Difference between revisions of "TD10 (2145)"
From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
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|+ colspan="7" nowrap="nowrap"| <small>Current warnings and watches</small> | |+ colspan="7" nowrap="nowrap"| <small>Current warnings and watches</small> | ||
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| − | |http:// | + | |http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/9488/watchwarnnstd4510fj3.png |
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{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel | {{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel | ||
|category=cat5|type=Category 5 major hurricane | |category=cat5|type=Category 5 major hurricane | ||
| − | |local time= | + | |local time=0800 |
|date=June 14 | |date=June 14 | ||
|year=2145 | |year=2145 | ||
| − | |location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13. | + | |location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.7°S 1.5°E]<br/>About 1160 km (725 miles) east-northeast of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]] |
| − | |winds= | + | |winds=270 km/h (170 mph) |
|windtype=1-minute sustained | |windtype=1-minute sustained | ||
| − | |pressure= | + | |pressure=899 hPa |
| − | |movement= | + | |movement=WNW at 41 km/h (26 mph) |
|advisory=latest}} | |advisory=latest}} | ||
<div style="clear: both"></div> | <div style="clear: both"></div> | ||
---- | ---- | ||
4510 TCWC HPCOR | 4510 TCWC HPCOR | ||
| − | HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY | + | HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 015 |
[[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN | MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN | ||
| − | + | 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145 | |
| − | AFLE AIRCRAFT | + | MORE INFORMATION COMING IN FROM AFLE AIRCRAFT... |
| − | + | GRIEL'S NEW MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE CRACKS THE 900 HPA LEVEL... | |
| − | + | GRIEL NOW STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE... ALTHOUGH A SLOW WEAKENING | |
| − | + | SHOULD BEGIN SOON... | |
| − | + | GRIEL IS EVEN FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF | |
MONTAURA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE EDGE OF THE HURRICANE | MONTAURA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE EDGE OF THE HURRICANE | ||
| − | WARNING AREA. | + | WARNING AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. |
| − | A HURRICANE WARNING | + | A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN |
| − | COAST | + | COAST OF VASSFFORCIA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE OF |
| − | IBPORTIA | + | IBPORTIA. |
| − | + | HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN | |
| − | + | THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE | |
| − | + | AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | WITH THE | + | THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WITH THE RELOCATION OF |
| − | + | GRIEL'S CENTRE. I AM GOING WITH TENTATIVELY 290/22... WEST-NORTHWEST | |
| − | + | AT 22 KNOTS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... I HAVE HAD TO UPGRADE THE | |
| − | + | TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR PRUBDABLIA TO HURRICANE WARNINGS. THIS | |
| + | MAY MEAN THAT EMERGENCY EVACUATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PRUBDABLIA | ||
| + | ... IT IS LIKELY THE CITY WILL GET THE WINDS OF A CAT 2 HURRICANE. | ||
| − | + | GRIEL IS A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH THE POWER TO KILL. GRIEL'S | |
| − | + | TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL START TO LASH THE WARNING AREAS | |
| − | + | WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 SOUTH | |
| − | + | LONGITUDE 1.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 1160 KM... 725 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST | |
| − | + | OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. I AM HOPING THAT THIS HURRICANE CHANGES | |
| − | + | TRACK AND HEADS BACK SOUTH TOWARDS THE NOW-FULLY-EVACUATED PUERTO | |
| − | + | NUEVO... RATHER THAN TARGET A NON-EVACUATED AREA DUE TO THE DIFFICULTIES | |
| − | + | IN FORECASTING THIS STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR | |
| − | + | 270 KM/H... 170 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS NOW A DANGEROUS | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | AT | + | |
| − | LONGITUDE | + | |
| − | NUEVO | + | |
| − | + | ||
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... | CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... | ||
| − | + | BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST | |
| − | + | AT 41 KM/H OR 26 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 899 HECTOPASCALS OR | |
| − | + | MBAR. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED... NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. | |
| − | + | GRIEL REMAINS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | GRIEL | + | |
OUTWARD UP TO 610 KM... 380 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE | OUTWARD UP TO 610 KM... 380 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE | ||
WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD | WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD | ||
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OFFICIAL FORECAST | OFFICIAL FORECAST | ||
| − | INITIAL TIME IS 14/ | + | INITIAL TIME IS 14/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT |
| − | INITIAL... 13. | + | INITIAL... 13.7 S 01.5 E...145 KT... CAT 5 |
| − | 14/ | + | 14/1500H... 13.8 S 00.5 E...140 KT |
| − | + | 14/2100H... 13.7 S 00.5 W...130 KT <!-- 15/0300H... 13.6 S 01.6 W...120 KT --> | |
| − | + | 15/0900H... 13.6 S 02.5 W...105 KT... CAT 3 NEAR LANDFALL <!-- 15/1500H... 13.4 S 00.3 W... 55 KT...INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED --> | |
| − | + | 15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM | |
| − | + | ||
| + | IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS VERY VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. | ||
| − | REPEATING THE | + | REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.7 SOUTH 1.5 EAST. MAXIMUM |
| − | SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR | + | SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 270 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL |
| − | PRESSURE | + | PRESSURE 899 HPA... MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 41 KM/H. |
| − | THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT | + | THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT. |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | FORECASTERS HUNTER/JOHNS | |
