Difference between revisions of "TD10 (2145)"
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| − | { | + | {{WatchesWarnings map|http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/3815/watchwarnnstd4510fu9.png}} |
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{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel | {{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel | ||
| − | |category= | + | |category=cat4|type=Category 4 major hurricane |
| − | |local time= | + | |local time=1400 |
|date=June 14 | |date=June 14 | ||
|year=2145 | |year=2145 | ||
| − | |location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13. | + | |location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.9°S 0.6°E]<br/>About 840 km (525 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]] |
| − | |winds= | + | |winds=250 km/h (155 mph) |
|windtype=1-minute sustained | |windtype=1-minute sustained | ||
| − | |pressure= | + | |pressure=907 hPa |
| − | |movement= | + | |movement=W at 39 km/h (24 mph) |
|advisory=latest}} | |advisory=latest}} | ||
<div style="clear: both"></div> | <div style="clear: both"></div> | ||
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4510 TCWC HPCOR | 4510 TCWC HPCOR | ||
| − | HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY | + | HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 016 |
[[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]] | ||
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN | MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN | ||
| − | + | 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145 | |
| − | + | GRIEL WEAKENS IN COOLER WATERS... ALTHOUGH 26C WATERS ARE | |
| − | + | STILL MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONES. | |
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| − | + | THE HURRICANE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF | |
| + | NORTHEASTERN IBPORTIA NEAR THE SANXAY STRAIT HAS BEEN | ||
| + | DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. | ||
| − | THE | + | THE HURRICANE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR PRUBDABLIA |
| − | + | SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN LETÍA/MONTAURA COAST IN THE | |
| − | + | SANXAY STRAIT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. | |
| − | A HURRICANE WARNING | + | A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF |
| − | + | VASSFFORCIA IN THE BAY OF PUERTO NUEVO... MEANING THE CITY-STATE | |
| − | + | AS WELL AS COASTLINE UP TO EITHER END OF THE TROPICAL STORM | |
| + | WARNING AREAS. | ||
HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN | HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN | ||
| − | THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. | + | THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN |
| − | + | THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA | |
| + | WITHIN 24 HOURS. | ||
| − | + | GRIEL HAS WEAKENED AND HAS NOW TAKEN ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY | |
| − | GRIEL | + | TRACK IN RESPONSE TO ITS WEAKENING. THIS KIND OF MOTION |
| − | + | IRREGULARITIES ARE NOT UNCOMMON IN LARGE SYSTEMS FLUCTUATING IN | |
| − | + | INTENSITY... BUT AS GRIEL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER NO | |
| − | + | FURTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED. | |
| − | ... | + | |
| − | + | GRIEL'S TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED | |
| − | + | IN PRUBDABLIA. | |
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| − | AT | + | AT 3 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 SOUTH |
| − | LONGITUDE | + | LONGITUDE 0.6 EAST... OR ABOUT 840 KM... 525 MILES EAST OF |
| − | + | PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED | |
| − | + | TO ABOUT 250 KM/H... 155 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS NOW A | |
| − | + | CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... | |
| − | + | AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST- | |
| − | + | SOUTHWEST AT 39 KM/H OR 26 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS | |
| − | CATEGORY | + | 907 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. |
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| − | AT | + | |
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| − | GRIEL REMAINS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY | + | GRIEL REMAINS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY |
| − | OUTWARD UP TO 610 KM... 380 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY | + | EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 610 KM... 380 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY |
| − | WEST | + | TO THE WEST OF CENTRE... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND |
| − | UP TO | + | OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. |
OFFICIAL FORECAST | OFFICIAL FORECAST | ||
| − | INITIAL TIME IS 14/ | + | INITIAL TIME IS 14/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT |
| − | INITIAL... 13. | + | INITIAL... 13.9 S 00.6 E...135 KT |
| − | + | 14/2100H... 14.0 S 00.4 W...120 KT | |
| − | 14/2100H... | + | 15/0300H... 14.0 S 01.2 W...110 KT <!-- 15/0900H... 14.1 S 02.2 W...100 KT... CAT 3 NEAR LANDFALL --> |
| − | + | 15/1500H... 13.5 S 03.6 W... 55 KT...INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED | |
