Difference between revisions of "TD08 (2145)/Past"

Revision as of 09:49, 10 August 2006

Tropical Depression Eight

Advisory 1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 001... SPECIAL ADVISORY...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
2 AM PAX... 4 AM HPT... 6 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145
CORRECTED SPELLING OF SANKT RIURIK IN FORECAST
CORRECTED AT 6:45 AM HPT TO INDICATE NEXT ADVISORY AND TO CHANGE FORECAST

HDCW REPORTED AT 0513H LST THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF POPULARFREEDOM HAD GAINED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND HAD A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE... AND T NUMBERS WERE 1.5/1.5 FROM HCDW AND UHWF
AT 0531H LST AND 0517H LST RESPECTIVELY... MAKING THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. PER THE T-NUMBERS... INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS NEAR AN AREA OF DRY AIR... AND MAY NOT LAST LONG.
INDEED... THE AFLE MODEL BRINGS THIS TO A MINIMAL 35-KT TROPICAL STORM IN 24
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING IT BY 48 HOURS. THE UHWF SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT MAY BE SLIGHTLY SUBTROPICAL AT THIS POINT... AND PEAKS IT AS
A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR SANKT RIURIK. THE HCDW'S EXTRAPOLATED
MODEL SUGGESTS A PEAK OF 38 KNOTS BEFORE DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE
ABOVE... AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR AND 25-KT WIND SHEAR AWAITING
IT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DISSIPATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IN 60 HOURS.

AT 6 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT LOCATED ABOUT 285 KM... 180 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM... ABOUT 430 KM... 270 MILES EAST OF
LOCKE HARBOUR... OR ABOUT 995 KM... 620 MILES... NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK,
VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
16 KM/H... 10 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HECTOPASCALS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW
VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY AS THE STORM GRADUALLY INCREASES IN FORWARD
SPEED.

NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS
WITHIN 30-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
 INITIAL... 995 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT
 6 HOURS... 890 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT
12 HOURS... 755 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT
24 HOURS... 515 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
36 HOURS... 300 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT
48 HOURS... 215 KM   WSW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT...DISSIPATING
72 HOURS...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER RYAN

Advisory 2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 002... CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145
CORRECTED TO SWAP "HDCW" AND "UHWF" IN FIRST PARA.
CORRECTED FORECAST.

CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT... AND IT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UHWF REPORTS T1.5 AT 0949H LST AND HDCW REPORTED THAT
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1011H LST FAILED TO FIND ANY CLEAR CENTRE OF THIS SYSTEM.
AS SUCH... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

AT 11 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
885 KM... 555 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 50 KM/H OR 30 MPH... THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS
SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 23 KM/H... 14 MPH.

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SYSTEM. THE AFLE STILL PEAKS
IT AS A 35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM IN 18 HOURS... WHICH MAY SEEM TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY OCCURRENCE. THE UHWF IS STILL INSISTING ON A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE LANDFALL IN SANKT RIURIK... THE HDCW'S EXTRAPOLATED MODEL PEAKS IT
AT 41 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SURVIVE
THE CONDITIONS LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE LANDFALL... AS WELL AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
TURN IN THE STORM'S PATH BEING FORECAST... BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ATTAIN
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE AFLE MODEL...
BUT THERE IS LITTLE... IF ANY... CHANGE IN TRACK.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW
VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY AS THE STORM GRADUALLY INCREASES IN FORWARD
SPEED.

REPEATING THE 11 AM POSITION... 885 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HPA. TD EIGHT IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 23 KM/H.

NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS
WITHIN 30-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU EVERY THREE HOURS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 06/0900 HPT

 INITIAL... 885 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT
06/1500H... 745 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT
07/0300H... 505 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
07/1500H... 285 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT...DISSIPATING
08/0300H... 200 KM   WSW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
08/1500H...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER RYAN