND TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF LOCKE HARBOR.

INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY... IN THREE HOURS THE CENTRE OF YURI
WOULD HAVE MADE LANDFALL... BUT MOST OF ITS STRONGER WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE... AND THUS WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE MOUNTAINS TO ITS WEST.
ASSUMING THE SYSTEM DOES MOVE FURTHER INLAND... AND ASSUMING A HIGH-END
CATEGORY ONE LANDFALL... INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 04H LST IS SET AT 45 KT.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 
CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME 09/0000 HPT
 INITIAL... 45.5 N 31.6 E... 80 KT
09/0300H... 44.6 N 31.8 E... 45 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
09/0900H... DISSIPATED

THE 1 AM LOCAL TIME POSITION...
105 KM NORTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT.
HURRICANE WARNINGS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KM/H... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 KM/H. LANDFALL
WITHIN THREE HOURS.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT LANDFALL... FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED WITH A FORECAST... UNLESS THE STORM
HEADS BACK OUT TO WATER.

FORECASTERS HUNTER/RINDLI

Advisory 20

4507 TCWC HPCOR
HURRICANE YURI (4507) SPECIAL ADVISORY 020
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
11:35 PM PAX MAR 8... 1:35 AM HPT... 2:35 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 9 2145

YURI MAKES LANDFALL A SECOND TIME... 

LANDFALL REPORTED AT ABOUT 0210H LST... 2310H PAX.

LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS ABOUT 65-70 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET...
MAYBE AGGRESIVELY... AT 65 KT... KEEPING YURI AS A HURRICANE FOR
AT LEAST ONE MORE ADVISORY.
  
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
POPULARFREEDOM COAST... FROM 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT... EASTWARDS
FOR 120 KM. FURTHER EAST... HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
60 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT EAST TO WORKERS POINT... AS WELL AS WELL
AS FOR 20 KM SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AT THE NEXT ADVISORY.

DAMAGE WAS LIMITED IN PEARSON CLIFFS... WITH NO REAL FLOODING TO SPEAK
OF. INITIAL ESTIMATES STILL HOVER AROUND THE 1 BILLION LIVERPOOL POUND
MARK. DEATH TOLL... REMAINS 305 FOR NOW.

AT 1:35 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
45.1N 31.8E... NEAR OR OVER WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KM/H OR 75 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985
HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT 27 KM/H.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 KM FROM THE CENTRE... 
AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 KM. 

MOST OF YURI'S WINDFIELD IS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS, YURI MAY
STILL BE RECORDING NEAR-HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS AT TIMES EVEN WHILE
OVERLAND. ALL COMPUTER MODELS NOW AGREE ON DISSIPATION INLAND WITHIN
THE NEXT SIX TO NINE HOURS.

THERE WILL BE AN ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTERS HUNTER/RINDLI

Advisory 21

4507 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL STORM YURI (4507) ADVISORY 021
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 4 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 9 2145

YURI NOW INLAND... DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. ALL COASTAL
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED.
  
MORE PRELIMINARY DAMAGE FIGURES...
LOX LAND ISLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS... TWO DEATHS... 16 MIL. L.P.
PEARSON CLIFFS AND SURROUNDING AREAS... 314 DEATHS... 925 MIL. L.P.
WORKERS POINT AND SURROUNDING AREAS... SEVEN DEATHS... 60 MIL. L.P.
TOTAL DAMAGE... 323 DEATHS... ABOUT 1 BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS.
SEASONAL TOTALS... 484 DEATHS... 1.185 BIL. LIVERPOOL POUNDS.

AT 3 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 44.6N 
31.8E ... ABOUT 160 KM... 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT,
POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KM/H OR 50 MPH...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AT 31 KM/H.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 KM FROM THE CENTRE.

MOST OF YURI'S WINDFIELD IS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE... INCLUDING SOME
SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 55 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY
AT 45 KT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 300 MM ARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS...
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 400 MM. AROUND WORKERS POINT... RAINFALL TOTALS
OF UP TO 200 MM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

REPEATING LATEST POSITION...
44.6 N, 31.8 E, INLAND ABOUT 160 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT. MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT... MOVING SW AT 30 KM/H.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM YURI FROM THE MSHPC. AN
ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 AM HPT BY THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE
RUN JOINTLY BY THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AND KOMPA RUAN GOVERNMENTS...BASED AT
MSHPC BRANCH IN LUNAR CITY. SHOULD YURI STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM THEN...
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TO COUNT TO THE ACE TOTALS.

FORECASTERS HUNTER/RINDLI

Advisory 22

4507 HWULC
ADVISORY 1 ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI
THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU

4507 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI (4507) FINAL ADVISORY 022
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 10 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 9 2145

YURI DISSIPATING INLAND...
  
MORE PRELIMINARY DAMAGE FIGURES...
LOX LAND ISLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS... TWO DEATHS... 16 MIL. L.P.
PEARSON CLIFFS AND SURROUNDING AREAS... 341 DEATHS... 925 MIL. L.P.
WORKERS POINT AND SURROUNDING AREAS... 61 DEATHS... 115 MIL. L.P.
TOTAL DAMAGE... 404 DEATHS... ABOUT 1 BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS.
SEASONAL TOTALS... 565 DEATHS... 1.241 BIL. LIVERPOOL POUNDS.
AS THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... MORE DAMAGE FIGURES WILL BE AVAILABLE
IN BOTH THE MONTHLY WEATHER SUMMARY FOR MARCH AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE REPORT.

AT 9 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 44.6N 
31.8E... ABOUT 300 KM... 190 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT,
POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KM/H OR 75 MPH...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AT 19 KM/H.

ALL OF YURI IS NOW INLAND DISSIPATING OVER ROCKY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...
BUT INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET... PERHAPS TOO AGRESSIVELY... AT 30 KT
... DUE TO GUSTS TO 40 KT REPORTED.

REPEATING LATEST POSITION...
44.2 N, 31.6 E, INLAND ABOUT 300 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT. MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT... MOVING SW AT 19 KM/H.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE MSHPC UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM
OVER LAND... AND ISSUE WARNINGS IF NEEDED.

FORECASTERS GUNTHER/KRUGER