15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM | 15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM | ||
| − | + | REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 0.6 EAST. MAXIMUM | |
| + | SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 250 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL | ||
| + | PRESSURE 907 HPA... MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 39 KM/H. | ||
| − | + | THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT. | |
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| − | + | FORECASTER HUNTER | |
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ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR | ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR | ||
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HURRICANE GRIEL... | HURRICANE GRIEL... | ||
| − | + | ALL EVACUATIONS MUST STOP IMMEDIATELY. THE ONSET OF GRIEL IS IN | |
| − | + | LESS THAN THREE HOURS. GRIEL'S TRACK HAS CHANGED AND IT IS NOW | |
| − | + | HEADING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS RELIEF FOR PRUBDABLIA | |
| − | + | WHICH SHOULD NOW NOT GET ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST TROPICAL STORM | |
| − | + | -FORCE... OR AT MOST CATEGORY 1-FORCE... WINDS. | |
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| − | + | THIS WILL BE THE FINAL INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE REGARDING | |
| − | + | HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) UNLESS GRIEL MAKES YET ANOTHER UNEXPECTED | |
| − | + | MOVE. | |
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ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ||
DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS | DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS | ||
JUNE 14, 2145 | JUNE 14, 2145 | ||
Revision as of 13:19, 8 October 2006
|
| Hurricane Griel | |
|---|---|
| Category 4 major hurricane | |
| As of: | 1400 local time June 14, 2145 |
| Location: | 13.9°S 0.6°E About 840 km (525 miles) east of Puerto Nuevo, Vassfforcia |
| Maximum winds: |
250 km/h (155 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 907 hPa |
| Movement: | W at 39 km/h (24 mph) |
| See latest advisory below. Past advisories and discussions available here | |
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 016 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145 GRIEL WEAKENS IN COOLER WATERS... ALTHOUGH 26C WATERS ARE STILL MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE HURRICANE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN IBPORTIA NEAR THE SANXAY STRAIT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE HURRICANE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN LETÍA/MONTAURA COAST IN THE SANXAY STRAIT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF VASSFFORCIA IN THE BAY OF PUERTO NUEVO... MEANING THE CITY-STATE AS WELL AS COASTLINE UP TO EITHER END OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. GRIEL HAS WEAKENED AND HAS NOW TAKEN ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO ITS WEAKENING. THIS KIND OF MOTION IRREGULARITIES ARE NOT UNCOMMON IN LARGE SYSTEMS FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY... BUT AS GRIEL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED. GRIEL'S TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN PRUBDABLIA. AT 3 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 SOUTH LONGITUDE 0.6 EAST... OR ABOUT 840 KM... 525 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 250 KM/H... 155 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWEST AT 39 KM/H OR 26 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 907 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. GRIEL REMAINS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 610 KM... 380 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CENTRE... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 14/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.9 S 00.6 E...135 KT 14/2100H... 14.0 S 00.4 W...120 KT 15/0300H... 14.0 S 01.2 W...110 KT 15/1500H... 13.5 S 03.6 W... 55 KT...INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED 15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 0.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 250 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 907 HPA... MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 39 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE REGARDING HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE... FOR THE GOVERNMENTS OF LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... AND VASSFFORCIA... AS WELL AS OTHER HEARTLAND GOVERNMENTS CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF HURRICANE GRIEL... ALL EVACUATIONS MUST STOP IMMEDIATELY. THE ONSET OF GRIEL IS IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS. GRIEL'S TRACK HAS CHANGED AND IT IS NOW HEADING SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS RELIEF FOR PRUBDABLIA WHICH SHOULD NOW NOT GET ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST TROPICAL STORM -FORCE... OR AT MOST CATEGORY 1-FORCE... WINDS. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE REGARDING HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) UNLESS GRIEL MAKES YET ANOTHER UNEXPECTED MOVE. ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS JUNE 14, 2145
