Difference between revisions of "TD10 (2145)"

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{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Storm Griel
+
{{Storm active2|name=Extra-tropical Storm Griel
|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
+
|category=storm|type=Extratropical storm
|local time=1500
+
|local time=1200
|date=June 11
+
|date=June 15
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.8&deg;S 8.7&deg;E]<br/>About 3160 km (1975 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]]
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 12.0&deg;S 4.0°W]<br/>About 450 km (280 miles) south-southeast of [[Vassfforcia la Serenísima]], [[Vassfforcia]]
 
|winds=100 km/h (65 mph)
 
|winds=100 km/h (65 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
|pressure=990 hPa
+
|pressure=970 hPa
|movement=West at 33 km/h (21 mph)
+
|movement=NNW at 81 km/h (50 mph)
|advisory=latest}}
+
|advisory=final}}
 +
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
  4510 TCWC HPCLC
+
  4510 TCWC HPCOR
  TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 004
+
  TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) FINAL ADVISORY 020
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
  MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
+
  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
  1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145
+
  1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 12 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145
 
   
 
   
  GRIEL STRENGTHENS IN 29 DEG C WARM WATERS... INITIAL INTENSITY NOTCHED
+
  GRIEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ALL REMAINING WARNINGS AND
UPWARDS TO 55 KNOTS. THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE FAILED THE FORECASTERS...
+
  WATCHES DISCONTINUED.
AND THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON WHAT LITTLE EXPERTISE WE HAVE IN
+
  FORECASTING STORMS FOR THIS AREA OF THE REGION.
+
 
   
 
   
  ACCORDINGLY... THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS ONCE AGAIN RAISED TO MAJOR
+
  AT 3 PM HPT... THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE GRIEL
  HURRICANE STRENGTH... CATEGORY THREE WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
+
  WERE CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 SOUTH LONGITUDE 4.0 WEST... OR ABOUT
  OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO HAS GRIEL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PUERTO NUEVO AS
+
450 KM... 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VASSFFORCIA CITY, VASSFFORCIA.
  A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JUST AFTER 96 HOURS.
+
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS 970 HPA...
 +
  AND IT HAS SUSTAINED GALES OF UP TO 110 KM/H... 65 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS
 +
  MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H... 50 MPH.
 
   
 
   
  AT 3 PM HPT TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.8 SOUTH
+
  34-KNOT... OR STORM-FORCE... WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 350 KM...  
LATITUDE 8.7 EAST... OR ABOUT 3160 KM... 1975 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
+
  220 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES...
  NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 KM/H... 65 MPH...
+
  100 MM... ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER INLAND VASSFFORCIA. CITIES AND TOWNS
  WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MOVING WEST AT 33 KM/H OR 21 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL
+
  NEAR RIVERS SHOULD BE PREPARED IN CASE OF RIVERS FLOODING ITS BANKS.
  PRESSURE IS 990 HPA/MBAR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPEECTED TO CONTINUE
+
FOR AT LEAST 36-48 HOURS.
+
 
   
 
   
  THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL
+
  GRIEL SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE
STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES...
+
  SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT.
  PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA.
+
EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES...
+
PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
  INITIAL TIME IS 11/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
+
  INITIAL TIME IS 15/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
   INITIAL... 13.8 S 08.7 E... 55 KT
+
   INITIAL... 12.0 S 4.0 W... 55 KT...INLAND/BECOMING ABSORBED
11/2100H... 13.8 S 08.0 E... 65 KT... CAT 1
+
  15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM
12/0300H... 13.8 S 07.4 E... 75 KT <!-- 12/0900H... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 80 KT -->
+
12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E... 85 KT... CAT 2 <!-- 12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E... 90 KT -->
+
13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E... 95 KT <!-- 13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E... 100 KT -->
+
13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...105 KT... CAT 3
+
14/1500H... 13.8 S 02.2 E...110 KT
+
  15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...105 KT
+
 
   
 
   
  WE DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ANOTHER
+
  REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 12.0 SOUTH 4.0 WEST. MAXIMUM
48 HOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP
+
  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA.
  TO 100 KM... 60 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.
+
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT.
+
  THIS WILL BE THE FINAL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER
 +
INFORMATION ON THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND THE NEW WEATHER FRONT
 +
PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL INFORMATION OR THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE'S
 +
BULLETINS.
 
   
 
   
  FORECASTER LAVAL
+
  FORECASTER HUNTER

Latest revision as of 07:01, 20 October 2006

Latest storm information
Extra-tropical Storm Griel
Extratropical storm
As of: 1200 local time June 15, 2145
Location: 12.0°S 4.0°W
About 450 km (280 miles) south-southeast of Vassfforcia la Serenísima, Vassfforcia
Maximum
winds:
100 km/h (65 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 970 hPa
Movement: NNW at 81 km/h (50 mph)
See final advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here

4510 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) FINAL ADVISORY 020
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 12 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145

GRIEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ALL REMAINING WARNINGS AND
WATCHES DISCONTINUED.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE GRIEL
WERE CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 SOUTH LONGITUDE 4.0 WEST... OR ABOUT
450 KM... 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VASSFFORCIA CITY, VASSFFORCIA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS 970 HPA...
AND IT HAS SUSTAINED GALES OF UP TO 110 KM/H... 65 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H... 50 MPH.

34-KNOT... OR STORM-FORCE... WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 350 KM... 
220 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES...
100 MM... ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER INLAND VASSFFORCIA. CITIES AND TOWNS
NEAR RIVERS SHOULD BE PREPARED IN CASE OF RIVERS FLOODING ITS BANKS.

GRIEL SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 15/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 12.0 S 4.0 W... 55 KT...INLAND/BECOMING ABSORBED
15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM

REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 12.0 SOUTH 4.0 WEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA.
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND THE NEW WEATHER FRONT
PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL INFORMATION OR THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE'S
BULLETINS.

FORECASTER HUNTER