TD10 (2145)
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| Hurricane Griel | |
|---|---|
| Category 3 major hurricane | |
| As of: | 1400 local time June 12, 2145 |
| Location: | 13.9°S 6.2°E About 2420 km (1510 miles) east of Puerto Nuevo, Vassfforcia |
| Maximum winds: |
195 km/h (120 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 963 hPa |
| Movement: | West at 40 km/h (25 mph) |
| See latest advisory below. Past advisories and discussions available here | |
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 008 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 ..GRIEL NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PRUBDABLIA SOUTH TO COAST OF IBPORTIA... LOCAL SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL ADVISORIES FROM VASSFFORCIA ARE IN EFFECT... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 110 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES... HDCW... UHWF... HWS... HPD 26. HOWEVER... DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS... AS WELL AS A RAIN-MARRED QUIKSCAT PASS A WHILE AGO MEANS THAT WE'LL BE SETTING INITIAL INTENSITY AT 105 KT... MAKING GRIEL THE SEASON'S SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE AFTER YURI. AT 3 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LONGITUDE 13.9 SOUTH LATITUDE 6.2 EAST... OR ABOUT 2420 KM... 1510 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 195 KM/H... 120 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 40 KM/H OR 25 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 HPA/MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... CULMINATING IN LANDFALL VERY NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 300 KM... 190 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 KM... 65 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. THE FORECAST IS OMINOUS... AND IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE THE MODELS ARE WILLING TO CO-OPERATE WITH US. AFLE SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST GRIP ON THIS SYSTEM... BUT ITS INTENSITY IS WAY OFF. IN CONTRAST ... HDCW EXTRAPOLATED ISN'T VERY GOOD WITH THE TRACK... TAKING GRIEL AS FAR NORTH AS 13.0 NORTH AT 120 HOURS... WHICH IS QUITE RIDICULOUS... BUT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA ON INTENSITY. AS A RESULT... THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE MSHPC'S PREVIOUS ONE... WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWING THE HDCW. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS... YET... UNTIL GRIEL REACHES THE EDGE OF THE VENERATIO CONTINENT WHERE WATERS START TO DROP TO ABOUT 27 C. TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES... PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA. EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 12/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.9 S 06.2 E...105 KT... CAT 3 12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E...110 KT 13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E...115 KT... CAT 4 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...125 KT 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...130 KT 14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...135 KT 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...120 KT 16/1500H... 13.8 S 02.5 W... 75 KT...VERY CLOSE TO LAND REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 6.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 195 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT. FORECASTERS JARVINEN/HARDING
