Difference between revisions of "TD10 (2145)"

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{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Depression Ten
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{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Storm Griel
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|category=depression|type=Tropical depression
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|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
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|local time=2200
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|local time=0300
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|date=June 10
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|date=June 11
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
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|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.8&deg;S 10.4&deg;E]<br/>About 3580 km (2240 miles) east of Puerto Nuevo, Vassfforcia
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.8&deg;S 10.0&deg;E]<br/>About 3455 km (2160 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]]
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|winds=55 km/h (30 mph)
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|winds=75 km/h (40 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
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|pressure=1001 hPa
+
|pressure=998 hPa
 
|movement=West at 24 km/h (15 mph)
 
|movement=West at 24 km/h (15 mph)
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|advisory=first}}
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|advisory=latest}}
 
----
 
----
 
  4510 TCWC HPCLC
 
  4510 TCWC HPCLC
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  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (4510) SPECIAL ADVISORY 001
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  TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 002
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
 
  MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
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  8 PM PAX... 10 PM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 10 2145
+
  1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145
 
   
 
   
−
  RECON DATA IS IN. RECON REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT...
+
  INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON EVER-RISING
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  WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED...
+
  T-NUMBERS... HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS.
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ALBEIT VERY SPARSELY... BY SHIPS IN THE REGION. BASED ON T-NUMBERS
+
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FROM HDCW AND UHWF... ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
+
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TEN... LOCATED FAR WEST OF TORQUAY AND FAR EAST OF VASSFFORCIA IN
+
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NO-MAN'S LAND... AT 30 KNOTS.
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  WIND SHEAR IS A VERY LOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WATERS ARE WAY TOO WARM...
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  WIND SHEAR IS ALMOST ZERO. WATERS ARE WAY TOO WARM...NEAR 36 DEG C
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NEAR 35 DEG C IN SOME PLACES... AND THIS MIGHT LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE
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IN SOME PLACES... AND THIS WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION.
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INTENSIFICATION. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS BECAME A CATEGORY
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THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A HURRICANE IN 12-18 HOURS... AND
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  FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
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  A MAJOR HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 48.
 
   
 
   
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  AT 10 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
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  AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
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  13.8S 10.4E... OR ABOUT 3580 KM... 2240 MILES... EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO,
+
  13.8S 10.0E... OR ABOUT 3455 KM... 2160 MILES... EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO,
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  VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 55 KM/H... 35 MPH...
+
  VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 75 KM/H... 45 MPH...
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  GUSTING TO 45 KT... AND TD-TEN IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H... 15 MPH...
+
  GUSTING TO 60 KT... AND GRIEL IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H... 15 MPH...
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  THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS.
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  THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
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  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 HPA.
+
  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA.
 
   
 
   
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DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING STORMS THAT ARE IN THIS GENERAL
 
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AREA... AS SEEN WITH FELICIA AND GEORGE... THE LOCATION FORECASTS ARE
 
−
NOT PROVIDED BEYOND 36 HOURS... AND ONLY INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE PROVIDED.
 
 
  BASED ON AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH ARE ALL GENERALLY IN GOOD
 
  BASED ON AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH ARE ALL GENERALLY IN GOOD
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  AGREEMENT... TD-TEN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. LATER IN THE
+
  AGREEMENT... GRIEL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS. LATER IN THE
 
  96-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HDCW
 
  96-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HDCW
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  EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... AND BRINGS TD-TEN TO A CATEGORY FOUR 120-KT HURRICANE.
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  EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... AND MAKES GRIEL A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE.
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST...
 
  OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST...
 
  1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 115 MPH...
 
  1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 115 MPH...
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  INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 10/2200H... ALL TIMES IN HPT
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  INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 11/0300H... ALL TIMES IN HPT
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   INITIAL... 13.8 S 10.4 E... 30 KT
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   INITIAL... 13.8 S 10.0 E... 40 KT
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10/0300H... 13.8 S 10.0 E... 40 KT
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  11/0900H... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 55 KT
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  11/0900H... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 45 KT
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  11/1500H... 14.0 S 08.3 E... 70 KT...CAT 1
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  11/2100H... 14.0 S 08.3 E... 60 KT
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  12/0300H... 14.0 S 07.9 E... 80 KT
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  12/0900H... 14.0 S 07.6 E... 75 KT
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  12/1500H... 13.9 S 07.2 E... 95 KT...CAT 2
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  12/2100H... UNAVAILABLE  ... 95 KT
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  13/0300H... 13.9 S 06.4 E...115 KT...CAT 4
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  13/2100H... UNAVAILABLE  ...110 KT  
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  14/0300H... 13.8 S 04.8 E...145 KT...CAT 5
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  14/2100H... UNAVAILABLE ...120 KT
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  15/0300H... 14.0 S 03.3 E...120 KT...CAT 4
 
   
 
   
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  REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION... 13.8S 10.4E OR ABOUT 3580 KM EAST OF PUERTO
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  IT SHOULD BE NOTED LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO ERRORS OF
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  NUEVO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MOVING
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  UP TO 40 KT ON DAY 3... AND 50 KT ON DAY 5.
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WEST AT 24 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 HPA.
+
 
   
 
   
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  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.
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REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 13.8S 10.0E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
 +
75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
 +
IS 998 HPA.
 +
 +
  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT.
 
   
 
   
 
  FORECASTER LAVAL
 
  FORECASTER LAVAL

Revision as of 03:02, 7 September 2006

Latest storm information
Tropical Storm Griel
Tropical storm
As of: 0300 local time June 11, 2145
Location: 13.8°S 10.0°E
About 3455 km (2160 miles) east of Puerto Nuevo, Vassfforcia
Maximum
winds: 		75 km/h (40 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 998 hPa
Movement: West at 24 km/h (15 mph)
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here 
4510 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON EVER-RISING
T-NUMBERS... HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS.

WIND SHEAR IS ALMOST ZERO. WATERS ARE WAY TOO WARM...NEAR 36 DEG C
IN SOME PLACES... AND THIS WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A HURRICANE IN 12-18 HOURS... AND
A MAJOR HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 48.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.8S 10.0E... OR ABOUT 3455 KM... 2160 MILES... EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO,
VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 75 KM/H... 45 MPH...
GUSTING TO 60 KT... AND GRIEL IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H... 15 MPH...
THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA.

BASED ON AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH ARE ALL GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT... GRIEL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS. LATER IN THE
96-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HDCW
EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... AND MAKES GRIEL A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST...
1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 115 MPH...
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 11/0300H... ALL TIMES IN HPT
 INITIAL... 13.8 S 10.0 E... 40 KT
11/0900H... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 55 KT
11/1500H... 14.0 S 08.3 E... 70 KT...CAT 1
12/0300H... 14.0 S 07.9 E... 80 KT
12/1500H... 13.9 S 07.2 E... 95 KT...CAT 2
13/0300H... 13.9 S 06.4 E...115 KT...CAT 4
14/0300H... 13.8 S 04.8 E...145 KT...CAT 5
15/0300H... 14.0 S 03.3 E...120 KT...CAT 4

IT SHOULD BE NOTED LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO ERRORS OF
UP TO 40 KT ON DAY 3... AND 50 KT ON DAY 5.

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 13.8S 10.0E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 998 HPA.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL
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