Difference between revisions of "TD10 (2145)"
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4510 TCWC HPCLC | 4510 TCWC HPCLC | ||
| − | HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 006 | + | HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 006...CORRECTED |
[[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU | MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU | ||
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 | 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 | ||
| + | CORRECTED FIRST PARA RE SHIP REPORTS | ||
GRIEL CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WAY WESTWARD... GETTING EVER STRONGER... | GRIEL CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WAY WESTWARD... GETTING EVER STRONGER... | ||
| − | RECENT SHIP REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN A | + | RECENT SHIP REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN A 100-NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE |
| − | OF GRIEL HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 100 KT. GRIEL IS STRENGTHENING FAIRLY | + | OF GRIEL HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS GUSTS TO 100 KT AND SUSTAINED WINDS TO |
| − | + | 95 KT. GRIEL IS STRENGTHENING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN 29-DEG C WATERS. A | |
| − | + | 0214H HPT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED A FEW 95-KT RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS | |
| − | + | ... AS WELL AS A FEW CLEAN 80-KT VECTORS. AT 0133H PAX... UHWF REPORTED | |
| − | + | T-NUMBER OF 5.0... WHILE AT 0241H PAX... THE MOST RECENT DATA WE HAVE... | |
| − | + | HDCW REPORTED T-NUMBER OF 4.5. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL OF THESE FACTORS | |
| − | + | ... I HAVE DECIDED TO SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT TO ACCOUNT FOR | |
| − | + | THE 95-KT SHIP REPORTS... PLUS 85 KT IS A GOOD MEAN BETWEEN T-NUMBERS | |
| − | + | 4.5 OF 77 KT AND 5.0 OF 90 KT. THIS MAKES GRIEL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. | |
AT 3 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.8 SOUTH | AT 3 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.8 SOUTH | ||
Revision as of 08:42, 13 September 2006
| Hurricane Griel | |
|---|---|
| Category 2 hurricane | |
| As of: | 0200 local time June 12, 2145 |
| Location: | 13.8°S 7.5°E About 2870 km (1795 miles) east of Puerto Nuevo, Vassfforcia |
| Maximum winds: |
155 km/h (100 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 973 hPa |
| Movement: | West at 26 km/h (16 mph) |
| See latest advisory below. Past advisories and discussions available here | |
4510 TCWC HPCLC HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 006...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 CORRECTED FIRST PARA RE SHIP REPORTS GRIEL CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WAY WESTWARD... GETTING EVER STRONGER... RECENT SHIP REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN A 100-NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE OF GRIEL HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS GUSTS TO 100 KT AND SUSTAINED WINDS TO 95 KT. GRIEL IS STRENGTHENING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN 29-DEG C WATERS. A 0214H HPT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED A FEW 95-KT RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS ... AS WELL AS A FEW CLEAN 80-KT VECTORS. AT 0133H PAX... UHWF REPORTED T-NUMBER OF 5.0... WHILE AT 0241H PAX... THE MOST RECENT DATA WE HAVE... HDCW REPORTED T-NUMBER OF 4.5. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL OF THESE FACTORS ... I HAVE DECIDED TO SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 95-KT SHIP REPORTS... PLUS 85 KT IS A GOOD MEAN BETWEEN T-NUMBERS 4.5 OF 77 KT AND 5.0 OF 90 KT. THIS MAKES GRIEL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. AT 3 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LATITUDE 7.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 2870 KM... 1795 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 KM/H... 100 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H OR 16 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 HPA/MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AWAITING GRIEL IS VERY LITTLE. THE 29-DEG C WATERS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO THE EDGE OF VENERATIO... WHEN IT DROPS OFF TO 27 DEG C. WIND SHEAR IS LOW... 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT LAND IS IN THE WAY OR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STORM TO IMPACT IT... YET. THEREFORE IT IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE... AND GRIEL MAY BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM... AND WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN HOW UNRELIABLE THEY ARE IN THIS AREA OF THE HEARTLAND. THEREFORE... THEY HAVE BEEN DISREGARDED. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 KM... 55 MILES ... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR VASSFFORCIA. THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES... PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA. EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 12/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 07.5 E... 85 KT... CAT 2 12/0900H... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 95 KT 12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E...105 KT... CAT 3 13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E...115 KT... CAT 4 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...125 KT 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...130 KT 15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...140 KT... CAT 5 16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 7.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 155 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT BY THE OREAN HEADQUARTERS UNDER REGIONAL HEADER 4510 TCWC HPCOR. FORECASTER RINDLI
