TD10 (2145)

Current warnings and watches

4510 TCWC HPCOR
HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 013
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145

GRIEL ALMOST A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

AT 9 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING/HURRICANE WATCHES FOR
SOUTHERN MONTAURA/NORTHERN IBPORTIA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE WARNING.

AT 9 PM HPT ALL VENERATIO WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... AFTER
CONFIRMATION THAT ALL SCIENTISTS/BACKPACKERS EVACUATED.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
MONTAURA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE EDGE OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

AT 9 PM HPT A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN MONTAURA COAST... CIUDAD ESTADIO DE PUERTO NUEVO
... AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN IBPORTIA COAST NEAR THE CAPE.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WARNINGS
MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE
SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

GRIEL HAS SPED UP A BIT MORE... AND MAY MAKE LANDFALL SOONER
THAN EXPECTED. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ACCORDINGLY BEEN ADJUSTED.
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST INTENSITY HAVE BEEN MADE... FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE FORECAST.

AT 9 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH
LONGITUDE 3.4 EAST... OR ABOUT 1775 KM... 1110 MILES EAST OF PUERTO
NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
250 KM/H... 155 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL REMAINS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...
AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST AT 36 KM/H OR 23 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 914
HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. 

AN AIR FORCE (AFLE) RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
THIS SYSTEM. DETAILS WILL BE KNOWN BY THE 3 AM ADVISORY.

GRIEL IS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 520 KM... 325 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE
WEST AND NORTH...  WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 330 KM... 205 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 13/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 13.8 S 03.4 E...135 KT... CAT 4
14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...140 KT... CAT 5
14/0900H... 13.8 S 01.3 E...145 KT 
14/2100H... 13.7 S 00.9 W...155 KT 
15/0900H... 13.6 S 02.5 W...110 KT... CAT 3 NEAR LANDFALL 
15/2100H... 13.1 S 03.7 W... 45 KT... INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL
16/0300H...ABSORBED

REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 3.4 EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 250 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 914 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 36 KM/H.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

ITGV1 TCWC HPCOR
INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE REGARDING HURRICANE GRIEL (4510)
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN

INTERGOVERNMENTAL MESSAGE...
FOR THE GOVERNMENTS OF LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... AND VASSFFORCIA... AS WELL
AS OTHER HEARTLAND GOVERNMENTS CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
HURRICANE GRIEL...

***EMERGENCY***
GRIEL TOSSES UP A SURPRISE...
NOW MOVING MUCH QUICKER...
EMERGENCY EVACUATIONS ARE NOW NECESSARY. GRIEL WILL MAKE LANDFALL
IN ABOUT TWO DAYS AS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE STORM... DUE TO ITS
SPEED IT WILL HAVE LESS TIME TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS.

WINDSPEEDS OF UP TO 190 KM/H SHOULD BE EXPECTED DURING LANDFALL.
CIUDAD ESTADIO/PUERTO NUEVO SHOULD BE FULLY EVACUATED.

INLAND... A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHING IN FROM DASHAKE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB GRIEL... SO VASSFORCIA LA
SERENÍSIMA SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR. CITIES AND TOWNS NEAR RIVERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FLOODS.

ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
DIRECTOR MIKE JOHNS
JUNE 13, 2145