Difference between revisions of "TD10 (2145)"

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{{Storm active2|name=Hurricane Griel
+
{{Storm active2|name=Extra-tropical Storm Griel
|category=cat2|type=Category 2 hurricane
+
|category=storm|type=Extratropical storm
|local time=0800
+
|local time=1200
|date=June 12
+
|date=June 15
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 13.9&deg;S 6.9&deg;E]<br/>About 2710 km (1695 miles) east of [[Puerto Nuevo]], [[Vassfforcia]]
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 12.0&deg;S 4.0°W]<br/>About 450 km (280 miles) south-southeast of [[Vassfforcia la Serenísima]], [[Vassfforcia]]
|winds=175 km/h (110 mph)
+
|winds=100 km/h (65 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
|pressure=969 hPa
+
|pressure=970 hPa
|movement=West at 26 km/h (16 mph)
+
|movement=NNW at 81 km/h (50 mph)
|advisory=latest}}
+
|advisory=final}}
 +
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
 
  4510 TCWC HPCOR
 
  4510 TCWC HPCOR
  HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 007
+
  TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) FINAL ADVISORY 020
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] [[Liverpool England Meteorological Service|MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE]]
 
  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
 
  MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
  7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145
+
  1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 12 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145
 
   
 
   
  GRIEL STRENGTHENS FURTHER AND IS NOW A 95-KT HURRICANE...
+
  GRIEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ALL REMAINING WARNINGS AND
 +
WATCHES DISCONTINUED.
 
   
 
   
  AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.S SOUTH
+
  AT 3 PM HPT... THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE GRIEL
LATITUDE 6.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 2710 KM... 1695 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
+
WERE CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 SOUTH LONGITUDE 4.0 WEST... OR ABOUT
NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 KM/H...  
+
450 KM... 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VASSFFORCIA CITY, VASSFFORCIA.
  110 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A HIGH-END CATEGORY TWO
+
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS 970 HPA...
  HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND COULD SOON
+
  AND IT HAS SUSTAINED GALES OF UP TO 110 KM/H... 65 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS
BECOME THE SEASON'S SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
+
  MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H... 50 MPH.
  WEST AT 26 KM/H OR 16 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 HPA/
+
MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
+
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
+
 
   
 
   
  I WILL HAVE TO BORROW HEAVILY FROM THE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION...  
+
  34-KNOT... OR STORM-FORCE... WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 350 KM...  
AWAITING GRIEL IS VERY LITTLE. THE 29-DEG C WATERS WILL CONTINUE WEST
+
  220 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES...
TO THE EDGE OF VENERATIO... WHEN IT DROPS OFF TO 27 DEG C. WIND
+
  100 MM... ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER INLAND VASSFFORCIA. CITIES AND TOWNS
  SHEAR IS LOW... 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT LAND IS IN THE WAY OR
+
  NEAR RIVERS SHOULD BE PREPARED IN CASE OF RIVERS FLOODING ITS BANKS.
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STORM TO IMPACT IT... YET. THEREFORE IT IS
+
  EXPECTED THIS PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE... AND
+
  GRIEL MAY BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER IN THE FORECAST
+
PERIOD.
+
 
   
 
   
  THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM... AND WE
+
  GRIEL SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE
HAVE ALREADY SEEN HOW UNRELIABLE THEY ARE IN THIS AREA OF THE HEARTLAND.
+
  SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT.
THEREFORE... THEY HAVE BEEN DISREGARDED.
+
+
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM...
+
175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE
+
  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 KM... 60 MILES
+
... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
+
MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR VASSFFORCIA.
+
+
THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL
+
STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES...
+
PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA.
+
EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES...
+
PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS.  
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST
  INITIAL TIME IS 12/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
+
  INITIAL TIME IS 15/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
   INITIAL... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 95 KT... CAT 2
+
   INITIAL... 12.0 S 4.0 W... 55 KT...INLAND/BECOMING ABSORBED
12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E...105 KT... CAT 3
+
  15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM
12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E...110 KT <!-- 13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E...115 KT... CAT 4 -->
+
13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...120 KT... CAT 4 <!-- 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...125 KT -->
+
13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...125 KT <!-- 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...130 KT -->
+
14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...135 KT <!-- 14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...135 KT
+
14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...140 KT... CAT 5 15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...140 KT... CAT 5 -->
+
15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT <!-- 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...120 KT
+
  15/2100H... 13.9 S 00.8 W...105 KT 16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT -->
+
16/0900H... 13.8 S 02.0 W... 95 KT
+
 
   
 
   
  REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 6.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
+
  REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 12.0 SOUTH 4.0 WEST. MAXIMUM
  WINDS NEAR 175 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 HPA...
+
  SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA.
  MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H.
+
  SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT.
+
  THIS WILL BE THE FINAL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER
 +
INFORMATION ON THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND THE NEW WEATHER FRONT
 +
PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL INFORMATION OR THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE'S
 +
BULLETINS.
 
   
 
   
  FORECASTER CALTS
+
  FORECASTER HUNTER

Latest revision as of 07:01, 20 October 2006

Latest storm information
Extra-tropical Storm Griel
Extratropical storm
As of: 1200 local time June 15, 2145
Location: 12.0°S 4.0°W
About 450 km (280 miles) south-southeast of Vassfforcia la Serenísima, Vassfforcia
Maximum
winds:
100 km/h (65 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 970 hPa
Movement: NNW at 81 km/h (50 mph)
See final advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here

4510 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) FINAL ADVISORY 020
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 12 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145

GRIEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ALL REMAINING WARNINGS AND
WATCHES DISCONTINUED.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE GRIEL
WERE CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 SOUTH LONGITUDE 4.0 WEST... OR ABOUT
450 KM... 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VASSFFORCIA CITY, VASSFFORCIA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS 970 HPA...
AND IT HAS SUSTAINED GALES OF UP TO 110 KM/H... 65 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H... 50 MPH.

34-KNOT... OR STORM-FORCE... WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 350 KM... 
220 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES...
100 MM... ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER INLAND VASSFFORCIA. CITIES AND TOWNS
NEAR RIVERS SHOULD BE PREPARED IN CASE OF RIVERS FLOODING ITS BANKS.

GRIEL SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 15/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 12.0 S 4.0 W... 55 KT...INLAND/BECOMING ABSORBED
15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM

REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 12.0 SOUTH 4.0 WEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA.
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND THE NEW WEATHER FRONT
PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL INFORMATION OR THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE'S
BULLETINS.

FORECASTER HUNTER