Difference between revisions of "TD10 (2145)"

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{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel
 
{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel
 
|category=cat2|type=Category 2 hurricane
 
|category=cat2|type=Category 2 hurricane
−
|local time=0200
+
|local time=0800
 
|date=June 12
 
|date=June 12
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.8&deg;S 7.5&deg;E]<br/>About 2870 km (1795 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]]
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.9&deg;S 6.9&deg;E]<br/>About 2710 km (1695 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]]
−
|winds=155 km/h (100 mph)
+
|winds=175 km/h (110 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
−
|pressure=973 hPa
+
|pressure=969 hPa
 
|movement=West at 26 km/h (16 mph)
 
|movement=West at 26 km/h (16 mph)
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
----
 
----
−
  4510 TCWC HPCLC
+
  4510 TCWC HPCOR
−
  HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 006...CORRECTED
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  HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 007
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
−
  MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
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  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
−
  1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145
+
  7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145
−
CORRECTED FIRST PARA RE SHIP REPORTS
+
 
   
 
   
−
  GRIEL CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WAY WESTWARD... GETTING EVER STRONGER...
+
  GRIEL STRENGTHENS FURTHER AND IS NOW A 95-KT HURRICANE...
−
RECENT SHIP REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN A 100-NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE
+
−
OF GRIEL HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS GUSTS TO 100 KT AND SUSTAINED WINDS TO
+
−
95 KT. GRIEL IS STRENGTHENING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN 29-DEG C WATERS. A
+
−
0214H HPT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED A FEW 95-KT RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS
+
−
... AS WELL AS A FEW CLEAN 80-KT VECTORS. AT 0133H PAX... UHWF REPORTED
+
−
T-NUMBER OF 5.0... WHILE AT 0241H PAX... THE MOST RECENT DATA WE HAVE...
+
−
HDCW REPORTED T-NUMBER OF 4.5. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL OF THESE FACTORS
+
−
... I HAVE DECIDED TO SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT TO ACCOUNT FOR
+
−
THE 95-KT SHIP REPORTS... PLUS 85 KT IS A GOOD MEAN BETWEEN T-NUMBERS
+
−
4.5 OF 77 KT AND 5.0 OF 90 KT. THIS MAKES GRIEL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 3 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.8 SOUTH
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  AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.S SOUTH
−
  LATITUDE 7.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 2870 KM... 1795 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
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  LATITUDE 6.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 2710 KM... 1695 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
−
  NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 KM/H...  
+
  NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 KM/H...  
−
  100 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
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  110 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A HIGH-END CATEGORY TWO
−
  THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 26
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  HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND COULD SOON
−
KM/H OR 16 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 HPA/MBAR. THIS
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BECOME THE SEASON'S SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
−
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THROUGH THE
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WEST AT 26 KM/H OR 16 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 HPA/
−
  FORECAST PERIOD.
+
MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
 +
  THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
   
 
   
 +
I WILL HAVE TO BORROW HEAVILY FROM THE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION...
 
  AWAITING GRIEL IS VERY LITTLE. THE 29-DEG C WATERS WILL CONTINUE WEST
 
  AWAITING GRIEL IS VERY LITTLE. THE 29-DEG C WATERS WILL CONTINUE WEST
 
  TO THE EDGE OF VENERATIO... WHEN IT DROPS OFF TO 27 DEG C. WIND
 
  TO THE EDGE OF VENERATIO... WHEN IT DROPS OFF TO 27 DEG C. WIND
Line 53: Line 44:
 
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM...
 
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM...
 
  175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE
 
  175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE
−
  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 KM... 55 MILES
+
  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 KM... 60 MILES
 
  ... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
 
  ... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
 
  MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR VASSFFORCIA.
 
  MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR VASSFFORCIA.
Line 64: Line 55:
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
−
  INITIAL TIME IS 12/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
+
  INITIAL TIME IS 12/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
−
   INITIAL... 13.8 S 07.5 E... 85 KT... CAT 2
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   INITIAL... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 95 KT... CAT 2
−
  12/0900H... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 95 KT  
+
  12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E...105 KT... CAT 3
−
  12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E...105 KT... CAT 3 <!-- 12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E...110 KT -->
+
  12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E...110 KT <!-- 13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E...115 KT... CAT 4 -->
−
  13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E...115 KT... CAT 4 <!-- 13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...120 KT -->
+
  13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...120 KT... CAT 4 <!-- 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...125 KT -->
−
  13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...125 KT <!-- 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...125 KT -->
+
  13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...125 KT <!-- 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...130 KT -->
−
  14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...130 KT <!-- 14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...135 KT  
+
  14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...135 KT <!-- 14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...135 KT  
−
  14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...140 KT... CAT 5-->
+
  14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...140 KT... CAT 5 15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...140 KT... CAT 5 -->
−
15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...140 KT... CAT 5 <!-- 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...120 KT  
+
15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT <!-- 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...120 KT  
−
  15/2100H... 13.9 S 00.8 W...105 KT -->
+
  15/2100H... 13.9 S 00.8 W...105 KT 16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT -->
−
  16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT  
+
  16/0900H... 13.8 S 02.0 W... 95 KT
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 7.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
+
  REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 6.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
−
  WINDS NEAR 155 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 HPA...
+
  WINDS NEAR 175 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 HPA...
 
  MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H.
 
  MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT BY THE
+
  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT.
−
OREAN HEADQUARTERS UNDER REGIONAL HEADER 4510 TCWC HPCOR.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER RINDLI
+
  FORECASTER CALTS

Revision as of 03:28, 15 September 2006

Latest storm information
Hurricane Griel
Category 2 hurricane
As of: 0800 local time June 12, 2145
Location: 13.9°S 6.9°E
About 2710 km (1695 miles) east of Puerto Nuevo, Vassfforcia
Maximum
winds: 		175 km/h (110 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 969 hPa
Movement: West at 26 km/h (16 mph)
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here 
4510 TCWC HPCOR
HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 007
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145

GRIEL STRENGTHENS FURTHER AND IS NOW A 95-KT HURRICANE...

AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.S SOUTH
LATITUDE 6.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 2710 KM... 1695 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 KM/H... 
110 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A HIGH-END CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND COULD SOON
BECOME THE SEASON'S SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST AT 26 KM/H OR 16 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 HPA/
MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

I WILL HAVE TO BORROW HEAVILY FROM THE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION... 
AWAITING GRIEL IS VERY LITTLE. THE 29-DEG C WATERS WILL CONTINUE WEST
TO THE EDGE OF VENERATIO... WHEN IT DROPS OFF TO 27 DEG C. WIND
SHEAR IS LOW... 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT LAND IS IN THE WAY OR
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STORM TO IMPACT IT... YET. THEREFORE IT IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE... AND
GRIEL MAY BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM... AND WE
HAVE ALREADY SEEN HOW UNRELIABLE THEY ARE IN THIS AREA OF THE HEARTLAND.
THEREFORE... THEY HAVE BEEN DISREGARDED.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM...
175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 KM... 60 MILES
... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR VASSFFORCIA.

THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL
STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES...
PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA.
EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES...
PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. 

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 12/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 95 KT... CAT 2
12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E...105 KT... CAT 3
12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E...110 KT 
13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...120 KT... CAT 4 
13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...125 KT 
14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...135 KT 
15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT 
16/0900H... 13.8 S 02.0 W... 95 KT

REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 6.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 175 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 HPA...
MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER CALTS
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