Difference between revisions of "TD10 (2145)"

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{{WatchesWarnings map|imagename=Watch_Warn_NS_TD_4510.png}}
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{| class="infobox" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" style="background:transparent;text-align:center; font-size:95%; width:12.6em; float:right;"
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|+ colspan="7" nowrap="nowrap"| <small>Current warnings and watches</small>
 +
|-
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|http://img75.imageshack.us/img75/467/watchwarnnstd4510lk9.png
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|}
 
{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel
 
{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel
 
|category=cat4|type=Category 4 major hurricane
 
|category=cat4|type=Category 4 major hurricane
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|local time=2000
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|local time=0400
 
|date=June 12
 
|date=June 12
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
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|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.9&deg;S 5.7&deg;E]<br/>About 2290 km (1430 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]]
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|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.9&deg;S 5.2&deg;E]<br/>About 2130 km (1330 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]]
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|winds=215 km/h (135 mph)
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|winds=220 km/h (140 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
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|pressure=954 hPa
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|pressure=944 hPa
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|movement=West at 22 km/h (14 mph)
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|movement=West at 24 km/h (15 mph)
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
 
  4510 TCWC HPCOR
 
  4510 TCWC HPCOR
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  HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 009
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  HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 010
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
 
  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
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  7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145
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  1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145
 
   
 
   
−
  ..GRIEL STRENGTHENS INTO SEASON'S SECOND CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
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  GRIEL CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...
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TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT... SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO
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−
NACIONAL UNV HAS ISSUED EVACUATION ORDERS... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL
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−
AUTHORITIES FOR MORE INFORMATION.
+
 
   
 
   
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  MODELS INITIALISED GRIEL AT 110 KT... BUT GRIEL'S IMPRESSIVE
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  AT 3 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM PRUBDABLIA
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  SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR SETTING INITIAL
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  SOUTHWARD FOR 385 KM... AND FOR THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA. TROPICAL
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INTENSITY AT 115 KNOTS... OR CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. FURTHER
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  STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO
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  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND GRIEL COULD BECOME A
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  AND THE ADJACENT COAST. HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
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  CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE.
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CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO AND THE ADJACENT COAST.
 
   
 
   
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  AT 9 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.9 SOUTH
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  AT 3 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.9 SOUTH
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  LATITUDE 5.7 EAST... OR ABOUT 2290 KM... 1430 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
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  LATITUDE 5.2 EAST... OR ABOUT 2130 KM... 1330 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
 
  NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
 
  NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
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  215 KM/H... 135 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS
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  220 KM/H... 140 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS
 
  CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE
 
  CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE
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  SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 22 KM/H OR 14 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
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  SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
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  IS 954 HPA/MBAR.
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  IS 944 HPA/MBAR.  
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TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE
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PUERTO NUEVO... AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT COAST. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
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REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF VASSFFORICA... FROM THE COAST
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OF IBPORTIA NORTHWARD TO PRUBDABLIA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT
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TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24
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TO 36 HOURS... WHILE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM
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CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
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  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 340 KM...
 
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 340 KM...
 
  215 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH...  
 
  215 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH...  
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  WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 KM...
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  WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 KM...
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  75 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE.
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  90 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE.
 
   
 
   
 
  HURRICANE ADVISORY/ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE UNV SERVICIO
 
  HURRICANE ADVISORY/ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE UNV SERVICIO
Line 56: Line 49:
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
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  INITIAL TIME IS 12/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT
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  INITIAL TIME IS 13/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
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   INITIAL... 13.9 S 05.7 E...115 KT... CAT 4
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   INITIAL... 13.9 S 05.2 E...120 KT... CAT 4
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13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E...120 KT
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  13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...125 KT  
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  13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...125 KT <!-- 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...125 KT -->
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13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...130 KT <!-- 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...135 KT -->
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13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...130 KT <!-- 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...130 KT -->
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14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...140 KT... CAT 5 <!-- 14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...145 KT -->
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14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...135 KT <!-- 14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...135 KT -->
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14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...150 KT... CAT 5 <!-- 14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...155 KT... CAT 5 -->
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14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...140 KT... CAT 5 <!-- 15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...140 KT... CAT 5  15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...120 KT -->
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15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...145 KT <!-- 15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...120 KT  15/2100H... 13.9 S 00.8 W...105 KT -->
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  15/2100H... 13.9 S 00.8 W...105 KT <!-- 16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT 16/0900H... 13.7 S 02.0 W... 95 KT  16/1500H... 13.6 S 02.5 W... 75 KT...VERY CLOSE TO LAND -->
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16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT... CAT 3 <!-- 16/0900H... 13.7 S 02.0 W... 95 KT  16/1500H... 13.6 S 02.5 W... 75 KT...VERY CLOSE TO LAND  16/2100H... 13.0 S 03.5 W... 50 KT... INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL -->
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  16/2100H... 13.0 S 03.5 W... 50 KT... INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
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17/0300H... 11.0 S 05.2 W... 25 KT... EXTRATROPICAL/DISSIPATING INLAND
 
   
 
   
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  REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 5.7 EAST. MAXIMUM
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  REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 5.2 EAST. MAXIMUM
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  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 215 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
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  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 220 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
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  PRESSURE 954 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 22 KM/H.
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  PRESSURE 944 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
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  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.
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  THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT...
 +
FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 12 PM HPT.
 
   
 
   
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  FORECASTERS JARVINEN/HARDING
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  FORECASTER LAVAL

Revision as of 03:42, 22 September 2006

Current warnings and watches
watchwarnnstd4510lk9.png
Latest storm information
Hurricane Griel
Category 4 major hurricane
As of: 0400 local time June 12, 2145
Location: 13.9°S 5.2°E
About 2130 km (1330 miles) east of Puerto Nuevo, Vassfforcia
Maximum
winds: 		220 km/h (140 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 944 hPa
Movement: West at 24 km/h (15 mph)
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here 
4510 TCWC HPCOR
HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 010
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145

GRIEL CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 3 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM PRUBDABLIA
SOUTHWARD FOR 385 KM... AND FOR THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO
AND THE ADJACENT COAST. HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO AND THE ADJACENT COAST.

AT 3 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.9 SOUTH
LATITUDE 5.2 EAST... OR ABOUT 2130 KM... 1330 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
220 KM/H... 140 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 944 HPA/MBAR. 

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 340 KM...
215 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... 
WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 KM...
90 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE.

HURRICANE ADVISORY/ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE UNV SERVICIO
METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL... PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL BULLETINS FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 13/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 13.9 S 05.2 E...120 KT... CAT 4
13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...125 KT 
13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...130 KT 
14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...140 KT... CAT 5 
14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...150 KT... CAT 5 
15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...145 KT 
16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT... CAT 3 
17/0300H... 11.0 S 05.2 W... 25 KT... EXTRATROPICAL/DISSIPATING INLAND

REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 5.2 EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 220 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 944 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT...
FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 12 PM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL
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