Difference between revisions of "TD10 (2145)"

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|+ colspan="7" nowrap="nowrap"| <small>Current warnings and watches</small>
 
|+ colspan="7" nowrap="nowrap"| <small>Current warnings and watches</small>
 
|-
 
|-
−
|http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/1498/watchwarnnstd4510nm6.png
+
|http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/9476/watchwarnnstd4510qc8.png
 
|}
 
|}
 
{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel
 
{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel
 
|category=cat4|type=Category 4 major hurricane
 
|category=cat4|type=Category 4 major hurricane
−
|local time=1400
+
|local time=2000
 
|date=June 13
 
|date=June 13
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.8&deg;S 3.9&deg;E]<br/>About 1870 km (1170 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]]
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.8&deg;S 3.4&deg;E]<br/>About 1775 km (1110 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]]
−
|winds=240 km/h (150 mph)
+
|winds=250 km/h (155 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
−
|pressure=928 hPa
+
|pressure=914 hPa
−
|movement=West at 22 km/h (14 mph)
+
|movement=West at 36 km/h (23 mph)
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
|advisory=latest}}
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
 
  4510 TCWC HPCOR
 
  4510 TCWC HPCOR
−
  HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 012
+
  HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 013
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
 
  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
−
  1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145
+
  7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145
 
   
 
   
−
  GRIEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... NOW A VERY DANGEROUS HIGH-END
+
  GRIEL ALMOST A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...
−
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... NEW RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE IN THE
+
−
REGION...
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 3 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR ANIMUS ANI-01
+
  AT 9 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING/HURRICANE WATCHES FOR
−
  HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
+
  SOUTHERN MONTAURA/NORTHERN IBPORTIA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
 +
A HURRICANE WARNING.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 3 PM HPT THE HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
+
  AT 9 PM HPT ALL VENERATIO WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... AFTER
−
SOUTHWEST COAST OF VENERATIO VEN-01 HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL
+
  CONFIRMATION THAT ALL SCIENTISTS/BACKPACKERS EVACUATED.
−
STORM WARNINGS... WHILE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE
+
−
  WATCHES FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
+
−
HURRICANE WARNINGS.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 3 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD
+
  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
−
  HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... A TROPICAL
+
  MONTAURA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE EDGE OF THE
−
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE
+
  HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
−
  CAPE OF MONTAURA... WHILE A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
+
−
MUCH OF THE SAME STRETCH OF COASTLINE.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 3 PM HPT A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF
+
  AT 9 PM HPT A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
−
  VASSFFORCIA NEAR THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
+
  SOUTHERN MONTAURA COAST... CIUDAD ESTADIO DE PUERTO NUEVO
−
  AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA.
+
  ... AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN IBPORTIA COAST NEAR THE CAPE.
 
   
 
   
−
AT 3 PM HPT THE GOVERNMENT OF VASSFFORCIA HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL
 
−
STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE
 
−
PUERTO NUEVO AND THE ADJACENT COASTLINE TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
 
−
 
−
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
 
−
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
 
  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
 
  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
 
  EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
 
  EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
−
  LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WATCHES
+
  LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WARNINGS
−
  MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA...
+
  MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
−
  GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF
+
  WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE
−
LIFE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT
+
  SHOULD BE COMPLETE.
−
  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
+
−
HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE
+
−
COMPLETE.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 3 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH
+
GRIEL HAS SPED UP A BIT MORE... AND MAY MAKE LANDFALL SOONER
−
  LONGITUDE 3.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 1870 KM... 1170 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
+
THAN EXPECTED. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ACCORDINGLY BEEN ADJUSTED.
 +
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST INTENSITY HAVE BEEN MADE... FOR THE EARLY
 +
PART OF THE FORECAST.
 +
 +
  AT 9 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH
 +
  LONGITUDE 3.4 EAST... OR ABOUT 1775 KM... 1110 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
 
  NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
 
  NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
−
  240 KM/H... 150 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS
+
  250 KM/H... 155 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL REMAINS A DANGEROUS
 
  CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...
 
  CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...
−
  AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED.
+
  AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE SYSTEM IS
−
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 22 KM/H OR 14 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL
+
MOVING WEST AT 36 KM/H OR 23 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 914
−
PRESSURE IS 928 HPA/MBAR.  
+
HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR.  
 
   
 
   
 
  AN AIR FORCE (AFLE) RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
 
  AN AIR FORCE (AFLE) RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
Line 77: Line 67:
 
  OUTWARD UP TO 520 KM... 325 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE
 
  OUTWARD UP TO 520 KM... 325 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE
 
  WEST AND NORTH...  WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD
 
  WEST AND NORTH...  WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD
−
  UP TO 330 KM... 205 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...
+
  UP TO 330 KM... 205 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE.
−
THE CAPES OF IBPORTIA AND MONTAURA MAY FEEL TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
+
−
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
−
  INITIAL TIME IS 13/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
+
  INITIAL TIME IS 13/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT
−
   INITIAL... 13.8 S 03.9 E...130 KT... CAT 4  
+
   INITIAL... 13.8 S 03.4 E...135 KT... CAT 4
−
13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...135 KT
+
  14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...140 KT... CAT 5
−
  14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...140 KT... CAT 5 <!-- 14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...145 KT... CAT 5 -->
+
14/0900H... 13.8 S 01.3 E...145 KT <!-- 14/1500H... 13.8 S 00.2 E...150 KT -->
−
14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...150 KT <!-- 14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...155 KT -->
+
14/2100H... 13.7 S 00.9 W...155 KT <!-- 15/0300H... 13.6 S 01.9 W...135 KT -->
−
15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...145 KT <!-- 15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT... CAT 4 -->
+
  15/0900H... 13.6 S 02.5 W...110 KT... CAT 3 NEAR LANDFALL <!-- 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...120 KT... CAT 4 -->
−
  15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...120 KT... CAT 4 <!-- 15/2100H... 13.9 S 00.8 W...105 KT  16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT... CAT 3 16/0900H... 13.7 S 02.0 W... 95 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL -->
+
  15/2100H... 13.1 S 03.7 W... 45 KT... INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL
−
  16/1500H... 13.6 S 02.5 W... 85 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL <!-- 16/2100H... 13.0 S 03.5 W... 50 KT... INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 17/0300H... 11.0 S 05.2 W... 25 KT... EXTRATROPICAL/DISSIPATING INLAND -->
+
  16/0300H...ABSORBED
−
  17/1500H...DISSIPATED OVER WATER NORTH OF VASSFORCIA LA SERENÍSIMA
+
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 3.9 EAST. MAXIMUM
+
  REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 3.4 EAST. MAXIMUM
−
  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 240 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
+
  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 250 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
−
  PRESSURE 928 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 22 KM/H.
+
  PRESSURE 914 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 36 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT.
+
  THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.
 
   
 
   
 
  FORECASTER HUNTER
 
  FORECASTER HUNTER
Line 110: Line 97:
 
  HURRICANE GRIEL...
 
  HURRICANE GRIEL...
 
   
 
   
−
  POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE GRIEL IS SPINNING TOWARDS VASSFFORCIA...
+
  ***EMERGENCY***
−
  ENSURE FULL EVACUATION OF LOW-LYING AREAS. AREAS AT AN ALTITUDE OF BELOW
+
GRIEL TOSSES UP A SURPRISE...
−
  SEA LEVEL WILL FACE MAJOR FLOODING PROBLEMS CAUSED BY STORM SURGE.
+
  NOW MOVING MUCH QUICKER...
 +
  EMERGENCY EVACUATIONS ARE NOW NECESSARY. GRIEL WILL MAKE LANDFALL
 +
IN ABOUT TWO DAYS AS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE STORM... DUE TO ITS
 +
SPEED IT WILL HAVE LESS TIME TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS.
 +
 +
WINDSPEEDS OF UP TO 190 KM/H SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING LANDFALL.
 +
CIUDAD ESTADIO/PUERTO NUEVO SHOULD BE FULLY EVACUATED.
 