---- | ---- | ||
ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR | ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR | ||
| Line 116: | Line 99: | ||
***EMERGENCY*** | ***EMERGENCY*** | ||
| − | + | RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRIEL IN AN UNEXPECTED POSITION... | |
| − | LANDFALL NOW WITHIN | + | LANDFALL NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. |
| − | + | GRIEL HAS TAKEN A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW HEADING | |
| − | + | FOR SOUTHEASTERN LETÍA/MONTAURA CAPE. ON THIS NEW FORECAST TRACK... | |
| − | + | PRUBDABLIA WILL ALSO RECEIVE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND NOT JUST | |
| − | WINDS | + | TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS. THEREFORE... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS |
| − | + | BEEN ISSUED FOR PRUBDABLIA... UP FROM A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. | |
| − | + | IT IS MY PERSONAL HOPE THAT THIS HURRICANE THROWS UP ONE MORE | |
| − | + | SURPRISE AND TURNS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH AND MAKES LANDFALL IN | |
| + | THE ALREADY-EMPTY CITY OF PUERTO NUEVO... RATHER THAN CAUSING | ||
| + | HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE. | ||
| − | + | REGARDLESS... IT IS NOW ALMOST TOO LATE TO EVACUATE. THE WINDOW | |
| − | + | FOR SAFE EVACUATION NOW STANDS AT NINE HOURS. AFTER NINE HOURS... | |
| − | + | NO FURTHER EVACUATIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE AND EVERYONE SHOULD | |
| − | + | CALMLY HUNKER DOWN AND SIT OUT THE STORM. | |
ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ||
DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS | DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS | ||
JUNE 14, 2145 | JUNE 14, 2145 | ||
Revision as of 07:17, 5 October 2006
|
| Hurricane Griel | |
|---|---|
| Category 5 major hurricane | |
| As of: | 0800 local time June 14, 2145 |
| Location: | 13.7°S 1.5°E About 1160 km (725 miles) east-northeast of Puerto Nuevo, Vassfforcia |
| Maximum winds: |
270 km/h (170 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 899 hPa |
| Movement: | WNW at 41 km/h (26 mph) |
| See latest advisory below. Past advisories and discussions available here | |
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 015 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145 MORE INFORMATION COMING IN FROM AFLE AIRCRAFT... GRIEL'S NEW MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE CRACKS THE 900 HPA LEVEL... GRIEL NOW STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE... ALTHOUGH A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON... GRIEL IS EVEN FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MONTAURA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE EDGE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF VASSFFORCIA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WITH THE RELOCATION OF GRIEL'S CENTRE. I AM GOING WITH TENTATIVELY 290/22... WEST-NORTHWEST AT 22 KNOTS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... I HAVE HAD TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR PRUBDABLIA TO HURRICANE WARNINGS. THIS MAY MEAN THAT EMERGENCY EVACUATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PRUBDABLIA ... IT IS LIKELY THE CITY WILL GET THE WINDS OF A CAT 2 HURRICANE. GRIEL IS A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH THE POWER TO KILL. GRIEL'S TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL START TO LASH THE WARNING AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 SOUTH LONGITUDE 1.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 1160 KM... 725 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. I AM HOPING THAT THIS HURRICANE CHANGES TRACK AND HEADS BACK SOUTH TOWARDS THE NOW-FULLY-EVACUATED PUERTO NUEVO... RATHER THAN TARGET A NON-EVACUATED AREA DUE TO THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING THIS STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 270 KM/H... 170 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 41 KM/H OR 26 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 899 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED... NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. GRIEL REMAINS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 610 KM... 380 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 370 KM... 230 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 14/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.7 S 01.5 E...145 KT... CAT 5 14/1500H... 13.8 S 00.5 E...140 KT 14/2100H... 13.7 S 00.5 W...130 KT 15/0900H... 13.6 S 02.5 W...105 KT... CAT 3 NEAR LANDFALL 15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS VERY VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.7 SOUTH 1.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 270 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 899 HPA... MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 41 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTERS HUNTER/JOHNS
ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE REGARDING HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE... FOR THE GOVERNMENTS OF LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... AND VASSFFORCIA... AS WELL AS OTHER HEARTLAND GOVERNMENTS CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF HURRICANE GRIEL... ***EMERGENCY*** RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRIEL IN AN UNEXPECTED POSITION... LANDFALL NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. GRIEL HAS TAKEN A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW HEADING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LETÍA/MONTAURA CAPE. ON THIS NEW FORECAST TRACK... PRUBDABLIA WILL ALSO RECEIVE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND NOT JUST TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS. THEREFORE... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PRUBDABLIA... UP FROM A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. IT IS MY PERSONAL HOPE THAT THIS HURRICANE THROWS UP ONE MORE SURPRISE AND TURNS BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH AND MAKES LANDFALL IN THE ALREADY-EMPTY CITY OF PUERTO NUEVO... RATHER THAN CAUSING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE. REGARDLESS... IT IS NOW ALMOST TOO LATE TO EVACUATE. THE WINDOW FOR SAFE EVACUATION NOW STANDS AT NINE HOURS. AFTER NINE HOURS... NO FURTHER EVACUATIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE AND EVERYONE SHOULD CALMLY HUNKER DOWN AND SIT OUT THE STORM. ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS JUNE 14, 2145
