TD08 (2145)/Past

Tropical Depression Eight

Advisory 1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 001... SPECIAL ADVISORY...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
2 AM PAX... 4 AM HPT... 6 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145
CORRECTED SPELLING OF SANKT RIURIK IN FORECAST
CORRECTED AT 6:45 AM HPT TO INDICATE NEXT ADVISORY AND TO CHANGE FORECAST

HDCW REPORTED AT 0513H LST THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF POPULARFREEDOM HAD GAINED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND HAD A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE... AND T NUMBERS WERE 1.5/1.5 FROM HCDW AND UHWF
AT 0531H LST AND 0517H LST RESPECTIVELY... MAKING THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. PER THE T-NUMBERS... INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS NEAR AN AREA OF DRY AIR... AND MAY NOT LAST LONG.
INDEED... THE AFLE MODEL BRINGS THIS TO A MINIMAL 35-KT TROPICAL STORM IN 24
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING IT BY 48 HOURS. THE UHWF SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT MAY BE SLIGHTLY SUBTROPICAL AT THIS POINT... AND PEAKS IT AS
A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR SANKT RIURIK. THE HCDW'S EXTRAPOLATED
MODEL SUGGESTS A PEAK OF 38 KNOTS BEFORE DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE
ABOVE... AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR AND 25-KT WIND SHEAR AWAITING
IT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DISSIPATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IN 60 HOURS.

AT 6 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT LOCATED ABOUT 285 KM... 180 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM... ABOUT 430 KM... 270 MILES EAST OF
LOCKE HARBOUR... OR ABOUT 995 KM... 620 MILES... NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK,
VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
16 KM/H... 10 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HECTOPASCALS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW
VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY AS THE STORM GRADUALLY INCREASES IN FORWARD
SPEED.

NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS
WITHIN 30-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
 INITIAL... 995 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT
 6 HOURS... 890 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT
12 HOURS... 755 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT
24 HOURS... 515 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
36 HOURS... 300 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT
48 HOURS... 215 KM   WSW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT...DISSIPATING
72 HOURS...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER RYAN