   
 
   
−
  GRIEL WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... WEAKENING
+
  INLAND... A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHING IN FROM DASHAKE TO THE
−
  FROM ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR
+
  SOUTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB GRIEL... SO VASSFORCIA LA
−
  THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MONTAURA.
+
  SERENÍSIMA SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR. CITIES AND TOWNS NEAR RIVERS
 +
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FLOODS.
 
   
 
   
 
  ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS
 
  DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS
 
  JUNE 13, 2145
 
  JUNE 13, 2145

Revision as of 00:35, 2 October 2006

Current warnings and watches
watchwarnnstd4510qc8.png
Latest storm information
Hurricane Griel
Category 4 major hurricane
As of: 2000 local time June 13, 2145
Location: 13.8°S 3.4°E
About 1775 km (1110 miles) east of Puerto Nuevo, Vassfforcia
Maximum
winds: 		250 km/h (155 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 914 hPa
Movement: West at 36 km/h (23 mph)
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here 
4510 TCWC HPCOR
HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 013
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145

GRIEL ALMOST A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

AT 9 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING/HURRICANE WATCHES FOR
SOUTHERN MONTAURA/NORTHERN IBPORTIA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE WARNING.

AT 9 PM HPT ALL VENERATIO WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... AFTER
CONFIRMATION THAT ALL SCIENTISTS/BACKPACKERS EVACUATED.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
MONTAURA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE EDGE OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

AT 9 PM HPT A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN MONTAURA COAST... CIUDAD ESTADIO DE PUERTO NUEVO
... AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN IBPORTIA COAST NEAR THE CAPE.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WARNINGS
MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE
SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

GRIEL HAS SPED UP A BIT MORE... AND MAY MAKE LANDFALL SOONER
THAN EXPECTED. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ACCORDINGLY BEEN ADJUSTED.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST INTENSITY HAVE BEEN MADE... FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE FORECAST.

AT 9 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH
LONGITUDE 3.4 EAST... OR ABOUT 1775 KM... 1110 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
250 KM/H... 155 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL REMAINS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...
AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST AT 36 KM/H OR 23 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 914
HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. 

AN AIR FORCE (AFLE) RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
THIS SYSTEM. DETAILS WILL BE KNOWN BY THE 3 AM ADVISORY.

GRIEL IS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 520 KM... 325 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE
WEST AND NORTH...  WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 330 KM... 205 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 13/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 13.8 S 03.4 E...135 KT... CAT 4
14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...140 KT... CAT 5
14/0900H... 13.8 S 01.3 E...145 KT 
14/2100H... 13.7 S 00.9 W...155 KT 
15/0900H... 13.6 S 02.5 W...110 KT... CAT 3 NEAR LANDFALL 
15/2100H... 13.1 S 03.7 W... 45 KT... INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL
16/0300H...ABSORBED

REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 3.4 EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 250 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 914 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 36 KM/H.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR
INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE REGARDING HURRICANE GRIEL (4510)
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN

INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE...
FOR THE GOVERNMENTS OF LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... AND VASSFFORCIA... AS WELL
AS OTHER HEARTLAND GOVERNMENTS CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
HURRICANE GRIEL...

***EMERGENCY***
GRIEL TOSSES UP A SURPRISE...
NOW MOVING MUCH QUICKER...
EMERGENCY EVACUATIONS ARE NOW NECESSARY. GRIEL WILL MAKE LANDFALL
IN ABOUT TWO DAYS AS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE STORM... DUE TO ITS
SPEED IT WILL HAVE LESS TIME TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS.

WINDSPEEDS OF UP TO 190 KM/H SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING LANDFALL.
CIUDAD ESTADIO/PUERTO NUEVO SHOULD BE FULLY EVACUATED.

INLAND... A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHING IN FROM DASHAKE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB GRIEL... SO VASSFORCIA LA
SERENÍSIMA SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR. CITIES AND TOWNS NEAR RIVERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FLOODS.

ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS
JUNE 13, 2145
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